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8002 II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement

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8002 exam Dumps Source : II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement

Test Code : 8002
Test denomination : II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement
Vendor denomination : PRMIA
: 132 existent Questions

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PRMIA PRMIA II- Mathematical Foundations

Brandeis exotic enterprise college | killexams.com existent Questions and Pass4sure dumps

Robert R. Reitano is Professor of the follow of Finance at the Brandeis international enterprise school where he specializes in possibility administration and quantitative finance, and has previously served as Senior Director of academics. He likewise teaches as Adjunct Professor within the Wuhan college of technology faculty of Economics, and prior to now was traveling Professor at Reykjavik college faculty of company, and Adjunct Professor in Boston institution's Masters degree software in Mathematical Finance.

Dr. Reitano is a expert in funding approach and economic chance management, was Chief funding Officer of managed chance insurance industry (CRICO), and previously had a 29 yr career at John Hancock/Manulife in asset/legal responsibility possibility administration and funding strategy, advancing to govt vice chairman & Chief funding Strategist.

His research papers acquire seemed in a brace of journals and acquire received an Annual Prize of the Society of Actuaries and two biennial F.M. Redington Prizes awarded through the funding constituent of the Society of the Actuaries. His book, “Introduction to Quantitative Finance: A Math tool kit,” turned into posted by using The MIT Press in January, 2010, and translated into chinese language with the aid of fact & knowledge Press in March, 2015. he is self-publishing an advanced follow-on sequence, “Foundations of Quantitative Finance,” of which the first four books were published in 2017 and available on his website at http://www.robertrreitano.com/fqf/.

Dr. Reitano has served as Vice Chair of the Board of administrators of the professional chance Managers exotic association (PRMIA) and on the government Committee of the PRMIA Board, is presently a member of the PRMIA Boston steering Committee, the fiscal research Committee of the Society of Actuaries, and serves on different now not-for-profit boards and investment committees.

He has a Ph.D. in arithmetic from MIT, is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, and a Chartered commercial enterprise possibility Analyst.

levels:Massachusetts Institute of know-how, Ph.D.university of Massachusetts, Amherst, M.A.

Publications:

  • Reitano, Robert R.. Foundations of Quantitative Finance, booklet three: The Integrals of Lebesgue and (Riemann-)Stieltjes. First ed. Self-posted, 2018.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. Foundations of Quantitative Finance, e-book 4: Distribution services and Expectations. First ed. Self-published, 2018.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. Foundations of Quantitative Finance, e-book 1: Measure spaces and Measurable features. First ed. Self-published, 2017.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. Foundations of Quantitative Finance, publication 2: probability areas and Random Variables. First ed. Self-posted, 2017.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. Introduction to Quantitative Finance: A Math device gear (chinese edition). First ed. Shanghai, China: fact & wisdom Press, 2015.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. teacher's usher to chaperone Introduction to Quantitative Finance: A Math tool kit. First ed. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2010.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. Introduction to Quantitative Finance: A Math device package. First ed. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2010.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. pupil solutions manual to chaperone Introduction to Quantitative Finance: A Math device kit. First ed. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2010.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Yield Curve possibility management." handbook Of Finance. First ed. vol. Valuation, monetary Modeling, and Quantitative tools; Ed. candid J. Fabozzi. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2009. pp 215-232.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Two Paradigms for the Market cost of Liabilities." North American Actuarial Journal quantity 1. quantity four (1997): 104-122.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Non-Parallel Yield Curve Shifts and Stochastic Immunization." Journal of Portfolio management extent 22. quantity 2 (1996): 71-seventy eight.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Multivariate Stochastic Immunization idea." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XLV. (1994): 425-461.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Non-Parallel Yield Curve Shifts and Convexity." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XLIV. (1993): 479-499.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Non-Parallel Yield Curve Shifts and Immunization." Journal of Portfolio management volume 18. quantity three (1992): 36-forty three.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Multivariate duration evaluation." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XLIII. (1991): 335-376.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Multivariate Immunization idea." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XLIII. (1991): 393-428.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Non-Parallel Yield Curve Shifts and spread Leverage." Journal of Portfolio administration volume 17. number three (1991): eighty two-87.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "A Statistical evaluation of Banded facts with applications." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XLII. (1990): 375-404.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Non-Parallel Yield Curve Shifts and Durational Leverage." Journal of Portfolio administration quantity sixteen. number four (1990): sixty two-67.
  • Reitano, Robert R.. "Mortality pervade Valuation of Underwriting requirements." Transactions of the Society of Actuaries XXXIV. (1982): 277-322.
  • Awards & Honors:

  • (2017) Excellence in teaching Award for replete Time college: 2016-2017, overseas enterprise faculty.
  • (2008) Chartered industry chance Analyst (CERA) credential awarded by means of the Society of Actuaries as attention for being a "concept leader" in the field.
  • (2007) Excellence in teaching Award for replete Time college: 2006-2007, overseas industry school.
  • (1996) investment share of the Society of Actuaries1994-ninety five F.M. Redington Prize for "Multivariate Stochastic Immunization theory", Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, XLV, 1994.
  • (1994) investment share of the Society of Actuaries1991-93 F.M. Redington Prize for "Multivariate duration analysis", TSA, XLIII, 1991.
  • (1992) Society of Actuaries1991 Annual Prize for "Multivariate duration analysis", TSA, XLIII, 1991.

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    8002 II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement

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    8002 exam Dumps Source : II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement

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    II- Mathematical Foundations of Risk(R) Measurement

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    Stability of core language skill from infancy to adolescence in typical and atypical development | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Abstract

    Command of language is a fundamental life skill, a cornerstone of cognitive and socioemotional development, and a necessary ingredient for successful functioning in society. They used 15-year prospective longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to evaluate two types of stability of core language skill in 5036 typically developing and 1056 atypically developing (preterm, dyslexic, autistic, and hearing impaired) children in a multiage, multidomain, multimeasure, multireporter framework. A single core language skill was extracted from multiple measures at multiple ages, and this skill proved stable from infancy to adolescence in All groups, even accounting for child nonverbal intelligence and sociability and maternal age and education. Language skill is a highly conserved and robust individual-differences characteristic. Lagging language skills, a risk factor in child development, would profitably exist addressed early in life.

    INTRODUCTION

    Early language skills merge into higher-order verbal and mental functioning (1) and so acquire predictive validity for the development of speech, grammar, reading, academic achievement, and intelligence (2–4). Language skills likewise forecast behavioral adjustment in children (5, 6), even after controls for prior levels of conduct problems and taking into consideration children’s nonverbal intellectual functioning and performance, gender, and ethnicity, as well as their mothers’ verbal intelligence, education, parenting knowledge, and social desirability bias, and their families’ socioeconomic status (7, 8). Achievements in language and literacy open doors to education, occupation, income, and health (9).

    Individual differences are a central and manifest characteristic of child language (10–12), as children of the very chronological age vary dramatically in terms of their language skills. One fundamental conceptual issue that has framed debates about individual differences in theory and research across the history of language study and developmental science is their stability (13). Stability is consistency in individual differences over time. Stability in language therefore occurs when some children pomp relatively elevated levels of language at one point in time vis-à-vis their peers and continue to pomp elevated levels at a later point in time, while other children pomp consistently lower levels. Language is among the most complicated skills a child must master, and so understanding individual differences in language and their developmental stability is of compelling interest to professionals, practitioners, and parents.

    Here, they distinguish and study two kinds of stability in child language. One is homotypic stability, maintaining individual rank order in the very characteristic measured in the very metric over time. In language, vocabulary size exemplifies a characteristic that might exist indexed in the very way at different ages and pomp homotypic stability. The other is heterotypic stability, maintaining individual rank order on different manifest characteristics over time, where the different characteristics are theoretically related and presumed to share the very underlying construct. In language, the shared constructs, vocabulary size at one age and reading comprehension at a later age, might pomp heterotypic stability.

    The present study aims to forward their understanding of child language and its homotypic and heterotypic stability in several novel and substantial ways. (i) This study assesses stabilities of individual variation in language development in large and independent samples. (ii) The study begins earlier in life (6 months) and extends later in life (15 years) than ever before. (iii) The study follows a 13-wave granular longitudinal design that is unprecedented in developmental science. (iv) The study uses a wide compass of age-appropriate language domains (from common communication and vocabulary in infancy and early childhood to spelling, reading, and narrative in later childhood and adolescence) broadly construed across a diversity of methods and measures. (v) The study evaluates homotypic and heterotypic stabilities in typically developing children as well as children in four at-risk groups: preterm children and children diagnosed with dyslexia, autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), and hearing impairment. Improved survival and diagnosis acquire meant markedly increasing numbers of very preterm children and children with ASD, respectively, in the community.

    To accomplish these several aims, they identified four major challenges to the study of language stability in children and reached solutions to each. The first two challenges were to capture the multiple domain, method, and measurement approaches to language and their changing age appropriateness. Here, they define “language” broadly to comprise many domains (including phonology, lexicon, grammar, pragmatics, reading, spelling, and narrative), and each can exist assessed in multiple ways. Moreover, language differs phenotypically at different ages. The organizational perspective on development posits that the proper way to study development over time is to examine age-appropriate and therefore different, yet conceptually related, measures of the very underlying construct (14). In consequence, no single representation of language development across childhood is best, and no single approach to measurement can predominate. Rather, assessment selection must exist guided by tradition, tractability, goal, convenience, and age appropriateness. Developmental scientists today advocate the wisdom of applying multiple assessments and using converging operations of different strategies targeted to the very phenomenon.

    Thus, the first two challenges are to identify sensitive, dependable measures of language with different contents derivable from varying methods and sources that track child age appropriately. They met these challenges, first, by implementing caregiver reports and direct assessments of multiple different aspects of children’s language and, second, by extracting shared variance among different measures using latent variables (15). latent variables constitute a solution to the time-varying requirement of language development because they accommodate multiple age-appropriate indicators and different loadings for the very indicators on child language across age. latent variables capture empirical covariation among indicators that may manifest differently at each age. latent variables thereby identify what they summon here core language skill. As stated, language assessment across a prolonged developmental timescale perforce entails dynamically changing (age-appropriate) measures. Procedurally, some methodologies can evaluate children directly (as in testing), but others must (or even best) reckon on parental report because of the very young age of the child, the possibility of child reactivity to testing or observation, or the experienced and knowledgeable attitude of the child’s caregiver. Substantively, some measures (grammar or literacy) may exist appropriate only at inevitable ages, whereas others (vocabulary) may exist applicable across multiple ages.

    The third challenge was to pinpoint stability “in” the child. Stability is often readily ascribed to temporal consistency of a characteristic in the individual. However, valid attribution necessitates simultaneous examination of factors that pervasively influence stability or confound its interpretation. To assess whether core language skill is stable in itself or if any of several third variables that covary with child language underlie stability in core language skill, they assessed and accounted for multiple candidate endogenous (child nonverbal intelligence and sociability) and exogenous (maternal age and education) variables.

    The fourth challenge was to evaluate the robustness of stability. Language is a sensitive and demonstrable indicator of human development. Biological risks of many kinds are known to perturb the usual acquisition of language. As reviewed in greater depth in the Supplementary Materials, mean-level differences in language are common in atypically developing preterm children and children with dyslexia, autism, and hearing impairment when compared to typically developing children. However, less is known about how biological risk alters language stability. It is viable that the mechanisms that bear mean-level group differences in language likewise generate variability in stability. For example, stability of language in children with a language disability, such as dyslexia, may exist higher than stability in children without a disability because the processes that restrict language skills likewise maintain language-disabled children’s fixed order relative to one another. Here, they explored several biological and health moderators of language stability in children, including preterm birth, dyslexia, autism, and hearing impairment. Fuller discussions and justifications of the significance of stability, latent variables, and the moderators show in the Supplementary Materials.

    RESULTS Study 1: Long-term language stability in typical development

    Study 1 evaluated long-term language stability in typical development in a 13-wave prospective longitudinal study that used data from the Children in Focus (CiF) group of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) (16–18). The final study sample consisted of 925 (429 girls, 46.4%) white, term, monolingual singletons (M gestation = 39.75 weeks, SD = 1.29) free of dyslexia, autism, and hearing impairment. Mothers averaged 29.26 years (SD = 4.48; range, 14 to 43) at childbirth. This study sample was very diverse in terms of maternal education and social class. Table 1 presents the sample size and child age at each data collection wave.

    Table 1 Study 1: Sample size, child age, and language measures at each data collection wave.

    N represents the number of available observations. Except for wave 1 (child age in months), child ages are in years.

    Table 1 likewise presents language measures, scale scores, and sources used at each data collection wave. Table S1 shows the means, SDs, and ranges of the language measures and covariates for the total sample.

    We assessed the fitting of a structural model to the data to assess the common convergence of multiple measures on single latent variables of the core language skill, where applicable, and the stability between those language variables (measurement models are discussed in the Supplementary Materials). The a priori model fitting the data, scaled Yuan-Bentler (Y-B) χ2(618) = 2399.16, P < 0.001, robust comparative fitting index (CFI) = 1.00, standardized root signify square residual (SRMR) = 0.11, and root signify square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.00. design 1 presents the standardized solution of this stability model. Although SRMR was greater than the usual cutoff of 0.09 (19), it is sensitive to estimation technique and sample size (20) and model complexity (21). Given the excellent fitting indicated by the CFI and RMSEA as well as the large sample size and complicated model, they deemed it acceptable. All indicators of child language loaded significantly on their factors at each age, which indicated that diverse measures of language formed stable, single factors of core language skill at each age. The stabilities of language were large between successive waves except for one medium-sized stability between the 6-month variable and year 1 factor.

    Fig. 1 Study 1.

    Standardized solution for stability model (N = 925). Numbers associated with single-headed arrows are standardized path coefficients; numbers associated with dotted single-headed arrows are error variances or disturbances, the amount of variance not accounted for by paths in the model. Indicators of each latent variable are listed below the latent variable with their factor loadings. †Marker indicators of the latent factors (loadings set to 1 to scale and identify the factor). Covariances that were in the model, but not shown in the figure, included year 2 MCDI vocabulary and RDLS comprehension, standardized coefficient = 0.22, P < 0.001; year 5 RDLS comprehension and Initial Consonant Detection Test, standardized coefficient = −0.26, P < 0.001; year 5 Bus myth information and Bus myth sentence length, standardized coefficient = 0.78, P < 0.001; and year 9 word and nonreal word reading, standardized coefficient = 0.39, P < 0.001. Correlations of 0.10, 0.30, and 0.50 correspond to small, medium, and large effect sizes, respectively (78).

    On the basis of an extensive corpse of research on constructs associated with child language (22–25), and to guard against threats to validity, they controlled for four prominent constructs that might touch child language stability: children’s nonverbal intelligence and sociability and mothers’ age and education. They then re-evaluated the stability model, taking into consideration these covariates. design S1 shows the final covariate model; it fitting the data well: scaled Y-B χ2(670) = 2014.22, P < 0.001, robust CFI = 1.00, SRMR = 0.09, and RMSEA = 0.00. The attenuation of stability estimates ranged from 0.02 to 0.19 controlling for covariates. Stabilities of language were still medium to large between successive waves over the first 15 years of life.

    Study 2: Long-term language stability in typical and atypical development

    Study 2 replicated long-term language stability in an independent sample of typically developing children and evaluated long-term language stabilities in five atypically developing samples. The whole study sample consisted of 5167 (2594 girls, 50.2%) white, monolingual singletons. Mothers averaged 29.03 years (SD = 4.51; range, 15 to 44) at childbirth. This sample was likewise very diverse in terms of maternal education and social class. Of the 5167 children, 4111 were born term (M gestation = 39.78 weeks, SD = 1.29), were reported free of dyslexia and autism, and with tested bilateral usual hearing, served as the typically developing sample. Atypically developing samples included 435 moderate-late preterm (32 to 36 weeks’ gestation, M gestation = 35.05 weeks, SD = 1.19; range, 32 to 36) and 51 very preterm (<32 weeks’ gestation, M gestation = 28.92 weeks, SD = 1.75; range, 25 to 31) children, 322 children with dyslexia (M gestation = 39.53 weeks, SD = 1.80; range, 27 to 45), 89 children with autism (M gestation = 39.47 weeks, SD = 2.30; range, 27 to 42), and 221 children who had mild and/or moderate hearing impairment in one ear or in both ears (M gestation = 39.31 weeks, SD = 2.07; range, 27 to 42). Table S2 shows sample sizes and child ages for each group at each wave.

    Study 2 followed the very procedures, language measures, and covariates as those described in study 1, with three small exceptions: Children in study 2 were not tested in the Reynell Developmental Language Scales (RDLS) at 2 years 1 month, and they were not assessed for language at 4 or 5 years. Table S3 shows the means, SDs, and ranges of the language measures and covariates by groups.

    The a priori model for the whole sample fitting the data, scaled Y-B χ2(344) = 7417.69, P < 0.001, robust CFI = 0.94, SRMR = 0.07, RMSEA = 0.045, and 90% aplomb interval (CI) = 0.044 to 0.046. design S2 presents the standardized solution of this stability model. All indicators of child language loaded significantly on their factors at each age. The stabilities of language were medium to large between successive waves. Table 2 shows zero-order and partial correlations controlling for covariates between language measures across ages by group, and Table 3 shows point estimates of tolerable stability and their 95% CIs for these correlations. design 2 depicts these tolerable stabilities by group. In at-risk groups, All stabilities were medium or large except for the stabilities between 6 months and 1 year after accounting for covariates in moderate-late preterm children and in children with autism (Table 2). Most medium-sized stabilities were observed at the earliest ages, between 6 months and 1 year, and between 3 and 7 years across a longer 4-year time span. Atypically developing children’s language performance showed medium-to-large stabilities between successive waves over the span of 15 years, even accounting for child nonverbal intelligence and sociability and maternal age and education.

    Table 2 Study 2: Stability of language across age by groups.

    Numbers before the slashes portray correlations controlling for child age only (to control age variation within waves); numbers after the slashes portray correlations controlling for child age, nonverbal intelligence, sociability, and maternal age and education. Correlations of 0.10, 0.30, and 0.50 correspond to small, medium, and large effect sizes, respectively (78).

    Table 3 Study 2: tolerable stability of language by groups.

    Average stability represents the signify of correlation coefficients controlled for child age only. tolerable stability controlled for covariates represents the signify of partial correlations controlled for child age, nonverbal intelligence, sociability, and maternal age and education. The relatively small sample sizes in the very preterm and autism groups contributed to Somewhat diminished precision in the point estimates of tolerable correlation and, thus, wider 95% CIs.

    Fig. 2 Study 2.

    Average stabilities and their 95% CIs of language by group. tolerable stability represents the signify of correlation coefficients between language measures controlled for child age only. tolerable stability controlled for covariates represents the signify of partial correlations controlled for child age, nonverbal intelligence, sociability, and maternal age and education.

    DISCUSSION

    We investigated the longitudinal stabilities of child language from 6 months to 15 years using multiple age-appropriate methods, measures, and reporters, involving a wide variety of different language domains, in relatively large samples of typically developing children, as well as children born preterm and with childhood diagnoses of dyslexia, autism, and hearing impairment, in a prospective long-term microgenetic design. Individual differences command us about the distribution of language skill, and their stability tells us about the nature and ontogeny of that language skill. They likewise tested whether a diverse set of controls for third variables and background characteristics accounted for stability in child language.

    With respect to the four challenges posed at the outset, lucid evidence emerged for individual variation in a core language skill at each of 11 ages, for convergence of multiple indices of language at each age on latent variables representing a core language skill, for the homotypic and heterotypic stability of core language skill over the long term, and for the robustness of long-term stability of core language skill in atypically developing children with several different types of health risk.

    As with All developmental constructs, language (and its stability) is a joint product of biology and taste (26, 27). For example, a 2- to 12-year conduct genetics study identified genetic/biological and environmental/experiential sources of individual differences in developing language skills (28). Thus, a consistent personological characteristic, experience, or environment can carry stability. To address this point, they included child and maternal factors known to touch child language as covariates. Long-term stability was obtained separate and apart from both (nonlanguage) endogenous and exogenous covariates. The fact that stability of core language skill across so long a epoch began so early, was sustained so long, transcended several heterogeneous moderating factors, and was maintained over and above covariates points to a highly conserved and robust individual-differences characteristic in human beings. It further suggests that the search for mechanism(s) underlying stability of core language skill in children is likely to reward basic science as well as applied clinical research.

    Limitations to these study results include, among others, the weighty (if necessary) reliance on caregiver report in the early years and the limited (by necessity) number of language domains actually assessed relative to the viable number (see the Supplementary Materials). At three ages, only single language measures were collected; more varied early language measures, or having the very language measure assessed by multiple reporters, would strengthen the study. They did not measure (and so did not eliminate) All viable endogenous factors in children (brain function, motivation, and persistence), but they did measure and so controlled child age, nonverbal intelligence, and sociability as factors in stability. It is challenging to assess many aspects of language in very young children, and measurement of language at an early stage perforce cannot embrace All components of language (e.g., grammar). These data were likewise collected nascence in the 1990s; since then, the treatment of preterm and other at-risk children has changed. Except for hearing impairment, diagnoses of other atypicalities relied on maternal report. Because hearing impairment was measured only once, they accomplish not know whether hearing loss persisted or whether it originated at birth or later in development.

    Nonetheless, these results prompt several notable considerations. First, a corollary of the prevalent multidimensional and componential conceptualization of language might exist that phenotypically distinguishable language domains are independent of one another. Here, they confirmed that diverse indices of language deriving from different language domains, measures, methods, sources, and contexts, each of which showed individual variation, were positively associated across different ages (23, 29–34). On this basis, they could compute single latent variables of a core language skill at diverse ages. The significant amounts of variance accounted for by each latent variable at each age tested add to the validity of the stability model.

    Second, individual differences in core language skill were present from the first years of life, and so relatively stable individual differences in child language appear to exist established early. However, the lowest observed stability coefficient occurred between 6 months and 1 year. As children aged past 1 year, there was more stability (less inconsistency) in language; that is, stabilities from 1 to 13 years were large. A characteristic may not exist stable at one age in the life course but may stabilize at a later age. Generally, infancy and early childhood are thought to exist less stable (or predictive) periods in life (35), and people are thought to become increasingly consistent in relation to one another as they age (36, 37). Strong stability after 1 year implies that changes among children in their relative rank in core language skill later in development are rare. By contrast, the smaller stability coefficient between 6 months and 1 year indicates that nearly 90% of the variance in 1-year core language skill is not explained by 6-month language. This dissimilarity suggests that core language skill is relatively more ductile in early life. It is likewise viable that lower stability early in life reflects the rigor in validly assessing language in preverbal infants. In general, however, their findings underscore the flash of identifying lagging language skills early in life and promoting the child’s language environment well before formal schooling as a means to enhancing language skill.

    Large stability coefficients can mislead researchers and practitioners to conclude that language skill in children is set in infancy or toddlerhood. This is not necessarily the case. Stability is a key developmental barometer, but to exist stable does not signify to exist immutable or impervious to change or intervention. Focusing solely on stability in language overlooks or minimizes histrionic and normative developmental changes in signify level of language. The life-span perspective in developmental science specifies that human beings are open systems, and the plastic nature of psychological functioning ensures both consistency and change across the life course (38). The language skills of individual children (relative to their peers) still shift across time, and even large relative stability leaves significant amounts of common variance unaccounted for. Language is ultimately modifiable by taste or intervention. In language acquisition, development appears to equipoise the advantages of stability with the adaptive value of early susceptibility to experience.

    A third contribution of this study distinguishes homotypic stability (as of vocabulary between year 1 and year 15) from heterotopic stability (as between vocabulary in year 1 and literacy in year 13). The measures, reporters, and contexts for language sampling at the different ages perforce differed. From one point of view, this procedural variation attenuates stability. That is, heterotypic stability between different individual indices of child language likely represents lower-bound estimates of stability considering differences in assessment measures and procedures used at different times. Thus, heterotypic stability is conservative and probably underestimates rectify stability. By contrast, homotypic stability of identical measures and of latent variables (as they used here) may more closely approximate rectify stability in language development. Nonetheless, the heterotypic approach to stability assessment is steadfast not only to a developmental perspective but likewise to a systems perspective on the hierarchical integration of lower-order into high-order abilities with development (1). Literacy, the respite goal of their assessments, is conventionally understood as the faculty to read, write, spell, listen, and speak (39), but encompasses a progression of skills that begins with comprehension and expression of sounds and then words and culminates with grammar and reading and writing. The latent variable solution to the challenge of heterotypicality is therefore valuable to developmental science in general. An additional point with respect to heterotypic stability was the small associations uncovered in both studies between nonverbal measures of intelligence and language. Of course, to exist able to accomplish in an evaluation of even a nonverbal assessment requires some language faculty (if only to exist able to follow instructions), and the history of common psychological testing and specific intelligence testing tells us that nonverbal and verbal components of cognition are not strictly independent. For example, the Bayley Scales of Infant development (40) acquire a mental development index and a psychomotor development index that correlate, and the Wechsler (41) series of intelligence tests acquire verbal and performance intelligence quotient (IQ) indices that correlate. In their case, as is likewise typical, the shared variance in language and nonverbal intelligence measures was small (study 1 range, 2 to 25%; study 2 range, 6 to 21%).

    The fourth contribution of this study is analyses of stabilities of individual differences in the language of large numbers of children identified as preterm, dyslexic, autistic, and hearing impaired. From very early in development, core language skill was stable in each group. The findings therefore acquire implications for psycholinguists and psychologists, pediatricians and psychiatrists, practitioners and professors, and parents and the public. All stakeholders should exist cognizant that very young children who accomplish poorly relative to their peers are likely to continue to accomplish poorly at later ages, which reinforces the desirability of early assessment of language performance and the need for early intervention. Their data suggest that core language skill anticipates verbal and literacy achievements as child development unfolds. Through regular well-child checkups, pediatricians could identify children who acquire lagging language skills and connect them to early intervention services.

    Given the increasing flash of replication in science (42, 43), it is noteworthy that the results of the present studies internally replicate and then extend previous studies with single or fewer language measures taken over shorter periods of time (24).

    Last, the present empirical findings articulate with clinical practice; they distinguish between language screening and the accuracy of the multiple domain, measure, and source latent variable approach. Clinically, their approach to estimating child language as latent variables is not a quick tool for early diagnosis or screening; most clinicians accomplish not acquire the benefit of a flush array of measures or the technical support at hand to assess latent variables. A screening instrument may exist practically valuable, but the latent variable provides a more fundamental understanding of the core construct. Nonetheless, a multimeasure approach to child language has been applied productively in the past for predicting continued language detain (44–47). Notably, interventions that enhance language skills likewise improve behavioral regulation in children (48–50).

    MATERIALS AND METHODS Study 1: Long-term language stability in typical development

    Participants. The ALSPAC is a prospective, population-based, longitudinal transgenerational observational study investigating influences on health and development across the life course. All births in the former Avon Health Authority with an expected date of delivery between 1 April 1991 and 31 December 1992 were eligible. Of the initial 14,541 pregnancies, there were a total of 14,676 fetuses, resulting in 14,062 live births and 13,988 children who were alive at 1 year of age. Because only 2.6% of the ALSPAC sample was non-White (of those participants who provided this data point), and this group was heterogeneous (0.9% Asian, 1.0% Black, and 0.7% other), they focused on the majority group (51, 52). From the 12,075 White European participants in the ALSPAC data, the following exclusion criteria were followed (some children might drop into multiple categories): Children who (i) were twins (n = 306), (ii) were born preterm (born less than 37 weeks, n = 677), (iii) were hearing impaired (n = 233), (iv) had dyslexia (n = 332), (v) were diagnosed with autism (n = 91), and (vi) were bilingual or spoke a language other than English as their main language (n = 280) were excluded, resulting in 9794 children. An additional 8869 children were excluded from study 1 because they were not from the CiF cohort and/or did not acquire the additional CiF assessments used in the current study. Children who did not drop into the exclusion criteria and provided data at any of the data collection waves were included in study 1.

    Maternal education, collected at 32 weeks of pregnancy as an ordinal variable according to increasing levels of achievement, was varied: certificate of secondary education (13.0%), vocational (10.8%), O level (35.2%), A level (25.9%), and university degree (15.1%). Maternal social class ranged from unskilled (2.0%), partly skilled (7.8%), skilled manual (7.2%), skilled nonmanual (42.8%), managerial and technical (33.8%), to professional (6.4%).

    Procedures. Child language data were derived from caregiver reports and direct child assessments by trained psychologists during research clinics. The ALSPAC study website includes descriptions of measures used and scoring methods. In addition to the language measures circumstantial below, caregivers completed questionnaires that supplied demographic information about children’s health status, family language, and the like.

    Language assessments. They used data collected across 13 ALSPAC collection waves (Table 1). However, they aggregated data collected at ages 1 year 3 months and 1 year 6 months (two waves) into year 1 measures, and those collected at ages 2 years and 2 years 1 month (2 waves) into year 2 measures; thus, they studied 13 waves but calculated stability across 11 ages.

    Under 1 year

    Caregiver report: At age 6 months, caregivers completed an ALSPAC-modified Denver Developmental Screening Test (hereinafter referred to as modified DDST) (53) adapted for caregiver completion. The “communication” scores were used.

    Year 1

    Caregiver report: At age 1 year 3 months, the understand, vocabulary, and social (nonverbal) communication scores on the ALSPAC-modified MacArthur Communication development Inventories (hereinafter referred to as modified MCDI) (11) Words and Gestures were used. Twelve of the 28 questions (called “phrases” on the original MCDI) were asked for the understand scale, and the vocabulary checklist was sever by removing entire sections (i.e., toys, small household items, people, action words, words about time, pronouns, question words, prepositions and locations, and quantifiers), as well as some items from other sections from the original MCDI. Furthermore, some American English items were adapted or replaced with the British English equivalents (e.g., lorry instead of truck; sweater or jumper). Ten of the 12 social communication items (called “first communicative gestures” on the original MCDI) were asked. contemplate the Supplementary Materials for more details about the modified MCDI.

    Year 2

    Caregiver report: At age 2 years, the vocabulary, grammar, plurals, and tense scores on the modified MCDI Words and Sentences were used. The vocabulary checklist was sever by removing sound effects and animal sounds, small household items, and connecting words as well as by removing items from other sections from the original MCDI. The 4 grammar items (called “word endings” on the original MCDI), 5 irregular plurals (called “word forms—nouns” on the original MCDI), and 20 past tense (called “word forms—verbs” on the original MCDI) items were unmodified.

    Direct assessment: At age 2 years 1 month, children in the CiF cohort were administered the RDLS (54). The RDLS comprehension scale measures a child’s verbal comprehension by administering a series of activities where the child is asked to respond to and carry out a series of spoken tasks. The raw score was used.

    Year 3

    Caregiver report: At age 3 years 2 months, the vocabulary, plurals, past tense, and word combination scores on the modified MCDI Words and Sentences were used. The vocabulary checklist was the very as the one used at year 2. The 5 irregular plurals (called “word forms—nouns” on the original MCDI) and 20 past tense (called “word forms—verbs” on the original MCDI) items were unmodified. In addition, two items that require whether the child uses plurals by adding “-s” to the respite of words or uses past tense by adding “-ed” to the respite of words were included in the plurals and past tense scales, respectively. The word combination items were modified from the 14 “complexity” items of the original MCDI. Two items were dropped, and some items were adapted to add a third option (e.g., two feet, two foots, two foot) or to change the remonstrate (e.g., “that’s my book” versus “that’s my truck”).

    Year 4 (CiF cohort only)

    Direct assessment: At age 4 years 1 month, four verbal subscale scaled scores (M = 10 and SD = 3) of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence—Revised UK Edition (WPPSI) (41) were used: information, comprehension, vocabulary, and similarity.

    Year 5 (CiF cohort only)

    Direct assessment: At age 5 years 1 month, the Bus myth Test (55), a screening test of verbal expression, was administered. The assessment involves children listening to a spoken narrative about a bus, accompanied by pictures depicting the events that occur in the story. Children then retell the myth with the pictures as support. The child’s narrative is recorded orthographically and scored for information content (number of material pieces of information given) and sentence length (mean sentence length of the five longest sentences). In addition, the very RDLS comprehension scale that was used at 2 years 1 month was repeated at age 5 years 1 month. Last, the Initial Consonant Detection Test (56) asked children to identify which two of three words illustrated by line drawings began with the very initial consonants. A total of 10 trials were given, and the number of rectify responses was recorded.

    Year 7

    Direct assessment: At age 7 years 6 months, reading was assessed with measures on the basis of the Wechsler Objective Reading Dimensions (WORD) (57). Pictures and words were used to assess decoding and word reading. The child was shown a series of four pictures. Each picture had four short, simple words underneath it. The child was asked to point to the word that had the very nascence or ending sound as the picture. This request was then followed by a series of three pictures, each with four words beneath, each starting with the very letter as the picture. The child was asked to point to the word that correctly named the picture. The child was then asked to read aloud a series of 48 unconnected words that increased in difficulty. Total numbers of rectify responses were used. Spelling was assessed by a series of 15 words that were piloted and chosen by the ALSPAC team (e.g., chin, brought, and telephone). Each word was read aloud on its own, within a specific sentence incorporating the word, and lastly read lonesome again. The child was asked to write down the spelling of the word even if he or she was just guessing. The total number of words spelled correctly was tallied and used. In addition to the WORD, the Phoneme Detection Task (58) comprised 40 test items of increasing difficulty. It involved asking the child to repeat a word and then to content it again, but with some share of the word (a phoneme or number of phonemes) removed. Total numbers of rectify responses were used.

    Year 8

    Direct assessment: At age 8 years 6 months, four verbal subscale raw scores on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children—III UK Edition (WISC) (59) were used: information, comprehension, vocabulary, and similarity. Two subtests of the Wechsler Objective Language Dimensions (WOLD) (60) were used to measure listening comprehension and oral expression. Listening comprehension involves the child listening to the tester reading aloud a paragraph about a displayed picture. The child then answers questions on what was heard. The child has to invent inferences about what was read to them and reply the questions verbally. expressive vocabulary was assessed by a series of 10 pictures. The total numbers of rectify responses on comprehension and expressive vocabulary were each tallied and used.

    Year 9

    Direct assessment: At age 9 years 6 months, reading was assessed using the basic reading subtest of the WORD (57). Children were asked to read aloud 10 existent words (e.g., huge, union, and unusual), followed by 10 nonreal words (e.g., duter, uningest, and smape). Both the existent and nonreal words were selected from a larger list of words taken from research conducted by Nunes et al. (61). Total numbers of rectify responses on existent and nonreal words were each tallied and used. The revised Neale Analysis of Reading faculty (NARA II) (62) was used to assess children’s reading skills and comprehension. In this test, children read aloud short passages of stories that resulted in an accuracy score, and their answers to a series of questions about the content of the myth resulted in a reading comprehension score.

    Year 13

    Direct assessment: At age 13 years 6 months, word reading efficiency was assessed by word and pseudoword tests of the Test of Word Reading Efficiency (TOWRE) (63). Children were asked to read out strident 104 existent words (e.g., complete and wonderful), followed by a list of 63 nonreal words (e.g., glack and framble). Total numbers of rectify responses on existent and nonreal words were tallied; because of a very elevated correlation between the two reading scores, r = 0.81, a signify standard score was computed and used in analysis.

    Year 15

    Direct assessment: At age 15 years 6 months, the vocabulary subscale raw score on the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI) (64) was used.

    Covariates. They assessed the possibility that child nonverbal intelligence (29) and sociability (65), both of which are known to exist associated with child language, and mothers’ age and education, both of which are likewise known to exist associated with child language, would account for some of the stability of language competence and performance. Specific covariates (child nonverbal intelligence and sociability) were presumed to exist associated with child language variables concurrently or prospectively (but not retrospectively). common covariates (maternal age and education) were presumed to exist associated with All child language variables, regardless of the child’s age.

    Children’s nonverbal intelligence was assessed three times at clinic visits. At age 4 years 1 month, the performance IQ score of the WPPSI (41) was used. At age 8 years 6 months, the performance IQ score of the WISC (59) was used. At age 15 years 6 months, nonverbal intelligence was measured by the Matrix Reasoning subtest of the WASI (64).

    Child sociability was obtained from caregiver reports across data collection waves. At ages 6 months, 1 year 6 months, and 2 years 6 months, the social achievement scores of the adapted DDST (53) were used. At ages 3 years 2 months, 4 years 9 months, and 5 years 9 months, the sociability scores from the Emotionality, Activity, Sociability Temperament questionnaire (66, 67) were used.

    Maternal age at childbirth was calculated from the date of delivery and the mother’s date of birth recorded at enrollment. Educational attainment was obtained from a questionnaire sent home at 32 weeks gestation.

    Statistical analysis. The SDs and ranges of All language measures (table S1) indicated considerable variation, as is common in the literature and prerequisite to assessments of stability. Variable distributions were examined for univariate normality (68), and transformations were applied to improve distributions. Because of the compass of child age at each wave, they explored correlations of child age with All raw test scores to determine whether age adjustment was warranted. Age-adjusted scores were computed for All language variables that showed significant concurrent correlations with child age and were used in structural equation models (SEMs).

    Language stability was evaluated by fitting SEMs using maximum likelihood functions (MLFs) and followed the mathematical models of Bentler and Weeks (69), as implemented in EQS 6.1 (70). SEM is a robust tool for assessing stability because latent variables capture shared variance among their indicators, and so variance uniquely associated with rater bias, random measurement error, or specific error (variance arising from some characteristic unique to a particular indicator that was not accounted for by the factor) is relegated to its error term.

    Missing data points (20.4% of the total data) were handled in EQS using replete information maximum likelihood with a two-stage Expectation-Maximization estimation of the structured model and the MLF (71). Monte Carlo studies acquire demonstrated the common superiority of the structured-model EM method implemented in EQS 6.1 compared to other techniques to recoup missing data (72, 73). In the course of fitting SEMs, they evaluated Mardia (74) coefficients of multivariate kurtosis and the cases that contributed most to those estimates, as well as the stability of parameter estimates and the cases that contributed disproportionately to parameter estimates. No significant problems with influential cases emerged. Model fitting was assessed using scaled Y-B χ2 statistic, robust CFI, standardized SRMR (75), and RMSEA. Cutoff values ≈0.95 for CFI and ≈0.09 and ≈0.06 for SRMR and RMSEA, respectively, are indicative of a relatively apt fitting between the hypothesized model and observed data (21). They gave greater weight to the incremental/approximate fitting indices than to χ2 because the χ2 value is known to exist sensitive to sample size (76) and the size of the correlations in the model (77). Standardized path coefficients are presented in text and figures.

    For correlations and standardized path coefficients, they adopted conventional magnitudes of r corresponding to small, medium, and large effect sizes as ≈0.10, 0.30, and 0.50, respectively (78, p. 61). All stabilities were large except two medium-sized stabilities between 6 months and year 1 and between the single observed variables at 13 and 15 years.

    Next, they explored whether specific covariates were associated with child language measures. They calculated correlations of (i) year 4 WPPSI performance IQ with years 4, 5, 6, and 7 language variables; (ii) year 8 WISC performance IQ with years 8, 9, and 13 language variables; (iii) year 15 WASI matrix reasoning with vocabulary; (iv) child sociability with concurrent language variables from ages 6 months through year 5; and (v) year 5 child sociability with All language variables from years 7 through 15. Children’s nonverbal intelligence significantly correlated with All language variables (r values ranged from 0.15 to 0.50, All P ≤ 0.001); however, children’s sociability related to only some language variables, with significant correlations ranging from 0.07 (P < 0.05) to 0.46 (P < 0.001). To test whether the stability model held controlling for specific covariates and the two common covariates, they re-evaluated the a priori model (Fig. 1) using the adjusted language scores with the shared variance with specific covariates removed and adding the two common covariates as exogenous variables to the SEM. Direct paths from maternal age and education to All eight language-latent variables, and the three observed variables at 6 months and 13 and 15 years, were added to the model.

    Study 2: Long-term language stability in typical and atypical development

    Participants. Table S2 presents sample sizes and child ages at each data collection wave by groups. Maternal education ranged from secondary education (13.2%), vocational (8.5%), O level (36.3%), A level (26.4%), to university degree (15.6%). Maternal social class ranged from unskilled (1.4%), partly skilled (7.7%), skilled manual (6.3%), skilled nonmanual (42.6%), managerial and technical (35.4%), to professional (6.6%).

    At age 7, hearing function was assessed using air conduction absolute tone audiometry carried out by audiologists and trained physiology staff during a clinic visit. All measurements were carried out as described in Hall et al. (79), and hearing thresholds were measured in both ears according to audiometry procedures recommended by the British Society of Audiology (80). At age 9, children’s primary caregivers were asked whether they were ever told that the child has “dyslexia” or “autism,” “Asperger’s syndrome,” or “autistic spectrum disorder.”

    Procedures. They used data collected across 10 ALSPAC collection waves. However, they aggregated data collected at ages 1 year 3 months and 1 year 6 months (2 waves) into the year 1 measures; thus, they studied language stability across nine ages (fig. S2).

    Statistical analysis. The SDs and ranges of All language measures (table S3) again indicate considerable variation. A language stability model was fitting on the total sample by using SEM with EQS 6.1 (70). contemplate study 1 for SEM applications. Age-adjusted scores were used in analysis, and missing data points (11.7% of the total data) were handled in EQS using replete information maximum likelihood. In the full-sample stability model (fig. S2), All stabilities were medium or large.

    Given the complexity of the stability model and the relatively small sizes of the at-risk comparison groups, they generated the generalized least squares factor scores from the SEM and retained them for further analysis. Study 2 language stability of the at-risk subgroups was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients. Missing data points for the three observed language variables at 6 months and 13 and 15 years were imputed in the control and in each at-risk group (missingness ranged from 7.9 to 17.8% of the total data) separately using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm (81) in SPSS (82). First, zero-order correlations showed language stability before taking specific and common covariates into consideration. Then, language stability was reassessed using partial correlations controlling for common and specific covariates. For specific covariates, they first calculated correlations of (i) year 8 WISC performance IQ with years 8, 9, and 13 language variables; (ii) year 15 WASI matrix reasoning with vocabulary; (iii) child sociability with concurrent language variables from ages 6 months through year 3; and (iv) year 3 child sociability with All language variables from years 7 through 15. Again, child nonverbal intelligence significantly correlated with All language variables (r values ranged from 0.25 to 0.46, All P < 0.001), and child sociability related to only some language variables with significant correlations ranging from 0.03 (P < 0.05) to 0.51 (P < 0.001). Unstandardized residuals of the related language variables controlling for significant specific covariates, where applicable, were computed before performing partial correlations. Last, language stability was reassessed by computing partial correlations of adjusted language scores (with the shared variance with specific covariates removed) controlling for maternal age and education.

    SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS

    Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/11/eaat7422/DC1

    Study 1 Supplementary Text

    Study 1 Materials and Methods

    Study 1 Measurement Models

    Study 2 Supplementary Text

    Table S1. Study 1: Child language measures and covariates: Descriptive statistics.

    Table S2. Study 2: Sample size and child age at each data collection wave.

    Table S3. Study 2: Child language measures and covariates: Descriptive statistics.

    Fig. S1. Study 1.

    Fig. S2. Study 2.

    References (83–144)

    This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant Use is not for commercial odds and provided the original work is properly cited.

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  • Acknowledgments: They are grateful to All the families who took share in this study, the midwives for animate in recruiting them, and the whole ALSPAC team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, and nurses. Funding: The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (grant ref. 102215/2/13/2) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC. This publication is the work of the authors, and M.H.B. will serve as guarantor for the contents of this paper. This research was likewise supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NICHD, USA, and an International Research Fellowship in collaboration with the Centre for the Evaluation of development Policies (EDePO) at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), London, UK, funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 695300-HKADeC-ERC-2015-AdG). Author contributions: M.H.B., C.-S.H., and D.L.P. conceptualized the study. R.M.P. curated the data. C.-S.H. analyzed the data. M.H.B. and C.-S.H. wrote the original draft of the manuscript. D.L.P. and R.M.P. reviewed and edited the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare that they acquire no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data used for this submission will exist made available on request to the Executive (alspac-exec{at}bristol.ac.uk). The ALSPAC data management map describes in detail the policy regarding data sharing, which is through a system of managed open access.


    Voya monetary Announces Updated monetary Targets, Including Plans for Significant Growth in Adjusted Operating Earnings Per Share | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

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    -- Adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) growth of at least 10% annually through 2021, on a normalized1 basis, to exist driven by organic growth, cost savings and capital deployment -- Organic growth: Voya's core businesses -- Retirement, Investment Management and Employee Benefits -- to drive elevated character and sustainable earnings; expected total free cash tide conversion of 85% to 95% -- Cost savings: Voya is targeting an additional $100 million of run-rate savings, incremental to expense savings previously announced, expected by the respite of 2020 -- Capital deployment: Continued share repurchases planned; Voya's common stock dividend expected to augment to achieve at least a 1% dividend yield by mid-2019 -- Adjusted operating earnings per share growth to exist achieved while maintaining strong returns and generating an enterprise operating recrudesce on equity of 13% to 15%2 -- Management to argue Growth Plans and monetary Targets at Investor Day NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--November 13, 2018--

    Voya Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VOYA), announced today its plans to achieve an adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) annual growth rate of at least 10% (on a normalized basis) through 2021. The company expects to achieve its map through a combination of organic industry growth, cost savings and share repurchases. Senior management will argue further details about Voya's growth strategy at the company's 2018 investor day meeting nascence at approximately 1 p.m. ET today.

    "With their competitive advantages and renewed focus on their chosen businesses, Voya monetary is poised to achieve significant earnings per share growth of at least 10% annually over the next three years," said Rodney O. Martin, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer of Voya Financial, Inc. "Importantly, they believe that they can generate this level of adjusted operating EPS improvement while likewise achieving an operating recrudesce on equity of between 13% and 15%."

    Organic Growth

    "The foundation of their plans starts with their higher-growth, higher-return, capital-light Retirement, Investment Management and Employee Benefits businesses. With their established positions in the workplace and with institutions, they will continue to expand their offerings to existing clients, while likewise attracting original customers. In addition to executing on growth plans that are specific to each business, they will continue to leverage opportunities to deliver holistic, comprehensive solutions across their businesses. With their significant compass and strong brand awareness, they are well positioned to animate their customers achieve their goals with confidence," Martin added.

    On a normalized basis, Voya expects its Retirement industry to grow earnings by 4% to 7%; Investment Management to grow earnings by 5% to 8%; and Employee Benefits to grow earnings between 7% and 10%, in each case annually through 2021. Voya will likewise continue to benefit from earnings in its Individual Life segment, which Voya recently announced will cease original industry sales efficacious Dec. 31, 2018.

    "Voya has a propitious profile and diverse businesses that are expected to generate high-quality and sustainable earnings as well as significant free cash flow. Specifically, they await total free cash tide conversion of 85% to 95%, which includes the benefit of improved free cash tide from their Individual Life segment," said Martin.

    Cost Savings

    "Over the past several years, they acquire demonstrated their faculty to execute and become more efficient as we've narrowed their focus and simplified their company. They acquire likewise leveraged their Continuous Improvement program to achieve efficiencies and forward operational excellence. At the very time, they acquire invested in their company, ensuring that they are well positioned to grow.

    "Based on their track record, they believe that they can achieve an additional $100 million of cost savings by the respite of 2020 -- this is in addition to their previously shared target of $110 to $130 million of cost savings by the middle of 2019 and the $20 million of expected savings from their recent conclusion to cease sales of individual life insurance," added Martin.

    Capital Deployment

    "We will continue to exist apt stewards of shareholder capital and build upon the nearly $5 billion in excess capital that they acquire returned to shareholders via stock buybacks. With an expected strong free cash tide that will support excess capital generation, their capital deployment plans will continue to emphasize share repurchases.

    "In addition to share repurchases, they likewise intend to augment their common stock dividend to a dividend yield of at least 1% by mid-2019. The board of directors will determine the appropriate level of dividend as they continue to execute on share repurchases at these attractive valuation levels. As they forward their plans next year and beyond, they may further grow the dividend to deliver even greater shareholder value as well as attract original investors seeking a higher-yielding dividend," said Martin.

    "We are excited about their plans and are committed to pile upon their financial, operational and cultural improvements over the past few years as they focus on achieving their vision to exist America's Retirement Company," concluded Martin.

    Webcast and Slide Presentation

    Voya monetary will host an audio and video webcast of its 2018 investor day nascence at approximately 1 p.m. ET today. The webcast, which will embrace a slide presentation, will exist available live via the internet and can exist accessed at investors.voya.com. Participants should link the webcast at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the event to download and install any necessary software. A replay of the webcast will exist available at investors.voya.com starting at approximately 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2018.

    About Voya Financial(R)

    Voya Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VOYA), helps Americans plan, invest and protect their savings -- to score ready to retire better. Serving the monetary needs of approximately 14.3 million individual and institutional customers in the United States, Voya is a Fortune 500 company that had $8.6 billion in revenue in 2017. The company had $543 billion in total assets under management and administration as of September 30, 2018. With a lucid mission to invent a secure monetary future viable -- one person, one family, one institution at a time -- Voya's vision is to exist America's Retirement Company(R) . Certified as a "Great site to Work" by the powerful site to Work(R) Institute, Voya is equally committed to conducting industry in a way that is socially, environmentally, economically and ethically responsible. Voya has been recognized as one of the 2018 World's Most Ethical Companies(R) by the Ethisphere Institute; one of the 2018 World's Most Admired Companies by Fortune magazine; as a member of the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index; and as a "Best site to Work for Disability Inclusion" on the Disability Equality Index by Disability:IN. For more information, visit voya.com. follow Voya monetary on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter @Voya.

    Forward-Looking and Other Cautionary Statements

    This press release contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements embrace statements relating to future developments in their industry or expectations for their future monetary performance and any statement not involving a historical fact. Forward-looking statements Use words such as "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "intend, " "plan," and other words and terms of similar acceptation in connection with a discussion of future operating or monetary performance. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement due to, among other things, (i) common economic conditions, particularly economic conditions in their core markets, (ii) performance of monetary markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels, (v) persistency and lapse levels, (vi) interest rates, (vii) currency exchange rates, (viii) common competitive factors, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, such as those relating to Federal taxation, state insurance regulations and NAIC regulations and guidelines, including those affecting reserve requirements for variable annuity policies and the Use of and viable application of NAIC accreditation standards to captive reinsurance entities, those made pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, and the U.S. Department of Labor's final rules and exemptions pertaining to the fiduciary status of providers of investment advice, or any amendments thereto, (x) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities, and (xi) their faculty to successfully manage the separation of the fixed and variable annuities industry that Voya sold to VA Capital LLC on June 1, 2018, including the transition services, on the expected timeline and economic terms. Factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement likewise embrace those described under "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and monetary Condition - Trends and Uncertainties" in their Annual Report on form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2017, which the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 23, 2018 and in their Quarterly Report on form 10-Q for the three-month epoch ended Sept. 30, 2018, which the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Nov. 1, 2018.

    VOYA-IR

    ______________________________ (1) When presented on a "normalized" basis, amounts are adjusted to exclude (i) unlocking of deferred acquisition costs, value of industry acquired, and other intangibles, (ii) prepayments and alternatives income to the extent such income is above or below their long-term expectations, and (iii) in the case of 2018 monetary results against which Adjusted EPS growth targets are measured, investment management adjusted operating earnings associated with the fixed and variable annuities industry that Voya sold to VA Capital LLC on June 1, 2018. (2) Operating recrudesce on equity excludes deferred tax assets (including AMT receivables) and accumulated other comprehensive income but includes All other sources of shareholders' equity under GAAP. In distinction to the definition of adjusted operating recrudesce on equity used by the company from 2013 -- 2017, this measure includes the operating results of All company segments, including its Corporate segment.

    View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181113005998/en/

    CONTACT: Voya Financial, Inc.

    Media:

    Christopher Breslin, 212-309-8941

    christopher.breslin@voya.com

    or

    Investors:

    Michael Katz, 212-309-8999

    IR@voya.com

    SOURCE: Voya Financial, Inc. Copyright industry Wire 2018

    Campbell Soup Company (CPB) CEO Keith McLoughlin on Q1 2019 Results - Earnings summon Transcript | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) Q1 2019 Results Earnings Conference summon November 20, 2018 10:00 AM ET

    Executives

    Ken Gosnell - VP, Finance Strategy and IR

    Keith McLoughlin - Interim President and CEO

    Anthony DiSilvestro - SVP and CFO

    Analysts

    Bryan Spillane - Bank of America

    David Driscoll - Citi

    Chris Growe - Stifel

    Ken Goldman - JPMorgan

    Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse

    Steve Strycula - UBS

    Andrew Lazar - Barclays

    Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge

    Operator

    Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Campbell Soup First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference summon may exist recorded.

    I would now relish to interject your host for today's conference, Mr. Ken Gosnell, Vice President, Finance Strategy and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

    Ken Gosnell

    Thank you, Crystal. apt morning, everyone. Welcome to the first quarter earnings summon for Campbell Soup's fiscal 2019. With me here in original Jersey are Keith McLoughlin, Interim CEO; and Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO.

    As usual, we've created slides to chaperone their earnings presentation. You will find the slides posted on their website this morning at investor.campbellsoupcompany.com. This summon is open to the media, who participate in a listen-only mode.

    Today, they will invent forward-looking statements, which reflect their current expectations. These statements reckon on assumptions and estimates, which could exist inaccurate and are subject to risk. delight advert to Slide 2 or their SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause their actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. Because they Use non-GAAP measures, they acquire provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, which is included in the appendix of this presentation.

    With that, I'll turn the summon over to Keith McLoughlin, Interim President and CEO. Keith?

    Keith McLoughlin

    Thanks, Ken, and apt morning, everyone.

    Today, they will argue the progress we've made executing the significant actions they announced on August 30, following their comprehensive Board led strategy and portfolio review and in that context, review their first quarter results. As they stated at that time, fiscal 2019 will exist a transition year for Campbell, as they select steps to turn around the Company and the year-over-year results they reported today reflect that.

    This morning, I will give you an overview of the steps we're taking to implement their original strategy and in that context, share my perspective on their performance. Then, their Chief monetary Officer, Anthony DiSilvestro, will walk through the monetary details of the quarter and their fiscal 2019 guidance which they reaffirmed today.

    Moving to Slide 4. As you'll recall, they announced on May 18, that the Board was launching its own strategy and portfolio review process, one with outside advisors and which All options were on the table. Together with those advisors, they evaluated a replete slate of potential options for Campbell, including optimizing their portfolio and divesting assets, splitting the company in two and selling the entire company.

    After considerable analysis and evaluation and as discussed on August 30, the Board concluded that at this time, the best path forward to maximize shareholder value and maintain flexibility going forward is a three-pronged strategy. First, optimize their portfolio and focus on their core businesses with an emphasis on execution; two, divest inevitable non-core businesses in order to focus the Company, while significantly paying down debt; and three, to augment their successful multi-year cost saving efforts, while driving improved asset efficiency.

    We acquire not wasted time since then and we're doing what they said they would do. They are actively making Campbell a highly focused company that is built around their two core North American businesses, Snacks and Meals and Beverages. These are strong businesses, where they acquire the prerogative to win with franchise brands, best-in-class product and significant market positions.

    I will score into more specifics about each industry in a moment, but I want to share a specific sample of the greater operating discipline, resulting from their increased intensity, particularly in their core North American operations. build simply, they are improving their execution and delivering on their commitments to create a stronger, more focused and more disciplined company.

    In late September, they had illustrious in their 10-K, that they were experiencing significant higher than expected costs, as well as considerable shipment delays across their Meals and Beverages portfolio, because of supply chain challenges they faced early in the quarter related to the start-up of a original distribution hub in Ohio.

    This facility, which is operated by a third-party, will ultimately enable us to serve a broader customer foundation and provide greater service flexibility. During that very time period, their plant in Maxton, North Carolina, literally became an island as the floodwaters rose from Hurricane Florence.

    In response, they deployed across functional team led by supply chain experts and sales leaders that displayed fabulous teamwork and moved with urgency to overcome these issues with their third-party logistics provider.

    They made substantial improvements in the final month of the quarter to recapture the vast majority of these sales. It was a herculean effort and is indicative of original Campbell that we're building. This focus is carrying over into other areas of the Company as well.

    Let's start with soup. poignant to Slide 5. Within their Meals and Beverages business, their top priority is to stabilize and improve the performance of their soup business. As they acquire discussed, soup is a powerful industry and they are taking it back to basics approach, leveraging their market leading brands and driving improved execution across the portfolio.

    In fiscal 2019, they are resetting the value proposition for U.S. soup, this starts with increased focus on their key brands, each of which we're managing with rigor and according to a specific portfolio role. Campbell's, Swanson and Chunky are being managed to maximize margins and cash tide and Pacific and their well U.S. brands are being managed to drive strong profitable growth.

    Despite the sales decline in the quarter, there are many reasons we're optimistic about soup, including greater operating disciplined, improved merchandising and a original management team, that is poignant quickly and decisively to improve performance. The supply chain challenges I mentioned earlier manacle the start of the quarter, but soup gained momentum as the quarter progressed and soup sales grew in October.

    As they behold to improve performance in soup, they outlined several areas of actions, when they spoke in August and let me highlight them here. First, their emphasis on adjusting expense gaps is showing signs of progress, despite the challenging retail environment. This year they acquire more competitive pricing on key segments as they enter soup season versus a year ago.

    Second, they are optimizing their merchandising with increased frequency and breadth compared to a year ago. And third, they acquire refocused their marketing efforts around a original crusade with the iconic Campbell's brand front and center.

    In October, they launched a original contemporary crusade that features their Campbell's condensed, as the recipe starter for luscious and affordable family meals. They are driving efficiencies in their spend and focusing their marketing dollars on their most profitable brands to both augment purchase intent and strengthen long-term brand equity.

    We launched soup advertising later than usual this past quarter due to the distribution facility start-up issues that I previously mentioned. As they saw to ensure marketing aligned with distribution capability.

    Soup advertising began appearing in the ultimate two weeks of October, compared to September a year ago. While soup consumer marketing spend was lower than a year ago, they await their soup marketing investments to normalize in the second quarter as they enter the heart of the soup season.

    Additionally, their Swanson broth industry had a particularly apt quarter. Swanson sales and share growth are driven by category momentum, expanded distribution and a original marketing crusade that likewise started in October. share of their back to basics approach on soup, includes selected consumer-driven innovation. In the quarter, they launched Campbell's Well Yes! sippable soups for affordable on-the-go snacking to attract original consumers to the category. It's early days, but the launch has gained strong distribution and early velocity is ahead of their expectations.

    Turning to Pacific. They are pleased with the performance of the brand and the progress of the integration. They are taking steps to augment their production efficiency and distribution capabilities at Pacific, as it continues to accomplish against this portfolio role to drive strong profitable growth and in line with their acquisition expectations.

    Our focus on operating discipline has been elevated across the division, particularly on soup. The result is a more efficacious Meals and Beverages leadership team that is executing well. Stabilizing soup is their top priority, given the flash of this business. They are executing the plans they outlined back in August with increased emphasis on expense realization, optimized merchandising support, targeted consumer-driven innovation and more efficacious and contemporary marketing focus on the iconic Campbell's master brand.

    We are doing the prerogative things and are encouraged that their plans are nascence to acquire an impact. As they said ultimate quarter in fiscal 2019, they will rebase soup and strengthen their value proposition in the marketplace. They acquire made progress against that objective to start the year. That said, they acknowledge that there's much more work to exist done and it will select time to fully stabilize the business.

    I want to talk about the focus and execution in their snacking industry and the combination of the Pepperidge Farm and Snyder's-Lance portfolios to form Campbell Snacks. The combination of these powerful portfolios establishes Campbell's as a leading player in the attractive and growing U.S. snacking market. They continue to contemplate opportunities to drive significant top line growth and margin expansion in Campbell Snacks, as they invest and innovate across their portfolio of leading brands, capture cost synergies, and create an enhanced culture of performance and accountability.

    The two businesses that comprise Campbell Snacks are robust. This quarter marks the 16th consecutive quarter of organic growth in Pepperidge Farm, and the underlying Snyder's-Lance industry is strong as well with share growth in six of their eight key brands this quarter, including Lance, KETTLE, Cape Cod, Pretzel Crisps, Emerald, and elevated double-digit growth in their Late July brand.

    As we've discussed previously, it's worth noting that prior to the closing of the acquisition, the former Snyder's-Lance management team executed SKU rationalization and expense realization map that didn't materialize, which acquire been a headwind to consumer takeaway, particularly for the Snyder's of Hanover brand.

    We are driving innovation across Campbell Snacks by executing against key consumer snacking insights. The combination of Pepperidge Farm and Snyder's-Lance enables us to leverage a vast manufacturing network to create original innovations such as Goldfish, epic crunch. A original line in that older kids, which was developed in Pepperidge Farm's kitchens and made Snyder's-Lance bakery.

    There are numerous examples where we're transferring expertise across the portfolio, such as applying their existent food knowledge to drive reinventions and products relish Lance crackers with color source from plants, and Pop furtive made with natural flavors.

    As they integrate and drive synergies, they are diving into the portfolio role of these brands across their portfolio and making capital investments to support their growth franchises. Specifically, they are expanding capacity in Goldfish, Milano, and KETTLE, All of which are examples of brands that are growing and driving share growth in their respective categories.

    From a value capture standpoint, their Snyder's-Lance integration and synergy actions are on track. The team is delivering synergies across the business, including and manufacturing procurement, warehousing and distribution, as well as, streamlining their managing processes. In supply chain, we're leveraging their scale to reduce input cost and they are accelerating their investments in automation to improve their cost structure.

    We're delivering on their integration and synergy commitments, and they await continued progress going forward. They are confident in the long-term growth and margin expansion potential for Snyder's-Lance.

    We acquire created a single Campbell snacks leadership team accountable for their North American snacks industry that is applying a consumer first approach to growth, delivering against their integration efforts, and fully leveraging their deep knowledge of snacking that spans both Pepperidge Farm and Snyder's-Lance.

    Moving to Slide 7. The second leg of their original strategy is to divest non-core assets. This serves a number of purposes, it allows us to accelerate their focus significantly pay down debt and strengthen their equipoise sheet.

    On August 30, they announced their objective to inaugurate this divestiture process by selling Campbell International and Campbell Fresh as they focus on their core businesses in North America. They started to work immediately after their ultimate call, to inaugurate the process of divesting these two businesses, their monetary advisors acquire been actively soliciting.

    As expected, there has been very strong initial interest from a compass of potential strategic and monetary buyers for these assets, because both are solid businesses made up of powerful brands. They continue to believe these businesses will exist a greater value to original owners, who are focused on these categories and geographies.

    Combined, these businesses represented approximately $2.1 billion in annual net sales in fiscal 2018. They intend to Use the proceeds to pay down debt and combined with ongoing strong free cash flow, they point to achieve a target leverage ratio of 3x net debt to EBITDA by the respite of fiscal 2021.

    We continue to await to declar buyers for these businesses before the respite of the fiscal 2019. But their overwriting goal remains to elope a highly disciplined process on a timeline that will achieve the maximum value for these attractive assets. As they likewise stated in August, they are not complete, they will continue to review additional actions to further focus and refine their portfolio against their go-forward strategy.

    Moving to Slide 8. The third leg of their strategy is something that they acquire delivered on effectively over the ultimate several years, cost savings. On August 30, they announced plans to sever another incremental $150 million from their overall cost as well as steps to drive asset efficiency in working capital and capital expenditures, as they build a leaner, more focused, and more agile company.

    We acquire already started on this work and acquire continued to deliver meaningful cost savings with an additional $45 million realized in the first quarter. This remains a core Campbell strength and they are confident in their faculty to deliver the replete $945 million in cumulative annualized savings by the respite of fiscal 2022.

    Our focus on cost reductions and asset efficiencies animate drive improved cash flow, which continues to allow us to recrudesce value to their shareholders with $107 million in quarterly cash dividends, while continuing to invest in their core business. As they said previously, fiscal 2019 will exist a transition year for Campbell as their original management team guided by the Board operationalizes their plans to focus their portfolio and dramatically improve their execution.

    I want to emphasize that the actions we're implementing are the prerogative ones at this time to create shareholder value. The Board and management team are committed to behold deleveraging the Company, maintaining their investment grade credit rating and rewarding their shareholders through long-term earnings growth and competitive cash dividends.

    I likewise want to reiterate that the Board remains committed to evaluating All strategic options if they can demonstrably enhanced value above and beyond the significant actions that they are currently undertaking.

    With that as context, they are pleased with their performance in the quarter, they are improving their execution and their results, we're on track with their expectations, leading us to reiterate their fiscal 2019 guidance for this transition year. We're hard wiring their operating plans to their key priorities, KPIs, employee objectives, and compensation practices to build a culture of performance, we're enhanced speed, conclusion making, and accountability are foundational.

    We are breaking down silos and working together in original ways across the company as evidenced by the continued successful integrations of both Snyder's-Lance and Pacific and the speed at which they acted to fix the supply chain issues at the original distribution center, this is quite encouraging.

    As you can contemplate they are poignant quickly to implement the plans they announced back in August and they are making measurable progress across All of their key priorities.

    And now, let me turn it over to Anthony for a discussion of their monetary results. Anthony?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Thanks Keith.

    Before getting into the detail, I'll invent a few comments on their performance. Overall, their results were in line with their expectations and they are on track to achieve their fiscal year goals. As they disclosed in their 10-K in connection with the transition to their original U.S. warehouse optimization model, they experienced start-up issues at their original Findlay, Ohio distribution hub early in the quarter, which were impacting their faculty to ship product to their customers.

    The Findlay facility, which is operated by third-party logistics provider serves as the Midwest hub for distribution or a majority of their Meals and Beverage product. In October, they are able to recoup quickly from the start-up challenges and despite $12 million of incremental cost, they finished the quarter with monetary results that were in line with their original expectations.

    As they called out on the August 30 call, they expected the first quarter to exist negatively impacted by a change in revenue recognition, the voluntary recall of flavor blasted Goldfish and some continued pressure on U.S. soup as they implement their promotional programs for the upcoming soup season.

    The repercussion from a change in revenue recognition which accelerates the timing of expense related to promotional programs at a 1 point negative repercussion on net sales, a 50 basis point repercussion on obscene margin, and a 4 point negative repercussion on adjusted EBIT, the equivalent of $0.04 per share.

    Our organic sales declined 3%, including the 1 point negative repercussion from the change in accounting. And while the Goldfish brand acquire recovered well, they experienced some negative repercussion from the July 2018 voluntary recall of flavor blasted Goldfish. Excluding these two items that were more one-time in nature, the equipoise of the sales decline was mostly U.S. soup.

    During the quarter, they implemented their promotional programs for the upcoming soup season and are encouraged by the improving trend. They continue to achieve their cost savings goals against their aggregate program, which includes Snyder's-Lance. They generated $45 million of incremental cost savings in the quarter, bringing the program to-date total to $500 million.

    As we've discussed, they are now targeting to compass $945 million of costs and synergy savings by the respite of 2022. They are pleased with the progress made on the acquisitions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods. The integration of these businesses is on track and the monetary performance is meeting their expectations. Combined, the acquisitions were neutral to their adjusted EPS results in the quarter.

    Given their first quarter performance and outlook for the equipoise of the year, they are reaffirming their guidance for fiscal 2019. And in connection with their map announced August 30, they intend to divest their international snacking industry and the Campbell Fresh business. Together with their monetary advisors, we've initiated divestiture processes and acquire seen significant buyer interest for both businesses.

    I will now review their circumstantial results. For the first quarter, net sales on an as reported basis increased 25% to approximately $2.7 billion, reflecting the recent acquisitions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods, and as I mentioned, organic sales declined 3%.

    Adjusted EBIT decreased 2% to $410 million, excluding the 4 point negative repercussion from the change in revenue recognition, adjusted EBIT increased 2%, driven primarily by the incremental earnings from the recent acquisitions, partially offset by 12 point decline on the foundation industry reflecting obscene margin pressure.

    Adjusted EPS decreased 14% or $0.13 to $0.79 per share, reflecting adjusted EBIT declines in the foundation business, including the $0.04 negative repercussion from the change in revenue recognition, partly offset by lower adjusted tax rate. In aggregate, the acquisitions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods had no net repercussion on adjusted EPS in the quarter.

    Breaking down their net sales performance for the quarter, organic net sales declined 3%, driven by higher promotional spending and lower volume. Lower volumes were primarily the result of decline in U.S. soup. Promotional spending negatively impacted net sales by two points, one point of which was the result of the original revenue accounting guidance, which accelerates the timing of promotional expense.

    The repercussion of the accounting change is not expected to exist material for the fiscal year. The equipoise of the augment in promotional spending primarily reflects increased spending on the U.S. soup business. There was a one point negative repercussion on net sales from currency translation this quarter. And the recent additions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods to the portfolio, added 29 percentage points, bringing their as reported net sales augment to 25%.

    Our adjusted obscene margin percentage decreased 4.9 point in the quarter. Excluding a 190 basis point dilutive repercussion from the acquisitions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods, their adjusted obscene margin percentage declined three points, while the acquisitions are reducing their overall margins as they add them to the portfolio, they are confident that the margins on these businesses will augment over time as they integrate them into Campbell and achieve targeted cost and synergy savings.

    Cost inflation and other factors had a negative repercussion of 290 basis points, a majority of which was cost inflation, which on a rate basis increased approximately 4.5%, reflecting higher prices on steel cans, vegetables, wheat, dairy and resins as well as the continuing escalation of transportation and logistics costs.

    The equipoise of the margin decline was driven primarily by higher than expected distribution costs associated with the start-up of the Findlay, Ohio, distribution facility. These negative drivers were partly offset by benefits from their cost savings initiatives. Higher promotional spending including the 50 basis points repercussion of the change in revenue recognition, had a negative repercussion of 140 basis points.

    Portfolio mingle had a negative repercussion of 20 basis points. Pricing had a positive repercussion of 30 basis points, reflecting actions taken in their Global Biscuits and Snacks segment. Lastly, their supply chain productivity program, which is incremental to their cost savings program contributed 120 basis points of margin improvement. All in their adjusted obscene margin percentage decreased to 31.6%.

    Moving on to other operating items. Adjusted marketing and selling expenses increased 12% in the quarter, due primarily to the repercussion of recent acquisitions, probably offset by lower advertising on the foundation industry within Meals and Beverages. The reduction in spending reflects a reallocation of support from advertising to promotional spending, reduced support levels in light of the distribution challenges, faced earlier in the quarter and a later start to their U.S. soup campaigns relative to the prior year.

    Adjusted administrative expenses increased 19% to $163 million, due primarily to the repercussion of recent acquisitions. Excluding the repercussion of acquisitions, adjusted administrative expenses increased slightly, reflecting costs associated with the current proxy contest.

    For additional perspective on their performance, this chart breaks down their adjusted EPS change between their operating performance and below the line items. Adjusted EPS decreased $0.13 from $0.92 in the prior year quarter to $0.79 per share in the current quarter.

    On a currency neutral basis, adjusted EBIT had a negative $0.01 repercussion on EPS, reflecting lower EBIT on the foundation business, inclusive of a $0.04 negative repercussion from the change in revenue recognition, partly offset by the addition of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods. Net interest expense increased by $63 million, a $0.16 negative repercussion to EPS, driven by an augment in the debt levels to fund their recent acquisitions and reflecting the repercussion of higher interest rates.

    Our adjusted EPS benefited from a lower adjusted efficacious tax rate, increasing EPS by $0.04. Their adjusted efficacious tax rate was 24.3% in the quarter, which declined by 3.9 percentage points, due primarily to the lower U.S. federal tax rate, offset partly by the propitious settlement of inevitable U.S. state tax matters in the prior year quarter.

    And lastly, there was a $0.01 negative repercussion on EPS from currency translation this quarter, completing the bridge to $0.79 per share. And although not shown on the chart, in aggregate, the acquisitions of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods were neutral to adjusted EPS.

    Now turning to their segment results. In Meals and Beverages, organic sales declined 5%, driven primarily by declines in U.S. soup, Prego and Canada partly offset by gains in V8 beverages. The segment sales were negatively impacted by one point from the change in revenue recognition. Excluding the benefit from the acquisition of Pacific Foods and the repercussion from the change in revenue recognition, sales of U.S. soup decreased 6%, driven by declines in ready-to-serve and condensed soups, partly offset by gains in broth. The sales decline in U.S. soup, reflects continued competitive pressure across the market and increased promotional spending.

    We are encouraged by the improved trends through the quarter as they implemented their promotional plans for the upcoming soup season, while consumer takeaway dollar sales declined 7% in the quarter, they were comparable to the prior year in the ultimate four-week period. They are likewise encouraged by the performance of V8 beverages, which achieved sales gains in the quarter driven by V8 +Energy and the core vegetable juice business.

    Segment operating earnings declined 11% to $294 million. The decrease was driven primarily by a lower obscene margin percentage, partly offset by lower advertising expenses. obscene margin performance reflects the repercussion of higher levels of cost inflation, increased promotional spending, including the repercussion from the change in revenue recognition and higher than expected distribution costs associated with the Findlay, Ohio distribution facility start-up.

    Here's a behold at U.S. wet soup category performance and their share results as measured by IRI. For the 52-week epoch ending October 28, 2018, the category showed a decline, decreasing 40 basis points. Their sales in measured channels, including Pacific on a pro forma basis declined 4.6%, as they continue to wrap the major customer issue that they started to physiognomy a year ago. They had a 58.6% market share for the 52-week period, down 250 basis points from the year ago period.

    Private label grew share, increasing 160 basis points, primarily reflecting gains and brought finishing at 15.9%. All other branded players collectively had a share of 25.5%, increasing 90 basis points. Although not shown on the chart for the four-week epoch ending October 28, 2018, their sales, the measured channels were up 20 basis points, a notable improvement versus the latest 52-week period.

    In Global Biscuits and Snacks sales were $1,218 billion in the quarter, including $554 million from the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance. delight note that we've moved the Latin America industry to the Meals and Beverages segment and acquire adjusted prior epoch results. Excluding the benefit from the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance, and the negative repercussion from currency translation, organic sales decreased 1%, driven primarily by declines in Kelsen cookies in the U.S.

    Sales of Pepperidge Farm, Goldfish crackers increased slightly in the quarter. As expected sales of Goldfish crackers were negatively impacted by the voluntary product recall in July 2018, although they are very pleased with how the brand has recovered.

    On Snyder's-Lance, it is valuable to note that the SKU rationalization and expense realization initiatives are having a negative repercussion on sales growth, particularly on the Snyder's of Hanover brand. While SKU rationalization is having a short-term repercussion on sales, this action will result in a more streamlined and profitable portfolio going forward.

    Snyder's-Lance sales performance was in line with their expectations with the core brands achieving sales growth as measured by consumer takeaway and with six of the eight core brands achieving market share gains. Segment operating earnings increased 32% to $154 million, reflecting a 45 point benefit from the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance. Excluding the repercussion of the acquisition, segment operating earnings declined, due primarily to a lower obscene margin, reflecting higher level of cost inflation.

    In the Campbell Fresh segment, organic sales decreased 1% to $232 million driven by declines in refrigerated soup, Garden Fresh Gourmet, and Bolthouse Farms refrigerated beverages, partly offset by gains in carrots. Segment operating loss was $3 million compared to a loss of $6 million in the prior year. Although modest, the stick this $3 million year-over-year improvement reflects improved operational efficiency in beverages, partly offset by the repercussion of refrigerated soup volume decline.

    As disclosed in their non-GAAP reconciliation in corporate, they recorded a non-cash impairment pervade on the fixed asset of their refrigerated soup plant as they consider a potential sale as share of their planned divestiture of the Campbell Fresh segment.

    On a companywide basis, cash from operations increased to $231 million compared to $188 million in 2018, as lower working capital requirements and lower payments and hedging activities were probably offset by lower cash earnings.

    The cash outlay for capital expenditures, with $111 million, $53 million higher than the prior year, reflecting the timing of cash payments as well as investment to support their cost savings initiatives and the addition of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods to the portfolio. They continue to forecast CapEx of approximately $400 million for fiscal 2019. They paid dividends totaling $107 million compared to $111 million in 2018.

    As previously announced, they suspended their share repurchases in the second quarter of fiscal 2018 as a result of the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance. Net debt of $9.6 billion is up from $3.3 billion a year ago, reflecting the repercussion of the $6.1 billion acquisition of Snyder's-Lance, and the $700 million acquisition of Pacific Foods, partly offset by positive cash tide generated by the foundation business.

    As share of their August 30 plan, they acquire initiated processes to divest their international snacking industry and Campbell Fresh and we'll Use the proceeds from these divestitures to reduce debt and improve their leverage ratio.

    Now, I'll review their 2019 guidance, which is unchanged from August 30. As they did previously, they are providing guidance based on their existing portfolio of businesses and likewise on a pro forma basis, assuming planned divestitures were completed as of the start of the fiscal year with proceeds used to reduce debt. I'll start with the guidance pre-divestitures. They await sales to augment to a compass of $9,975 billion to $10,100 billion as they benefit from the incremental repercussion of both the Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods acquisitions.

    This top line guidance implies that organic sales are expected to decline slightly, while we're seeing improved trends as they implement their promotional programs, they anticipate that U.S. soup sales will decline in 2019. In addition, they await sales in Campbell Fresh to exist negatively impacted as two major private label refrigerated soup customers will in-source production starting in 2019.

    We await adjusted EBIT to exist in the compass of $1,370 billion to $1,410 billion as declines on their foundation industry are mostly offset by the incremental acquisition repercussion of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods. Both of these acquired businesses are performing in line with their expectations and portray significant long-term growth opportunities.

    The EBIT decline on the foundation industry reflects the anticipated decline in organic sales, the negative repercussion of 4% to 5% cost inflation on obscene margin, and the negative repercussion from higher incentive compensation, which was significantly reduced in 2018.

    We are forecasting a decline in their obscene margin percentage of approximately 2 point as cost inflation and higher promotional spending, are only partly offset by 3% cost productivity and benefits from cost savings. obscene margin trends are expected to improve in the back half of the year for several reasons.

    A positive repercussion from the change in accounting, wrapping the Snyder's-Lance acquisition, pricing actions were currently implementing in the marketplace, phasing of productivity gains and some moderation of year-on-year cost inflation. They await adjusted EPS to exist in the compass of $2.45 to $2.53 per share. The delta between EBIT and EPS performance is primarily driven by the interest expense associated with the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance and Pacific Foods.

    We await interest expense in the compass of $375 million to $390 million, and an adjusted tax rate of approximately 25%. And against their cost and synergy target, they await to retrieve $120 million of savings. They are likewise providing forecast for 2019 on a pro forma basis, assuming the planned divestitures were completed as of the nascence of the fiscal year and based on the Use of estimated proceeds to reduce debt. As you can contemplate on the chart, their sales foundation decline to about $8 billion, adjusted EBIT to a compass of $1,230 billion to $1,270 billion, and adjusted EPS to a compass of $2.40 to $2.50.

    The overall anticipated dilution from the divestitures is modest given the current level of profitability of the Campbell Fresh division. As I've stated, we've initiated divestiture process for both Campbell International and Sea Fresh and acquire seen significant buyer interest for both businesses.

    That concludes my remarks. And now, I'll turn it back to Keith.

    Keith McLoughlin

    Okay. Thank you, Anthony.

    And before they open up the summon to questions, I just want to touch on the CEO search process. The Board has been extremely thorough to invent sure it selects the prerogative candidate to lead Campbell through this valuable time. This is a very attractive role to a number of highly qualified internal and external candidates.

    The Board continues to acquire extensive discussions with a number of candidates who possess deep taste in consumer packaged goods and a strong track record of proven results. The Board continues to await to denomination a permanent CEO by the respite of the calendar year.

    In summary, we're seeing the early signs of improved execution and performance this quarter. We're confident that their plans provide a lucid strategic path forward and a strong foundation for executing the Campbell turnaround. They are squarely focused on their map and will not exist distracted from their mission, executing the map to maximize value for All shareholders, much more work lies ahead, but we're pleased with the overall pace of their progress.

    And now, let me turn it back to Ken to open up the summon for your questions. Ken?

    Ken Gosnell

    Thanks Keith.

    We will now start their mp;A session. Since they acquire limited time, I request out of courtesy to the other callers, delight require only one question at a time. Okay, Crystal.

    Question-and-Answer Session

    Operator

    [Operator Instructions] And their first question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Your line is open.

    Bryan Spillane

    So I guess my question is just around the cost savings, I consider it was $45 million of savings in the first quarter and you're still guiding to a $120 million for the year and I think, Anthony, you said that you expected more productivity in the back half. So could you just square, I guess if we're running at $45 million in the first quarter, why the savings will exist more than $120 million for the replete year?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, sure, Bryan. So as you pointed out, they are at $45 million against the replete year guidance of $120 million. So that's about two-thirds of that will Come through cost, the other third through SG&A. My observation earlier about cost savings was meant to address productivity.

    So in addition to these cost savings program, they target 3% of cost - of productivity savings every year and it's those savings that are a slight bit more aspect to the back half than the first half this year. So that was what, I was addressing.

    Bryan Spillane

    So the comps productivity was less than 3%, than in the first quarter?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from David Driscoll from Citi. Your line is open.

    David Driscoll

    I wanted to require a key, you got a bit of a chance here to contemplate Campbell's from the Chief Executive Officer role, obviously you've been on the Board for years. You acquire $945 million laid out in the synergy capture, $500 million already achieved, $445 million left to go. Simple math would content that this is worth more than a $1 a share, in terms of obscene repercussion to Campbell's. Consensus estimates, brace of years out Keith, they only Go up relish $0.20.

    The question to you is, if you got a chance to behold at these savings, are they real? accomplish you believe in this bucket share or better in savings potential? And then how much of this can actually Go down to the bottom line on Campbell's or accomplish you foresee most or All of this needing to exist reinvested back into the industry to restore top line growth?

    Keith McLoughlin

    Yes, that's a apt question. I consider you partly answered a lot of that actually. So I consider these numbers are existent and having been on the Board for a few years, I've watched the Company execute on these cost initiatives and now, of course, been with the management team here, I contemplate why they're apt at it. It's a very disciplined and robust process and they track it rigorously and, of course, now in the middle of those meetings.

    So my aplomb that we'll accomplish it as high, as you know to score to the $945 million, you acquire the $0.5 billion of the current program which is getting immediate to being complete or at least meeting that number. We've got the $295 million from Snyder's-Lance and we're reporting on that frequently as you can imagine. And they build the challenge up for another $150 million.

    So I would content that of the $945 million, that's $150 million - additional $150 million is where they got to score more traction, we've got to score more lot of side, we've got obviously work under way to accomplish that, but there is more work to accomplish there. But Anthony, you've been leading the spacious share of those for us for several years and now with the new. Can you add to that?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, totally agree Keith, that we're highly confident against the $945 million. I consider the other way to Come out is in the context of their long-term growth algorithm and how accomplish you score from 1% to 2% sales to 4% to 6% EBIT growth.

    And that delta, implies about 50 basis points of margin expansion every year and if you accomplish the math against where they are today to the $945 million, it implies a slight bit of - slight over half of those cost savings need to Go to expand margins. The other chunk of it can Go back into the industry to reinvest to grow the brand.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Chris Growe from Stifel. Your line is open.

    Chris Growe

    Anthony, you outlined $12 million in cost, I consider it was related to the Ohio facility. I want to understand in the first quarter, if you were to add up to the Ohio costs or the incremental freight cost, the hurricane cost, did you give a number for what the totality of those costs were? And then as you offset that, obviously, marketing was slight lower, was that the main offset to that incremental costs in the quarter?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, that's pretty close. I consider if you behold at the $0.13 decline in EPS and back out taxes and currency, you've got a $0.17 decline, of that $0.17 decline, $0.04 is revenue recognition, $0.03 is Findlay, the hurricane did not really acquire a significant repercussion in All said and done. And then the equipoise of it which is $0.10, their combination of the obscene margin pressure, the lower organic sales, partly offset by the reduction in advertising and consumer spend is how you score there.

    Chris Growe

    And did you say, how much the advertising, just that piece that was down in the quarter?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    No, I consider in the press release, they say, we're up 13% selling and marketing and 28 points of that augment is the acquisition. So we're down double-digit.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

    Ken Goldman

    When you talk on Slide 5 about your map to stabilize soup, there's some, I consider low hanging fruit there at the prerogative drag in terms of expense gaps and merchandising and so forth. But what I consider is still to me not apparent in the map is how you will drive consumers to score more excited by and interested in your core soup product? intuition I'm proverb that is the only innovation I contemplate here is on the Well Yes!, sipping soup side, which is not that spacious of a product, right?

    And then on Slide 23, you talk about everyone want what's next, so there's not a single product in the next column, that's a core Campbell Soup or Chunky product also. So I guess, what I'm trying to design out what is the map to spark sustained consumer interest in the core Campbell Soup red and white can as well as Chunky, any animate there would be, I consider very useful?

    Keith McLoughlin

    Sure. It's apt question. Of course, you acquire - at the respite of the day, what we're going to score paid for in soup is material consumer innovation. So you're prerogative on target with the question. We've got to bring more material innovation at a faster rate to consumers. We're going to accomplish that in a brace of ways.

    One is a spacious theme, as you know is focus, right. How accomplish they focus on those core brands, those core categories, where they acquire strength, where they got more competition. And so the redeploy or deploy the R&D dollars against those key categories. It's going to exist in areas relish convenience.

    It's going to exist in areas relish meal preparation, right. How accomplish you deal - how accomplish you select away that 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM nightmare that happens in every household, relish what's for dinner, it's going to exist in sound and vegetables, cooking - leveraging their cooking expertise, prerogative and helping people deal with that timeframe to content here's an easy way to select some chicken or salmon and with this ingredients, with these capabilities invent a sound meal for your family. So it's going to exist in those areas.

    Actually we've got lots of trim stuff happening, I'm very excited to score together with you All during Investor Day to pomp you some of the stuff that Roberto and his team acquire under the hood there, but it's not yet ready for prime time, but your point is well made and well taken, it's - we're going to paid for material innovations, that could bring excitement back into the category.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

    Robert Moskow

    I guess I had a similar question as Ken did, but it was specifically about millennials. I thought, I recollect 3 months ago that there was going to exist a more concerted effort to target younger consumers with the Campbell brand and specifically in cooking. And I didn't contemplate much here in terms of how you're doing that maybe your reply is the very wait until the Analyst Day.

    But then secondly, what I did contemplate in the market a lot, was a lot of 10 for 10 - 10 cans of condensed soup for $10, what was the conclusion to Go back to that, in the past I've heard that the Company really didn't want to discount that deeply in condensed, is that changing now?

    Keith McLoughlin

    Yes, I would content actually to your first share of your question around the millennials, they are - probably maybe you haven't seen yet, but they started in the ultimate two weeks of October, a original crusade to buy condensed specifically against millennials and especially to pomp millennials, how to select the Campbell's condensed soup and Use it for meal preparation.

    So you recollect exactly correctly and actually the original crusade is prerogative on that specific target segment with that featured benefit that you mentioned. In terms of the actual promotion, I can't speak the detail. I don't know, Anthony, if you acquire an taste on the 10 for one?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, I mean, historically, their issue on 10 for 10 has been on their RTF , right, more though and that's what they wanted to score away from they have, it's not unusual to contemplate 10 for 10 on some of the condensed side of it.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Steve Strycula from UBS. Your line is open.

    Steve Strycula

    Quick question, on the obscene margin piece what Anthony, what builds the aplomb for the second half margin recovery on the obscene margin rate maybe speak to what inflation assumptions are some of the headwinds that kindly of dissipate? And then a quick follow-on would exist on the international snacking piece, is that about a $1.2 billion revenue entity was summon it $230 million of EBITDA, just some parameters would exist helpful? Thanks.

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, so on the obscene margin point. Obviously, we're down in the first quarter, there is some unusual things in there 60 basis points related to Findlay, 50 basis points on revenue recognition from higher trade on U.S. soup, cost inflation is running in that 4% to 5% compass as they expected. Key drivers being steel, wheat, vegetables, dairy and resins. As they behold ahead to the equipoise of the year, they accomplish await improving trends, right.

    There is a number of reasons for that. First is the accounting change, the revenue recognition is a wrong guy in the first half is a positive in the second half. Second and this is an valuable one, we're going to wrap the acquisition of Snyder's-Lance respite of March. So it turns from a being dilutive mingle repercussion to a positive contributor to organic margin expansion.

    Third, they acquire communicated to their customers pricing actions that we're taking in a number of brands and is - these will Go into effect in the second half acquire some repercussion and certainly acquire more repercussion as they drag into 2020. likewise we'll start to wrap some of the more significant inflation, so that should moderate a slight bit.

    And as I said earlier on the call, their ongoing 3% productivity program, there's a slight back-end loaded this year relative to other. So those are the four or five things that give us aplomb that these trends will improve throughout the year. And on your other question, you're - I consider you're prerogative on the international sales. We're not going to smash down the EBITDA at that level given where they are in these divestiture processes.

    Operator

    Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Your line is open.

    Andrew Lazar

    Just two quick things, one, I consider on the ultimate summon you talked about U.S. soup probably worth about 1 point of a decline for the replete year in total Company sales. I want to score a sense if that was still around what you were thinking?

    And then second, I'm just trying to square your comments from an earlier question around reinvesting maybe a slight less than half of sort of the savings over the epoch of time back into the business. Were there some comments ultimate quarter where you weren't necessarily, you didn't sound that you were expecting a significant reinvestment more of a reallocation from some brands to more disproportionate spending on some others, I wanted to invent sure I just understood how to square those two comments? Thank you.

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, so on the sales share of it. Yes. So U.S. soup performance, they accomplish await soup sales will exist down on a year of probably worth comes to a point to total company sales. The other headwind that we're facing is that the two major private label fresh soup customers poignant to in-sourcing that will acquire a negative repercussion as they Go through the year.

    In terms of the reinvestment, Andrew, I consider if you just behold at their - like, I said, if you behold at their EBIT versus their sales, long-term algorithm is worth about 50 basis points, and that 50 basis point is about $60 million to $70 million of incremental EBIT every year.

    And then if you just work out the math on the program to Go in terms of the annual savings, you need a slight over half of that to Go to that margin expansion. Now that's a slight bit simplistic because obviously you acquire a basket of items that are going up or down in that EBIT bridge. But I consider elevated level, that's about what they would await to contemplate betide going forward.

    Andrew Lazar

    And Anthony around the reinvestment is a lot of it more in the marketing seeing consumer spend side or are there maybe spending that needs to exist done behind capabilities in terms of what you need going forward that maybe we're less cognizant of?

    Anthony DiSilvestro

    Yes, no, I consider that's a apt question, it's just probably All of the above, right, I mean, it's not just limited to one region of investment, right. You're going to augment capabilities, one way or another whether in technology, or in people, or in brands, or in products. So yes, we've talked about this before and things relish digital and e-commerce, they acquire been stepping up their level of investment and we'll continue to do.

    Operator

    And their next question will Come from Jonathan Feeney from Consumer Edge. Your line is open.

    Jonathan Feeney

    Just wanted to require a question on the obscene margin, I guess, a related issue, which is the affordability. When I behold at the 2-year progress, 1-year progress in obscene margin even backing out the acquisition impact, it now compares unfavorably to I consider a lot of your peers directly. And juxtapose that with the conversation about affordability, I guess I just wonder me looking at the data, I wonder how much of the issue is affordability per se and where is that data coming from? Is that the consumer, the retailer that's telling you that the products aren't affordable, particularly I assume that relate largely to the meals industry and soup specifically.

    So I guess where's that data coming from? And are you confident that obscene margins acquire bottomed and are going up from here on an organic basis you're setting aside whatever effect of the planned divestitures might have? Thank you very much.

    Keith McLoughlin

    Yes, I might need you to content a slight bit more about the affordability share of the question, but just kindly of generally relative to obscene margins. Of course as their obscene margins as you stated acquire been compressed here in the ultimate brace of years, primarily driven by the under the performance in Sea Fresh and the major issue we've had with a major customer in soup. I signify that's a not insignificant challenge to their margins. And as we're stating and as you're seeing, we're starting to contemplate getting traction, they are divesting the Sea Fresh side.

    And then in soup, it looks relish we're getting traction both with a key customer and likewise in general. So that gives us confidence, we'll score the cost that work, we'll score the synergies from Snyder's-Lance, score their obscene margins back closer to where Pepperidge Farm's are and that combination gives us aplomb that the obscene margin will expand. Would you had another question around affordability, I just want to invent sure I score the question?

    Operator

    And it actually looks relish the caller has disconnected.

    Keith McLoughlin

    Okay.

    Operator

    So that will conclude their question-and-answer session for today's conference. I'd now relish to turn the summon back over to Keith McLoughlin for any closing remarks.

    Keith McLoughlin

    Okay. Thank you, and thanks, everyone. I just - a brace of concluding remarks, hopefully, you can kindly of score the slight bit of the picture here that there are changes happening at Campbell's. We're in a turnaround and we're executing against the map they laid out on August 30.

    We're pleased that the first quarter results give us the faculty to reaffirm guidance for the replete year. We're getting traction, we're seeing early signs of progress for the turnaround, but there is still a ton of work in front of us. So they are by no means declaring victory, this is the nascence - this is the nascence of the turnaround with the Campbell Soup Company.

    Thank you All for joining us this morning. They behold forward to reporting to you back on Q2 earnings call. acquire a powerful day, and for those in the U.S., a very gay Thanksgiving. Thanks everyone.

    Operator

    Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. And you may All disconnect. Everyone, acquire a wonderful day.

    SeekingAlpha


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