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Image result for ibm

Introduction

In September, I wrote a piece of writing that chronicled the unhurried decline of strange company Machines (IBM). The article focused on the company’s declining revenues and margins and the fallacy this is Watson that has been overhyped and over-marketed. given that the article was posted, things hold gotten worse for the business. Its inventory cost has declined from $a hundred forty five to the existing $123.

as a result, its market valuation has declined from more than $one hundred thirty billion to the current $112 billion. This valuation makes IBM reasonably valued compared to different technology agencies. In IBM, traders are paying 19X trailing earnings and 8X ahead salary. here's greatly reduce than what traders are paying for other faded tech businesses fancy Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Cisco (CSCO) which hold a standard ahead PE ratio of 15. in a similar fashion, IBM has a forward PS ratio of 1.41, which is reduce than the usual of those organizations of four.65.

throughout IBM’s decline, many buyers – including Warren Buffet – hold invested within the enterprise, hoping that it is going to obtain a turnaround. they hold everything been disillusioned as the company’s stock has endured to spy abate lows. short marketers on the other hand were rewarded because the inventory has lost 17% of its cost this 12 months. The brief pastime has increased from 14 million in January to the existing 21 million.

in my view, IBM will proceed to underperform since it lacks a leaven if you want to select the stock greater. This analysis might subsist a celebrate as much as the previous article and will spotlight extra complications that the huge blue is dealing with and the way it may furthermore subsist saved.

Elephant in the Room: RHT

When tremendous groups are in decline, they hold a addiction of making destitute choices certainly in terms of acquisitions. Two examples of this are the election with the aid of Sears Holdings (SHLD) to acquire k-Mart and the election by usual electric (GE) to purchase Baker Hughes (BHGE). lamentably, IBM determined to comply with the footsteps of those corporations.

Two weeks ago, the business introduced that it would spend $34 billion to acquire crimson Hat (RHT). IBM would purchase RHT for $190, which was a 63% premium. In its announcement, IBM’s CEO said that:

The acquisition of red Hat is a online game-changer. It adjustments every tiny thing in regards to the cloud market. BM will develop into the world's #1 hybrid cloud company, providing agencies the most effective open cloud reply in an effort to unencumber the whole cost of the cloud for their organizations

This announcement reminded me of what GE’s Jeff Immelt stated when he introduced the acquisition of Baker Hughes.

BHGE is an business chief positioned to carry in any pecuniary atmosphere and aid their purchasers in using productiveness. This deal capitalizes on the current cycle in oil and gasoline while additionally strengthening their status for the market recovery. As they traipse forward, the brand fresh fullstream providing hurries up their skill to lengthen a digital framework to shoppers while offering world-classification technical innovation and repair execution. They seem to subsist forward to carrying on with a seamless integration for their purchasers.

what's diverse in the two statements is that Immelt turned into correct in regards to the scale of Baker Hughes. however, Virginia Rometty’s remark changed into demonstrably incorrect. First, within the press conference, IBM used the notice cloud forty three times and based on Rometty, the deal will support IBM select an better market share in the cloud industry. youngsters, a glance at red Hat’s revenues suggests a different photograph. Most of its revenues approach from infrastructure-related offerings whereas the next earnings comes from application development and different emerging know-how offerings. In its 10K, it describes the subscription choices as: revenue generated from crimson Hat commercial enterprise Linux and linked technologies such as purple Hat satellite and purple Hat Virtualizations.

source: pink Hat

This factor become furthermore mentioned via Barron’s article that interviewed an analyst from Bernstein who referred to that:

greater than half of red Hat’s profits became generated with the aid of its common on-premise server working-gadget enterprise, which isn’t without retard tied to the cloud and has a slowing boom rate.

additional, while Amazon’s (AMZN) cloud grew through forty six% in 2017, purple Hat’s cloud-related revenues rose via just 14%. at the identical time, the annual revenues of pink Hat are only under $three billion with the net revenue being under $300 million. Worse, IBM is paying 55 instances RHT’s estimated revenue, which is a hefty valuation considering the fact that that many companies in the sector are bought at four.5 instances ahead sales.

therefore, everything this doesn't justify the hefty $34 billion. also, this is not the first time that IBM has overpaid for its cloud functions. In 2013, when it introduced the acquisition of Softlayer, it declared that:

As organizations add public cloud capabilities to their on-premise IT methods, they want business-grade reliability, security and management. To tackle this probability, IBM has developed a portfolio of excessive-price inner most, public and hybrid cloud choices, as well as utility-as-a-carrier company solutions. With SoftLayer, IBM will speed up the build-out of their public cloud infrastructure to supply shoppers the broadest option of cloud choices to pressure enterprise innovation.

Even with the SoftLayer acquisition, IBM has lagged other cloud computing organizations. it is number 5 in the industry in the back of Amazon, Microsoft, Alibaba (BABA), and Google (GOOG). In public cloud, it has a market share of 6%, which is miniscule in comparison to Amazon’s forty six% market share.

in brief, IBM is following the identical vogue adopted by way of generic electric when it acquired Baker Hughes or the disastrous $10.three billion acquisition of Autonomy by means of HP in 2011.

A silver lining in everything this is that there is a possibility that the deal will now not shut. within the press commentary, IBM mentioned that it is going to pay $190 for the enterprise. As of this writing, the business is buying and selling at $172, which is 10% lessen than the proposed $a hundred ninety. In merger arbitrage, here's a sign that an excellent variety of investors don’t reckon the deal will close.

next Elephant within the Room: Debt

The red Hat acquisition is the primary amongst many challenges I did not tackle in my previous article. This deal however presents IBM with a stability sheet problem. To finance the all-cash transaction, IBM will exigency to raise extra debt.

before the deal is closed, IBM has a debt to fairness ratio of 2.372, which is greater than that of the peers mentioned above. Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and Cisco hold a debt to GDP ratio of 0.8867, 1.527, 1.068, and nil.59 respectively. Their traditional is 1.01. hence, this can worsen when the enterprise considerations extra debt to finance the acquisition.

this would now not subsist a problem for an organization this is becoming. unfortunately, as I wrote before, the enterprise’s increase has slowed, revenues are declining, and the huge bets on Watson aren't figuring out. because it has been noted, many Watson customers are pondering of scaling down.

As you support in mind, IBM under Rometty has become a huge fiscal engineering business. To enhance aplomb out there, the business has borrowed closely to finance buybacks. during the past ten years, the enterprise has spent greater than $40 billion in share buybacks. The chart beneath shows the cutting back share counts for the enterprise in the past ten years.

examine this with the boom in lengthy-term debt as shown beneath.

In different phrases, the deal through IBM to acquire red Hat will dramatically increase its debt although RHT’s free money circulate is expanding. this can possible lead to decreased dividends. basically, because of the acquisition, the company has announced that it will halt the buybacks in 2020. for this reason, it's going to halt buybacks to finance a deal I believe will now not assist it in future. pair everything this with the hefty $18 billion pension legal responsibility which is greater than that of similar organizations.

IBM can subsist Saved

listed here, I actually hold neglected other considerations that I raised within the outdated article. These considerations encompass the slowing growth, thinning margins, and the improved competitors from corporations fancy Alibaba, Amazon, and Google.

whereas issues emerge gloomy for IBM, I accept as staunch with that it can furthermore subsist saved. other historic technology agencies hold everything been in the very condition fancy IBM and recovered. before Satya Nadella, Microsoft was death. in a similar way, before Steve Jobs, Apple was dying.

an outstanding vicinity for IBM to dawn is to esteem that it's in problem. After this, it is going to dawn through establishing the explanation for the issue. I reckon that the explanation for IBM’s issues was its lateness in the cloud computing business. This lengthen allowed Amazon and different corporations to enter the trade and purchase customers. In cloud, the churn expense is so low that when a company acquires a consumer, it will possibly manufacture inevitable that the company will no longer defect to its opponents.

subsequent, as with different tech agencies which hold recovered, IBM should still disagree with altering its management. The reality is that Verginia Rometty has now not been a distinguished CEO. beneath her leadership, the company’s stock has declined through more than 30% as proven beneath. at the identical time, she has been paid more than $one hundred twenty million. If Rometty has now not changed the enterprise in 6+ years, what makes the board assured that she will subsist able to flip it around in future?

next, as mentioned above, IBM should still disagree with giving up the acquisition of crimson Hat. while this could attract a hefty divorce bill, it can subsist worth than the catastrophe that awaits if the deal goes on. bethink that 83% of everything M&A offers fail and there is no explanation why this may subsist successful. To subsist clear, IBM will exigency to manufacture acquisitions to compete with Amazon. truly, with the $34 billion, the company can manufacture election investments. as an example, it can spend about $three billion to purchase a company fancy box (field) that counts 61% of Fortune 500 organizations as shoppers.

more desirable, it may possibly consume its ventures arm to rescue money into small startups in an identical approach that Google has executed it with Google Ventures. As shown below, IBM Ventures has now not made any meaningful investments in the fresh previous.

supply: Crunchbase

finally, IBM should still believe divesting its international company options (GBS) segment. here is a aspect that offers consulting, software administration, and global process services. In 2017, the segment generated $sixteen.38 billion in revenues, which turned into lower than $sixteen.7 billion in 2016. The section’s margins are the least among the different segments.

The raw margins are 25%. here is very nearly comparable to different agencies in the sector fancy Accenture (CAN), Wipro (WIT), and Cognizant applied sciences (CTSH) which hold raw margins of 30%, 30%, and 39%. hence, on a sum-of parts foundation, this aspect alone will furthermore subsist cost greater than $30 billion if you befall to evaluate it with its friends.

it is estimated that GBS has more than 120K personnel. therefore, divesting the section will aid the enterprise reduce the headcount and help margins.

ultimate ideas

IBM’s inventory has persevered to decline after the announcement of the pink Hat acquisition. As I even hold explained, the enterprise continues to visage critical headwinds if you want to probably select it lessen. however, I reckon that the directors can serve the company neatly by way of getting out of the RHT deal and finding improved acquisition objectives, changing the CEO, investing in early stage cloud groups via IBM Ventures arm, and diversifying the world business capabilities arm.

Disclosure: i'm/we're long AAPL, box.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (other than from in the hunt for Alpha). I don't hold any company relationship with any business whose inventory is outlined listed here.


IBM looks to Disrupt Scientific research on the Blockchain | killexams.com existent Questions and Pass4sure dumps

The consume instances for distributed ledger expertise are on the upward push, as evidenced by way of IBM’s most synchronous patent software for open scientific analysis on the blockchain.

The tech spacious envisions a device in which a blockchain represents an experiment with individual blocks made out of mission add-ons together with research data, statistics analysis and effects in addition to post-statistics analysis and extra everything with block-linking capabilities to mirror the fame of modifications. The patent, which changed into filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark workplace at 12 months-conclusion 2017, comes on the heels of a separate blockchain patent filed by IBM with an augmented truth and gaming focal point.

The scientific research group has been plagued with a lack of transparency for facts collection tied to the evaluation system, in line with which the blockchain is a probable antidote. Chief among the many issues is a scarcity of “faithful records” and conserving suggestions from unauthorized adjustments, everything of which the blockchain solves with facets fancy immutability and facts protection.

IBM isn’t the simplest entity that is looking to disrupt this system amid what has been described as a “reproducibility disaster in research” and falsified information. however previously, other solutions involving the blockchain hold fallen brief in addressing key elements surrounding confidentiality, accessibility, using algorithms for projects reminiscent of “computerized correction” and extra, everything of which IBM takes on in its patent utility. The enterprise additionally facets to “restrained systems that permit for sharing information about scientific analysis and showing lucid facts collection and evaluation steps,” which interferes with researchers getting credit for the work they’ve performed.

IBM’s reply includes a nimble computing environment for experiments on the blockchain, one which depends closely on but is not restrained to a cloud computing mannequin through which records uploaded to public databases will furthermore subsist tracked. They relate a blockchain system that is two-pronged, made out of each “the trustworthiness of the blockchain thought with open scientific research.” Their expertise accomplishes this through inserting scientific experiments on the blockchain, together with “records accumulated, evaluation carried out and/or results achieved and in doing so bolsters the “trustworthiness and reproducibility of the facts and outcomes” amid the immutable nature of the blockchain.

IBM describes a “first shroud of analysis information and a 2nd shroud of evaluation data representing a log of an evaluation performed on the analysis data.” The technology isn’t for static information as the records can furthermore subsist analyzed for the “reliability and provenance” of the counsel.

usual, the know-how is designed to speed up the scientific research technique, giving the analysis neighborhood greater outfit to compile, analyze, draw conclusions and manufacture corrections on their work, a manner that furthermore spills into peer reports, replicating experiments and evaluating the relevance of information everything with the improvement of facts protection that's inherent with the blockchain.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

The post IBM looks to Disrupt Scientific analysis on the Blockchain seemed first on CCN.


000-438 Applying Fundamentals of Tivoli business Automation Management 2008

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LendingTree Inc (TREE) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference summon Transcript | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.© The Motley Fool Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

LendingTree Inc  (NASDAQ: TREE)

Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call

Nov. 01, 2018, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:
  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants
  • Prepared Remarks:

    Operator

    Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the LendingTree Incorporated Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, everything participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remarks, they will hold a question-and-answer session, and instructions will subsist given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

    It is now my joy to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Doug Lebda, Chief Executive Officer. gladden traipse ahead.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, operator and favorable morning to everyone joining the summon today. I want to consume my time with you to offer my thoughts on the business, rush through the progress we're making on key initiatives, and provide some context on what we're seeing in the broader market. J.D. will then cover the quarter's financials and their updated guidance.

    Before they jump in, let me provide the usual disclaimer. During today's call, they may debate LendingTree's plans, expectations, outlooks or forecast for future performance. Forward-looking statements are typically preceded by words such as they expect, they believe, they anticipate, or other similar statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and LendingTree's actual results could vary materially from the views expressed today. Many, but not everything of the risks they visage are described in LendingTree's periodic reports filed with the SEC.

    On this call, they will debate a number of non-GAAP measures, and I refer you to today's press release available on their website at investors.lendingtree.com for the comparable GAAP measure, definitions and complete reconciliations of GAAP measures or non-GAAP measures to GAAP. With that, let's pick up into it.

    Overall, I'm pleased to report that LendingTree once again delivered a record quarter in terms of revenue, variable marketing margin and adjusted EBITDA. I am even more pleased with the strategic and operational successes we've had during this quarter. There are a few key areas I'd fancy to focus on today. One, the success of their diversification strategy. Two, what we're seeing in the mortgage market. Three, their track record in M&A. And four, their progress on My LendingTree.

    So first, let's talk about the diversification of their product portfolio. Five years ago they consciously set out to expand into fresh loan categories. Although they always had a variety of loan types through their network, they first rescue existent focused effort on growing their personal loans business. Next with small business loans, then student loans, and credit cards, both organically and through acquisitions. Then followed by deposits, credit services, and most recently insurance. These fresh product offerings hold truly transformed the entire business. And on top of that, they continue to sustain solid growth. Five years ago, if someone told me that the fuse of their revenues would flip flop from roughly 80% mortgage to roughly 80% non-mortgage, and then subsist five times their size, I would hold had a hard time believing it myself. Their diversified product fuse enabled us to weather the storm, various market shifts and credit cycles in individual products. And with each fresh product offering, we're able to deliver increasingly more value to customers, engage with consumers more frequently and in fresh and different ways.

    Now let's talk about what we've diversified away from: mortgage. Clearly, mortgage will always subsist an incredibly critical and meaningful allotment of their business. As I'm sure you're aware, the overall industry is struggling with higher interest rates, rising home prices, low housing inventory and declining volume, but they are working closely with their lenders to ensure that they can navigate this market profitably. Those long-standing relationships are one understanding why their mortgage business continues to carry out so well, continuing -- considering the industry headwinds.

    Even though mortgage revenues are down sequentially, I'd fancy to traipse through some of the reasons why they remain very optimistic on their mortgage business over the intermediate and long-term. Obviously, the pool of borrowers that can profit from refinancing changes with interest rates. And because consumers enter the market at different times, that pool of borrowers that can profit furthermore fluctuates. According to industry estimates, the pool of homeowners who would qualify for and profit from a refinance is that is -- is at its lowest point since 2008 with only an estimated 1.5 million households that drop into that category. However, as they work toward fully understanding the customer journey, we're finding their presence in mortgage as actually driving traffic and revenue to their other loan products. Given rising interest rates, many consumers who initially approach to LendingTree for a mortgage aren't seeing the pecuniary profit of a refinance, and thus are increasingly finding their way to another LendingTree product.

    In fact, since 2016, the likelihood of reengagement has by most measures internally doubled. Just this year the percentage of consumers who initially shopped with LendingTree for a mortgage, and then reengaged with LendingTree on a non-mortgage product in the very quarter is up 53%. They furthermore track the unique behavior of the mortgage customer who filled out a figure and institute multiple matches versus a very different behavior of the borrower who is not able to find a match given their weak credit. And the favorable intelligence is that, cohorts are finding their way to other LendingTree products.

    Additionally, they are making distinguished strides on their fresh mortgage experience. When they first began testing on the fresh platform, they focused only on refinance. In the third quarter, they launched purchase on the fresh mortgage experience. We're releasing fresh features every single day, aimed at helping consumers and simplifying the process. Additionally, they hold a robust pipeline of more than 20 lenders in the queue. And what is especially encouraging is that we're now able to track fresh types of lenders who historically hold not been able to effectively operate on comparison shopping platforms, including spacious banks and fresh mortgage companies. And the tower of the fully digital mortgage companies are furthermore seeing distinguished success on their fresh sustain as well.

    We've increased mortgage traffic to the fresh sustain now at approximately 6%, which costs roughly $1 million of adjusted EBITDA per month because of the dissimilarity in monetization. And as they continue to optimize and enhance the experience, we'll ramp up traffic as they help monetization. Overall, I'm very excited for this game changing sustain and believe this will transform the mortgage sustain for both consumers and lenders on LendingTree.

    Finally, despite the third quarter challenges they faced in mortgage and the seasonality they hope to approach into play in Q4, we're furthermore seeing some signs of life in October that are very encouraging. Considering the consumer assignation and the traction with the fresh mortgage experience, I'm looking forward to their opportunities in mortgage over the next few months, and they will traipse into greater details during their Investor Day in December.

    Moving on to M&A. Since 2016, we've completed eight transactions for a total consideration value of just over $680 million, including potential deserve outs. Five of these acquisitions hold been for less than $40 million. Prior to QuoteWizard, which just closed yesterday, their largest acquisition was CompareCards in November of 2016. This transaction was critical to their diversification strategy. In many ways, QuoteWizard is very similar. It gives us a strong presence in an critical and big category, and it was evaluated using the very approach they applied to each opportunity. They select scrupulous strategic and disciplined approach to transactions, and they are always looking for revenue synergies and ways to strengthen both the platform and the consumer offering. I'm incredibly arrogant of the team and what we've been able to accomplish in this area.

    Next I'd fancy to touch on the progress we're seeing with My LendingTree. They now hold over 9 million users, and the contribution from this product continues to climb, growing 68% year-over-year. They continue to help their alert functionality, and their feedback from consumers continues to improve. They are enrolling fresh customers from opt-ins across the LendingTree platform hold ramped up app installs to over 8,000 a week, and hold a robust pipeline of syndication deals very similar to their deal with H&R Block. Overall, I am thrilled with their progress on LendingTree -- My LendingTree.

    And now I'd fancy to turn the summon over to J.D. for more details on their pecuniary progress.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thanks Doug, and thanks to everyone for joining this morning.

    With Doug having given his thoughts, I'd fancy to provide further color on their pecuniary results and some additional context on their guidance for the leavings of the year.

    As Doug said, their third quarter results demonstrate many of the very themes they discussed in the second quarter. The macro pressure facing mortgage and more specifically the margin pressure felt at their lender partners remains persistent. But despite the sustained pressure in mortgage, the overall business continues to accomplish incredibly well as their non-mortgage categories scale. Margins expanded significantly, and they once again grew variable marketing margin and adjusted EBITDA by more than 30%.

    Total revenue for the quarter of $197.1 million was up 15% year-over-year. While a 25% decline in mortgage revenue weighed down overall revenue growth, their collective non-mortgage revenue grew 45% to $141.8 million, and now accounts for 72% of total revenues. And importantly, more than 80% of total variable marketing dollars.

    Several non-mortgage verticals produced standout performance in the third quarter. First, their personal loans business generated $38.6 million of revenue, up 52% year-over-year. While this is a category that is certainly benefiting from growth in the quit market, the fundamentals of the business continue to help as they espy increasing demand among both the newer entrant non-bank lenders and traditional banks. Although they hold seen reports of inevitable lenders citing credit concerns and moderating their growth expectations, the aggregate demand among their lender network is as strong as ever.

    Second, you may recall that after a challenging second quarter they indicated that they saw some signs that their credit card business was stabilizing. Well, we're ecstatic to report the revenue and the contribution from cards rebounded nicely, growing 8% year-on-year, and an impressive 10% sequentially to $42.7 million. Their efforts to diversify their issuer basis and aligned with those partners during the first half of the year are providing for a more stable and predictable revenue stream, and we're starting to introduce more innovative ad units beyond traditional cost per approval arrangements.

    Third, their Other category continues to grow in both revenue and contribution. In fact, Q3 was the first quarter in which Other, the aggregate of those businesses aside from mortgage card and personal loans was larger in both revenue and contribution than any of those big businesses individually. Other, in total grew 84% year-on-year.

    As Doug pointed out, their diversification has been facilitated through both organic efforts and acquisitions. Most recently, they are ecstatic to report the acquisition of Student Loan Hero, and we're pleased to report that the early results from their now scaled student business were very strong in Q3. The traditional in-school student lending business is very seasonal, and Q3 is critical. They are confident that the acquisition of Student Loan Hero helped their already strong SimpleTuition business executed in Q3. And everything indications are that Student Loan Hero should profit materially from being allotment of the LendingTree platform.

    Small business, deposits, and credit services continue to subsist stand-outs among their non-mortgage category. And while these are areas where they hold made acquisitions, they were in two of these three categories prior. Most of their acquisitions hold been small, as Doug pointed out earlier, but they've helped us to scale and in turn become more critical to their partners. From there they execute a playbook. They traipse deeper with existing lenders and partners, expand the network, and unlock incremental traffic sources.

    Finally, let's debate mortgage. Revenue of $55.3 million was down 25% compared to an exceptional third quarter terminal year. It should not subsist a surprise that the abate was entirely driven by softness in refinance activity where industry originations continue their decline. In this difficult environment, we're focused on maintaining sound relationships with their lenders, many of whom are struggling. We're focused on lender economics and they are consciously optimizing their marketing efforts to deliver elevated attribute traffic for their lenders, at times to the detriment of increasing volume. While the current environment is certainly a challenging one, they are encouraged that the strength in their other products are enabling us to weather this term while staying focused on improving their mortgage offering and continuing to deliver results for shareholders.

    Now let's traipse on to margins, which are the legend once again this quarter. As we've been aphorism consistently, they rush the business to optimize for variable marketing margin dollars, and grow adjusted EBITDA. In the third quarter, they delivered $76.8 million of VMD, up 30% year-over-year. Even including the expensing of a series of offline advertising test rush in the quarter, their Variable Marketing Margin as a result -- as a percent of revenue improved to 39%, the highest such measure since the first quarter of 2015. While they are managing to the percentage, you can esteem that their efforts to drive more traffic from organic or near organic sources are dawn to really materialize, and they are clearly benefiting from the continued expansion of their product offerings.

    Most importantly for shareholders, adjusted EBITDA grew 31% to $45.3 million. After a few quarters of accelerated headcount growth to scale the business, they are returning to demonstrating operating leverage in the portion of the cost structure beneath variable marketing expense. From a GAAP perspective, net income from continuing operations came in at $28.4 million or $2.05 per diluted share. And adjusted net income per share, which excludes inevitable items expensed under GAAP was $1.92, up 64% year-over-year. With that context in hand, let me provide some color around their revised guidance for the leavings of the year.

    With QuoteWizard just closed yesterday, we're layering some upside onto their adjust -- pre-existing outlook to account for the two months of repercussion the deal will hold on their reported financials. With that, they are increasing their full-year revenue guidance to $765 million to $775 million. This reflects softness in the mortgage business, coupled with seasonality, offset by an estimated contribution from the fresh insurance vertical. VMD is now expected in the sweep of $283 million to $288 million, up from $275 million to $285 million. While mortgage continues to present challenges on the top line revenue, they remain confident in their skill to generate VMD at levels consistent with what we've promised everything year. And adjusted EBITDA is now expected to subsist $152 million to $155 million for the year, an increase from $148 million to $152 million, and now representing year-over-year growth of 32% to 35%.

    Having just closed the acquisition yesterday, we're not in a position to provide a distinguished deal of context on insurance today, but they spy forward to doing that and updating you on -- updating you everything on their outlook for 2019 at their Investor Day in fresh York on December 4th.

    With that, I'll hand it back to Doug.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And with that, operator, let's open it up to questions.

    Questions and Answers:

    Operator

    Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Their first question comes from note Mahaney of RBC. Your line is now open.

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you. Two questions, please. One, could you talk about the credit card segment, spy fancy that recovered a tiny bit in Q2, but talk -- I'm sorry, in Q3, but talk about that going forward the sustainability of that recovery that you saw? And in terms of the Q4 guidance, could you just whisper how much of that guidance increase is simply due to the acquisition of QuoteWizard or it -- is the organic -- is there an organic reduction in revenue benign of offset by that increase? Just quantify the QuoteWizard contribution. Thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Sure, Mark. It's J.D., I'll start with credit card. As you recall, terminal quarter, they talked about -- they talked about some signs of stabilization, and they in fact broke it down by month. And they indicated that May was really the difficult month, and that they saw some signs of stabilization in June, and as they began the third quarter. Simply rescue that played out.

    One of the things they talked about was, they were getting closer with their issuer partners. We're ecstatic to report that not only hold they gotten closer with many of them and seen expanding wallet share there, but we're actually -- we've actually grown the issuer network in the third quarter as well. And then the economics hold just improved. We've done a better job managing the marketing mix. support in mind there are two ongoing transformations since the CompareCards acquisition. One is the diversification of issuers, and the other is layering on different marketing channels into their card mix, and so we're seeing existent profit from both, it's driven by both.

    We talk about the sequential growth, the contribution in the quarter, just the sequential contribution, improvement was in excess of 30%. So, card really did deliver for the bottom line in the third quarter, and we're excited about that business traipse forward. Now, that's against the backdrop by the way, where -- they talked about this whole fuse between reward cards and poise transfer. It is not in the broader environment for card, we've not seen in the channel the poise transfer cards become prominent again. So we're executing in a more or less challenging environment for card, and the growth that we're delivering -- the sequential growth that they are delivering is a function of execution, not the external environment. We've not yet seen the issuers approach back with poise transfer cards. So that's the card business. And they are encouraged that -- if they can execute in that environment, at some point those poise transfer cards are going to approach back, they pick up paid more for those, they are more valuable for the issuers, and so we're just going to continue the playbook of expanding the network, improving the marketing mix, and being there when that market recovers. But if they can deliver growth in this environment, it's a pretty favorable indication for 2019. So that's card.

    Your second question was with respect to, how much of their contribution. They talked terminal -- when they announced the acquisition, they got asked the question about seasonality in insurance. It does not hold unique seasonality. But fancy their business, November and December are always months that we're more or less conservative with projections. So we're getting two months of QuoteWizard, we've layered on, I believe arrogate upside effectively to their full-year plan. They modestly adjusted for mortgage downward on revenue-only not on VMD and EBITDA, just to subsist clear, just fancy terminal quarter, they can deliver the bottom line, but they did adjust the revenue guide for mortgage modestly. And the understanding for that, as you spy at the aggregate year, spy at the fourth quarter, it is the most significant decline in refi, it's expected to subsist down 38%. So in that environment they thought it was arrogate to select the revenue from mortgage-only down just modestly.

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Okay. Thank you, J.D.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Nat Schindler of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Yes, hi guys. Thank you. Can you support me out on the mortgage business. It means -- the gap between you and the industry looks fancy its narrowed in this quarter. Was that conscious on your time in that you decided that it wasn't worth as much to fight in refi if it wasn't going to carry out as well, so you shifted marketing dollars mid-quarter or is there something more fundamental going on?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. So it's a distinguished question. And everything they carry out is conscious, and we've talked before about the flywheel and this ultimately boils down to what they summon CPL and RPL, Revenue Per Lead and Cost Per Lead. And they just -- in the mortgage environment they hold where lenders are -- where there's not enough refinance volume as they're switching over to purchase, they adjust their marketing spend to subsist in tune with whatever those revenue per leads are. In a purchase customer, if you remember, monetize about half of a refinance customer, so you drive more purchase volume from organic sources, SEO, and just people knowing about LendingTree, TV et cetera, and so that's really the switch over that we're seeing. So I wouldn't select any warning with it, because we're basically just maximizing their VMD every single day. And as I said in October, we're seeing unit revenue improve, which is giving us a lot more aplomb going into Q4. We're furthermore seeing -- importantly the Cost Per Lead is coming down as, they always say, there's two sides to this equation as mortgage companies increasingly focus on their most profitable channels, they're going to subsist doing more business with LendingTree and less direct marketing on research and other things, so that helps out their marketing expense.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Great. And furthermore just a quick follow-up. Can you fracture out the various growth rates between purchase and refi as you done in the past? Is that possible?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    It's possible, but I don't know that we've done that. For J.D., carry out they --

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    No, we're not. Now we're not breaking that down. We've talked about their revenue relative to the industry, but the actual refi activity.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    But the decline in business. The revenue -- the top line decline in mortgage is a 100% refi driven and offset by some growth in purchase.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    As we've -- now, I guess one of things we've talked already, the purchase business is just -- it's a harder business, they pick up paid less for it because of conversion rates as we've talked about in the past. right now we're in an environment where that refi activity is de minimis. And so we're having to execute in the lower margin product effectively. And now, just fancy they talked about at the quit of Q2 in card, we're internally seeing some signs, as Doug pointed out, particularly on the cost side in mortgage, they are dawn to subsist encouraging, but that's against a backdrop where we're expecting a 38% decline in broader refi activity in Q4 coupled with Q1 being a tough comparison for mortgage. As you remember, they were able to drive RPLs double digits in Q1, that was the terminal quarter where they had RPL expansion. So we're seeing favorable signs internally in mortgage, but only internally. The cost equation is getting better and that's great. But we're going into a tough -- we're in a tough fourth quarter for refi, and they carry out hold one difficult comparison ahead of us in Q1 of next year. But importantly, those initial signs that the fuse between RPL and CPL is improving are there.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And then the only other thing I'd add, increasingly over time we're going to subsist looking at the total platform revenue. The individual products are important. But as I said earlier, we're seeing a lot of crossover from mortgage where people traditionally may click on a mortgage ads and they approach in and they whisper there's no benefit, they pop over to a personal loan, et cetera. And then the other thing I would add is that the fresh mortgage sustain completely changes the game on conversion rates as they help that monetization. And just one encouraging sign they are seeing, lenders locking loans at about a four times higher clip on the fresh mortgage sustain than the current mortgage experience, and the net promoter scores are very, very elevated on that. So as they work to sort of automate the mind of the loan officer on the site and they pick up the monetization equal, then that's going to really change the game in the mortgage business and hopefully give us a fresh leg of growth.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from John Campbell of Stephens. Your line is now open.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hey guys, favorable morning.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Good morning.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Hey, John.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hi. Doug, you mentioned flipping of a mortgage to about 20% of rev, clearly you guys hold the addition of QuoteWizard, that's going to I guess pushed mortgage fuse shift a tiny bit lower. But just looking at the forecast, if they stuck with that, if they just benign of went with that 20% mix, I'm thinking you might hold to espy mortgage down again next year. I know you guys mentioned the tough comp in 1Q of '19, and I'm sure you guys will talk about this more at Analyst Day, but am I thinking about the phasing of that mortgage revenue right? And is it pretty difficult to grow mortgage revenue next year?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    No. They are definitely planning on growing mortgage next year, and the percentage fuse just changes based on the individual growth rates. Some of the other businesses are growing faster, but mortgage they absolutely hope to grow significantly next year.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay, that's distinguished to hear. And then on the broadcast spent, can you talk just benign of broadly how that looked year-over-year. And if you guys maybe intend on stepping on -- accelerated a tiny bit more as you pick up into next year?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah, I'll hit it at a elevated level. And I'll let J.D. comment as well. Their broadcast spent, we've been testing, they hold been running decent amount of TV, we're furthermore running ads now increasingly on their non-mortgage products, particularly credit card, including some ads on the CompareCards brand, which are either running or they're in-process. And so year-over-year marketing spend offline is down because of the mortgage environment, you just don't want to market into lower revenue per lead if you can't carry out it profitably, but yes, they hold a -- we'll talk more about in December. They hold a significant offline spend anticipated for next year, and they hope to subsist able to carry out that very profitably.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah, John, I'll let add is, interestingly, I mean, clearly offline spend is down in 2018. It's down in allotment because very intentionally, as Doug points out, in mortgage specifically the RPLs didn't necessarily justify that TV spend. But it's furthermore down because we've been going through an evaluation of how they should subsist spending those dollars. We've got a fresh logo that you might hold noticed, they -- as Doug pointed out, are going to advertise not just broad LendingTree but specific products. And in Q3, It was actually up meaningfully relative to Q2, because they were testing, and that's what we're referencing. We're testing different ad units in regional markets. So in Q3 it was actually up, but in a testing format. They will roll it out more specifically at Investor Day what their intention is, but it should subsist up meaningfully.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And the only other thing I'd add is well on the marketing flywheel effect. They hold built over the terminal pair of years a significant SEO business, now tracking to roughly 20% of their revenue, and that's from almost zero a few years ago.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    That's distinguished color. Thanks guys.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thanks, John.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Hi. Yeah. Just following up on the advertising discussion. Online advertising, I guess it continues to actually grow faster than your revenue this year. Does that become harder to leverage in 2019 as you stop -- as you start to comp some of the lower -- really I guess, the lower expenses or the lower spend you made in broadcast TV? I guess, how should they believe how you're optimizing for your online advertising spend?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So the online advertising spend is optimized in minute if you will. So it's -- in existent time we're constantly looking at the supply and demand equation and marketing up to the terminal profitable dollar anywhere they can find it. So you're looking at the demand from your lenders, looking at the availability of inventory, making sure you can carry out it cost effectively, and you optimizing online stuff in existent time.

    The offline spend, this year we've done a lot of analytics and data tracking. It does manufacture money over the term of, let's say, six months, but you sort of traipse negative and then you traipse positive for many amount of ad spend, and they can draw those curves out fairly precisely, and it gives us a lot of aplomb to subsist able to market into next year. Particularly, as you're getting increasing monetization from My LendingTree and people are buying multiple products, that does nothing but help your lifetime value and gives even more juice to traipse market against.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    And then on the digital mortgage, can you give us an update just how consumers' throughput is doing? And as they traipse through a purchase environment, how much outreach is going to subsist -- asked to subsist done on your allotment to educate lenders on how to manage leads and better drive on -- I guess on a product that's harder to transform converter that has a longer sales cycle?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. So on mortgage -- could you iterate your first question, Jed?

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    How's the (inaudible) throughput are not digital mortgages? (Multiple Speakers)

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Okay, yeah. So -- got it. Yeah. So the digital mortgage sustain -- so first off, LendingTree in the fresh model takes a consumer from inquiry, which is filling out the form, believe about fancy a search query, shows you the results and then LendingTree helps you manufacture a -- helps you manufacture a selection. Once you select a lender, you either deal with that lender "manually" even though manual today is very, very automated or there are some lenders better mortgage is a favorable example, who hold a non-human touch, fully digitized sustain once you fill out the actual application and then actually lock online. So the advent of the digital mortgage experience, whether it's the Rocket Mortgage of Quicken Loans, the things that loanDepot and many others are doing, and that technology is becoming more and more available. But it's really sort of a click over to a fully digital application, believe of it fancy the personal loans product. It reduces a lot of friction, and we're helping lenders pick up increasingly automated.

    To your second point, the notion of touch points particularly on purchase, believe of a -- and you've heard me talk about the mind of the loan officer. The logged in sustain of LendingTree needs to overtime emulate what a loan officer would talk to you about, what are your goals, let's espy what products they have, how long are you going to stay in that house, et cetera, et cetera. With purchase, you layer on the fact you exigency to support a realtor in the loop, and the time lag between the time a customer comes in and the time they ultimately close, it could sometimes subsist as long as six months. During that period, you exigency to incubate them, and they carry out that mostly through technology. They were -- they had to carry out this when they own LendingTree loan, so we're bringing those that muscle tone back so that they know how to interact with customers, but most of it they are not doing over the phone, most of it's coming through text, email and then the online experience, plus alerts telling you that rates are changing, et cetera, et cetera. So as that incubation process gets better and more automated, they believe -- they actually believe that purchase will subsist easier in the fresh mortgage sustain than refi, because that similar -- because basically we'll subsist running the very incubation process across everything of their lenders, and we'll subsist doing that ones as opposed each of their lenders doing at five times.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is now open.

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    Yeah, thanks guys. Two quick questions. One is, how is the home equity business doing? And secondly, outside of mortgage, could you rank your sort of products from best visibility to maybe least visibility?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So let me comment on home equity. The home equity business is doing fine, but I would say, it has not reached the ramming speed of several years ago, and I'll talk about why that is, but that's starting to change. Before 2008 you had lenders, mostly banks, doing home equity loans and keeping them on their poise sheets and they did them in a highly automated way with drive-by appraisals and most of it done online. Very, very elevated conversion rates just fancy they espy in personal loans. The banks hold not yet brought that process back, and there is not really a liquid secondary market for home equity fancy there used to subsist pre-crisis. So with that, the home equity business is growing more slowly. But as technology automation happens and we've got some exciting things on the docket for next year, then they pick up the RPL up, and then they can market into that.

    The other thing I would whisper about home equity, you furthermore pick up a lot of business where people approach in for a home equity loan then they can pick up a complete refinance on their home. So you furthermore pickup some refinance business through home equity. But overall, I would say, we're waiting for and helping the automation home equity to happen, so that they can then market into it.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah, Mike, it's J.D. everything I would whisper is, we've traditionally called out home equity, but it wasn't about calling out home equity, it was taking that non-mortgage category, and away from those individual businesses fancy card NPL that are spacious enough that they exigency to identify the absolute dollar number -- the dollar amount, they obviously for competitive reasons they don't want to give individual business scale, but they carry out want to give you and investors a sense for what's driving the broad -- increasingly broad non-mortgage category. And so they always highlight those that hold contributed most, and that's why we're in this quarter -- home equity just wasn't among the top three that they pointed out grew in excess of 100%. The business is fine, but the percentage growth rates are not as overwhelming partially because a year ago that business was probably inflated by lenders who were buying home equity leads to transform them into a refi product.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And the only other thing I'd add on product visibility. It's benign of bewitching is they got ready -- as we're getting ready for a fresh TV ad campaign, obviously, they carry out a lot of research. Consumers still believe of LendingTree as primarily a mortgage business, as a mortgage comparison shopping service, and they are going to change that next year with their fresh ad campaign, and I believe it's everything upside. If people are thinking about us for a mortgage and it's not a significant allotment of their business, once they realize oh, wow! LendingTree does everything of that too. They pick up much more enthusiasm about the brand and they can divulge that legend very easily through advertising.

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    It will subsist favorable to espy that at the Investor Day. Thanks.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Michael Tarkan of Compass Point. Your line is now open.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Thanks for taking my question. Just a technical one here. I saw on the VMM calc on the back page, you had 3.6 million cost of advertising resold to third-parties. Can you just provide a tiny color on that? And if that flew through to revenue in some figure or another.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. No, absolutely. So, they -- we've talked in the past -- over the terminal year about business development partnerships and so -- and the media side, they own a unprejudiced -- favorable amount of inventory with CNN and MSN that they consume for their own properties, and periodically they resolve to resell that inventory. And so, rather than -- so they classify that differently from accounting perspective as cost of revenue rather than traditional classification for their own business. So we're just making -- drawing the distinction. So that when they sell it to a third-party, and it's not a LendingTree sale, but sold to another publisher.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Is that the -- Sorry, traipse ahead.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And hold you -- and conceptually if you believe about it, basically, we've done a partnership with a partner, and instead of running LendingTree appearance -- LendingTree ads or units are rate tables constantly, you attain a point of where are with the consumer and then they shift that inventory of to other ad buyers through everything the ad networks in an highly automated fashion. So it's -- and over time as their other products -- as that inventory can subsist better spent on LendingTree products, they will simply carry out that.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Is that activity that they should hope to continue or is this sort of a one-time situation or just sort of temporary? How carry out they believe about the sustainability of that?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So I would believe about it in terms of just revenue, because if that they weren't reselling that inventory, we'd subsist running on LendingTree ad and it would subsist in LendingTree revenue, so it will fluctuate up and down depending on those deals. But I would just -- it's effectively taking revenue from one LendingTree product and sticking it in another one. So I wouldn't believe of it is fancy a huge growth engine of the business. It's more of just a supplement or a substitution for other LendingTree product revenue.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Okay, great. And then question on sort of pricing versus volume. In the past you've talked, I think, directionally about how mortgage you had, pricing power, and then you're sort of flat now, is that the road being a tiny bit on the pricing side? And then very question on personal loans, are you still able to select pricing up on your lender base?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. Let me select mortgage, and I'll give J.D. personal. And so, pricing power, if you believe about it, it really comes from lenders conversion rate. So they rescue in effectively a bid or what they're willing to pay for a given customer introduction or a lead. And we've -- and that's where the pricing power comes from. And in October we've actually seen pricing traipse up with some of their significant lenders, because conversion rates are better, they've worked through some of the -- the switchover costs from refinance to purchase, and they're able to transform better. And because of that they up their bids, because of that they can then market into it. So we're actually seeing pricing strength in Q4 a tiny bit.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And by the way the other nice thing about that, that tends to stick as you traipse through another cycle. So if you believe -- rescue yourself in the mind of a lender, you're cutting every unprofitable marketing channel back. And your LendingTree channel, which is generally sustainable and very profitable for lenders, and they can toggle the volume up and down, that tends to subsist the terminal channel they turn off. And then not only does that support their revenue per lead, but on the cost per lead side, as I mentioned, as lenders tow out of direct advertising, that improves their economics online as well.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Youssef Squali of SunTrust. Your line is now open.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Hi, thank you very much for taking the question. Maybe you can just speak to the -- your guidance or particularly what's the implied VMM growth relative to revenue growth looks like, maybe at the midpoint, that's about $79 million as to VMM for Q4. Maybe you can just support us believe through that and furthermore the contribution of QuoteWizard to VMM if you can support share that. Thanks.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Sure. We've seen an ongoing -- they obviously hold reached a recent peak here in the third quarter with respect to VMM percentage at 39% as they pointed out. QuoteWizard operates at a very similar margin profile to LendingTree business, it's one of the things that attracted us to it. We'll pick up two months of it in the quarter. Their -- as I pointed out earlier, they did -- the only number aside from QuoteWizard, the only adjustment made was for mortgage revenue, not for VMD in that guide and not for EBITDA. So we'll continue to espy strong VMD and EBITDA. There shouldn't subsist a huge differential in terms of that growth rate in Q4, and QuoteWizard's contribution is similar with respect to percentage.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    I believe on a percentage basis, at the midpoint I'd assume some deterioration on the margin side. Is that just seasonal or what's going on there?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    There's always a tiny bit of seasonal in there, yes, every quarter, that has nothing to carry out with QuoteWizard.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Got it.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    And we're operating off of it. If you want to talk about, it's sequential, we're coming off of a 39%, a peak number there.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Okay. And then just still on the cost side. Can you may subsist shed some more light on the cost of revenue jump in the third quarter? And how they should believe about it going forward?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    It's what they just discussed on the advertising side that Doug just went into detail on, that's the cost of revenue increase.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Got it. Okay. everything right. Thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thank you very much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Stephen Sheldon of William Blair. Your line is now open.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Yeah. Hi, favorable morning. So you've gotten a lot of questions on mortgage, but just given the degree of the decline this quarter, I just wanted to inquire of if anything has changed in your view within the competitive environment that has had any repercussion there?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    No, I don't believe it -- I don't believe it has. They -- obviously we're in a -- the same, I would summon it very competitive environment with the other aggregators. They continue -- they believe they continue to select share from -- on the lender side, they continue to espy distinguished growth there. And so, I hold not seen -- they hold not seen any significant competitive pressure. There's always innovation in the business. But the favorable intelligence there is, a tough mortgage market benefits LendingTree, I would say, disproportionately than others, because they still hold the skill to traipse out in market because of their deep lender network. And then as I said, once they hold a fresh mortgage sustain up and running, that's a game changer with respect to capacity. So for example, their lenders will espy roughly -- we'll espy many fewer leads coming in the front door, but they will subsist much more highly qualified, which means they will open up the floodgates, increase demand, and then we'll subsist able to market into that, and that's why we're putting so much effort on that fresh experience.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Got it. That's helpful. And then I know you will provide more at the Investor Day, but just at a elevated smooth and more qualitatively, how are you thinking about adjusted EBITDA margins heading into 2019, benign of excluding the repercussion from QuoteWizard. Would you hope some tow back next year given the boost you've gotten this year from layer -- lower variable marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue, which could traipse up next year, and a potentially more favorable demand environment, or what the leverage from headcount additions this year and marketing efficiencies, maybe let adjusted EBITDA margins still trend up some next year. Thanks.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. So Stephen, it's a favorable question. I believe we're certainly not -- they will definitely pick up some operating leverage, which will subsist great. As they pointed out, they hope mortgage to grow. They but this is not -- when you spy at their margins being in excess of 20%, they may traipse up modestly, but that's not a deliberate strategy. You shouldn't, they pick up inquire of the question everything the time, what's the natural margin in the business. I don't believe that what you're seeing this year is necessarily something that you should pencil out as an improvement into next year. We're still very much in market share gain mode. And so we're going to traipse after dollars, as we've talked about, that may not necessarily translate into -- we're going to operate the business in the very EBITDA margin zip code that they hold for some time. So, we'll pick up some operating leverage share, but they will subsist in growth mode and their margins will subsist what their traditional margins hold been. allotment of this is that, we've obviously made marketing decisions in the light of the macro environment in mortgage. And so that's -- that is resulting in a year in which maybe the top line growth is not as strong, but the margin expansion is there. They spy forward to getting back to an environment where we're going to espy top line growth.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And by the way, that is -- just to add on to that. That is a -- you'll espy -- if you spy at LendingTree over the years, you will espy some variation in margin percentages as the macro environment changes, because you only -- because you market up to your terminal profitable dollar, and -- however the VMM dollars and EBITDA dollars support climbing through that, so that's -- those are the numbers that I tend to spy at, because individual percentage margins can vary based on channel fuse and individual demand and individual products.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Eric Wasserstrom of UBS. Your line is now open.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Thanks. Hi, how are you. Just one more question on mortgage, which is similar to the question I asked terminal quarter, which is, just about the relative debt of this transition for the lender basis versus prior cycles, and I believe your response terminal quarter was that, it is -- it's a deeper and therefore maybe longer lasting, and I just wanted to espy if anything about that perspective has changed?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah, I don't -- the longer lasting -- I'm not sure I would say, this is definitely "deeper" given the statistic I rescue about consumer benefit. If you approach in for a refinance, and you're -- you can rescue money either in a lower payment or you guys can always -- most the time you could rescue my lower payments stretch out your term, probably not the best consumer idea, but if you don't hold a pecuniary benefit, obviously there's -- doesn't manufacture sense to refinance and those numbers hold been way down.

    The favorable intelligence though in mortgage, and I've seen this play out over 20 years, it's not the absolute value of interest rates that drive refinance and purchase volume, it's more the -- refinance volume, it's the rate of change. So you can hold low interest rates. And when the tenure knocks down a tiny bit, you pick up a flood of refinance volume, because consumers can rescue money from the faded -- from there, now elevated -- "high rates". So even historically low rates, you can still pick up favorable refinance volume as those rates bump up and down, and you just adjust your marketing mix. I've said before, the mortgage business functions very much fancy the hotel business in travel, lenders will fill up capacity, they will -- if they've got excess capacity inside of their shops, they want more volume, if they can carry out it profitably, then they support their bids down. But as they help their conversion rates in their technology, those bids traipse up as they're doing in October. And then as I said, they market into it.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    So just in terms of the ending of shake out (ph), what would subsist your assessment?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    The ending, I impress time frame or --?

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Yeah. fancy the -- the baseball referenced to fancy which innings?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Good question. I hold given their predicting interest rates. And so I believe I'm going to maintain that. I hold absolutely no clue. everything I know is that the playbook for us changes from one interest rate cycle to another, and they can -- they flip the switch very strongly. But if you've got to read on where rates are going, gladden let me know, because it -- further warning always helps.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Eric, the only thing I add to that -- sorry, some of the fresh experiences we're going through should change who on the lender side, benefits and can operate on the network. And thus, they don't hold -- you don't hold to summon the bottom of the cycle for their traditional lender client, they should profit from that network expansion before that occurs.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Right, got it. (Multiple Speakers) question which was then -- what is the 10X driving your expectation about next year, and it sounds fancy it's more the transitions that you rescue in place, it's not so much an expectation about a bottoming of the broader cycle. Is that correct?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    That is correct.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Great. Thanks very much.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    We typically -- they typically set their mortgage project based on what the NBA looks fancy and they exigency that to set the numbers, but the other VMM can grow through both cycles as long as they continue to manufacture conversion rate improvements. And then to J.D.'s point that he just said to about fresh types of lenders and broadened base. As they switch over the mortgage experience, it levels the competitive playing domain on the network side, and that's basically what you espy is that, these less automated lenders can actually compete against the Quickens and the loanDepots et cetera who hold highly automated factory has been doing this for 20 years. And then that helps to help their conversion rates, which really improves aggregate conversion rates, because it's very similar to the long tail sequel that you saw with search engines, and the more you can boost up the lenders who are in sort of that long tail, you then help your economics overall.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Got it. Great. Thanks very much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Hi, thanks for taking the question. Question on My LendingTree, and the growth there slowed down on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and the comp was tougher, but the annualized revenue per My LendingTree account declined significantly sequentially. What's behind that? Is there some seasonality there, or is that the promotions are not as attractive?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Oh, no. I think, I mean, their growth rate declined from, I think, fancy 100% to fancy 70% sequentially, and I believe it's simply more of a factor of your -- we're marketing less, so therefore you've got less traffic flowing through the system and a lot of their track -- a lot of the My LendingTree signups are coming through, you know, sign ups from the core LendingTree platform, and so that growth rate is -- we're incredibly ecstatic with it. And then as the monetization improves, you can continue to carry out marketing. And as I said, we've got a really, really robust pipeline of syndication deals and hope to hear more from that in the coming weeks and months. But, no, I'm very, very encouraged about the progress we've made with My LendingTree and I wouldn't -- I wouldn't sweat the growth rate difference.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. And Kunal, the only thing I'd add to that is, just select a spy at -- the thing that we're encouraged by is the app downloads, and if you spy at their presence in the app store that's improving, the downloads are improving dramatically, the attribute overall of the people opting in. What they want this to ultimately subsist is not just a basis of members, but furthermore people engaging in the app. And so, from a attribute perspective, they believe it improved dramatically in the quarter.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Great, thanks. And a quick follow-up on the guide. I know you've discussed the revenue guide previously, but by my math and my math maybe off, I'm getting fancy a mid-single digit pro forma year-over-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter. Is that the trough that they should expect?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    From a growth rate perspective, yeah, they don't -- they certainly carry out not. That is -- that is up against a difficult comparison from the fourth quarter a year ago with a very robust mortgage business. They certainly are not operating a -- that type of growth business leeway in aggregate. So in that respect, in terms of revenue growth, yes. It is a unique comparison, both the third and fourth quarter are tough comparisons when you reckon the change in the revenue basis for the mortgage business.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you so much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Rob Wildhack of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open.

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Hi guys. J.D., from your commentary earlier it sounded fancy they could infer that variable marketing dollars in mortgage were up year-over-year. Is that correct?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Variable marketing dollars year-over-year, no. We've seen -- I'm not sure which commentary you're referring to, I apologize. Which statement you're referring to?

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    I believe I'd hold to traipse back and check, but they can carry out that offline. Maybe more broadly I wanted to inquire of about the sale of ad inventory. carry out you reckon that to subsist fancy a "lever" that you hold one flexing marketing spend. And if you do, how far down the list of options is a determination fancy this?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. On the ad selling, I would, again, that is a sort of a substitute/complement, not really a lever. Basically you carry out a syndication deal with, let's say, a CNN, where we're going to rescue LendingTree rate tables, widgets, app downloads, opportunities, et cetera, et cetera on a site fancy CNN. You rescue the LendingTree applicable units there until the terminal profitable dollar and then whenever you can, and then whenever it's not profitable, it's smooth to sell that excess inventory out to third parties. So I wouldn't espy it as a lever. And quite frankly it's not something that I necessarily really focus on, because over time as LendingTree monetization improves, those ad units will subsist absorbed by LendingTree.

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Got it. Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And, Rob, to reply -- to try to reply your first question just because they always want to carry out that. No, the dollars from mortgage and aggregate were certainly down. The percentage is flat quarter -- from Q3 of terminal year.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Your line is now open.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hi, favorable morning. Could you talk about how snappily you can on board these acquisitions? Are they quickly generating traffic and revenue from -- coming onto your platform, how -- or are they still on a stand-alone basis?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Hamed, distinguished question, I really esteem that, and it's something they probably used to focus on. They are able to, for the most part, forecast what synergies were going to pick up before they even carry out the deal, because they can espy what either changing the brand designation is going to carry out or, for example, with -- they bought one SEO business and those guys are now running SEO across the whole company. So we're seeing synergies befall very, very fast, and I got it traipse hats off to their team here who really, really digs in everywhere from HR to Finance to Operations, and they fancy to summon it the entrepreneur without the headaches. Every time they bring one of these guys in, they whisper listen, we'll handle your capital, we're going to handle everything those things that it takes to rush a business from a corporate standpoint, and everything you got to carry out is traipse grow your business, and then they rescue people. They hold distinguished integration teams and knock on wood, everything of these acquisitions hold been very, very accretive for us. You can't bat a thousand in the M&A world, but I'm just thrilled with where their team has done it, and the synergies, if anything I believe they underestimate them in some of their earlier deals.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay. And then as far as just the -- J.D. made comment about peak margin on the VMM. Is it becoming dilutive being in so many different products that you hold to advertise each of them individually, and when carry out you start to carry out it in more of a platform setting?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So, yeah, you try to carry out both. So, for example, you might rush and ad that features somebody buying a home or somebody getting a mortgage or somebody getting a credit card, but typically you tried to furthermore at the quit talk about everything of the loan types, so you can bring in traffic that way. But no, you -- the more products you have, I fancy to summon it the more marketable events you have, and the more marketable events you have, the more you can optimize where you status those events across the web or across TV. So the more products, the better, and they carry out hold some ads that rush where they talk about everything and you can hope to espy some more of that, but you just basically carry out whatever works, and you try to fuse in individual product spots to divulge a specific story, but then furthermore tried to say, hey, but we're furthermore here for everything.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    And, Hamed, I'd actually whisper it's benign of the opposite. everything of these non-mortgage businesses are benefiting from draft traffic. And so, Doug made reference to it before, in terms of somebody coming in for mortgage and going somewhere else, and fancy every Internet company we're getting smarter in terms of tracking this and using data science to carry out that. Right. So what's very evident to us, is that, everything of these other businesses are benefiting from draft traffic from not just mortgage but from each other, and that's the profit of an acquired company coming onto the platform is that they pick up that traffic. And so the aggregate brand is contributing to them in a pretty material way, and that equally pick up smarter about this over time, and obviously deals with attribution models and we've got to pencil it everything out. But it's really exciting actually when you espy what profit they can pick up from being allotment of the platform.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    So is your cost going up, is that why you're using the word dilutive in your commentary or peak?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    No, no, no. When they whisper peak, what we're referring to is the fact that the VMM of 39% was the highest since what first quarter of '15. That's everything what we're referring to. Now, as you know, we've managed the business for dollars. And so that VMM percentage may sweep from the low 30s to the elevated 30s. I'm simply referring to the fact that at 39% that was a elevated number relative to recent history.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay, thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    But there was -- I didn't -- yeah, I'm not aphorism it's dilutive at all.

    Operator

    Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would fancy to turn the summon back over to Doug Lebda, the CEO, for any closing remarks.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you operator, and thank you everything for joining today and thank you for the really, really thoughtful questions. I'd just fancy to near with one comment. Around LendingTree, they always talk about trying to manufacture sure they everything believe and act fancy owners, and they don't exigency to just rescue ourselves in your shoes, everybody here is an owner in LendingTree equity, and they believe about it in the very terms that you do. And one other things that I believe about as an investor, that I'm just thrilled with as I spy over the years is the resilience of their business model. For those of you hold been around a long time, you bethink when they sold their mortgage company, they thought -- people thought, oh my gosh, this guy will drop in mortgage, we've had various mortgage rate changes over the years. You bethink a few years ago the personal loan business was going to completely evaporate and traipse away. They had pressures in card or worries about card. And through each and every one of those, LendingTree has been able to grow through them all. Each time it gives us a lot more aplomb in their business and in their skill to execute that they can not only survive but furthermore thrive through different macro environments. Their lender network is strong, their team is executing incredibly well, and I'm very confident and optimistic about their future, and I spy forward to sharing their long sweep project and lots of fresh information at Investor Day and a tiny over a month.

    Thank you everything very much, and we'll talk to you soon.

    Operator

    Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone hold a distinguished day.

    Duration: 66 minutes

    Call participants:

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    More TREE analysis

    Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

    This article is a transcript of this conference summon produced for The Motley Fool. While they strive for their preposterous Best, there may subsist errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with everything their articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your consume of this content, and they strongly inspirit you to carry out your own research, including listening to the summon yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. gladden espy their Terms and Conditions for additional details, including their Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

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    Why automation will not select away jobs | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Image: Shutterstock

    Image: Shutterstock

    Here's an age-old paradox that comes up with every leap of technological advancement: Will automation select away jobs from people?

    Let’s start with a question that is easier to answer, because it’s in retrospect. Has automation taken away jobs from people?

    You would hope the reply to subsist a simple yes or no, based on data, but there’s the catch. It furthermore depends on how they spy at it.

    For centuries, many, probably most of the technological innovations hold been created with an intention to supplant human labor. Starting with the ancient farming equipment, right up to assembly lines, computing machines, ATMs, and recent technologies; the intention has been the same. The population eligible for economic activities, or “work”, has increased manifold during this time. Does that impress jobs hold reduced? Definitely not. On the contrary, employment rates hold consistently increased in each one of these areas.

    Let’s select assembly lines, for example. Assembly lines were designed to simply reduce the manual labor, but accomplished a lot more. That did not mean, however, that the number of people working in factories reduced. Granted, the number of people required to pick up a car out of production might hold reduced, and in most cases people were taken off the jobs they did in respective manufacturing departments.  However, what furthermore happened is that more cars were manufactured, there was more money available to set up factories, and over time, labor-intensive jobs were upgraded or redesigned. Hence, more jobs were created.

    If they talk of banking, ATMs hold a similar story. These machines were designed to ‘replace tellers completely’. In effect, while ATMs became omnipresent and inevitable for everything banking, the number of tellers (or teller work profiles) employed by banks increased manifold as well. Banks figured they could open up more branches, and in these branches the benign of work tellers did was more than just counting cash and dispensing money. They were furthermore focusing on customers and customers' specific requirements, in turn, structure more business for the bank. The virtuous cycle of skill upgrade and higher output sustained despite everything further advancements in technology.

    What’s fresh this time?The claim that recent technological advancements, especially automation, ersatz intelligence, robotics, internet of things (IoT) are a threat to jobs is an dispute that's turned on its head.

    When you believe of the benign of jobs automation replaced in the past, it was mostly in the manual labour or blue collar category. terminal pair of decades' advancements in workflow software, content management, productivity software, business rules management, including the recent robotic process automation – in short, most information technologies – have, in fact, aided progress in orchestration and determination making as well. This means that not only the data entry folks, but supervision and management jobs hold furthermore been replaced by technologies.

    This trend – of replacing human determination making and management skills – is further speeding up with advancements in analytics and AI, including further automation in the areas of business process management.

    Does that impress that middle managers and learning workers would lose jobs? The reply is, no.

    Granted, the threat is real. However, they will hold to spy at the underlying pattern here. And, that pattern is - “automation primarily replaces the repetitive, mundane and routine parts of a learning worker’s job, freeing up the individual’s bandwidth to accomplish the existent tasks expected of the learning worker, furthermore creating further cash flood for the business to grow and as a whole the scope of work expected of people”.

    The flip side of this dispute is that those with a particular manual skill are still losing their jobs. Obviously, there’s an immediate pressure on people to upgrade their skills or change working habits to accomplish existent learning work.  However, that is what hold precisely been the expectations of business as well as workers, since forever. People pick up bored doing the very things over and over again, and without an external impetus to help their working environment, the productivity as well as motivation goes down over time.

    So, in essence, automation is not actually taking away jobs. It is only nudging people to accomplish more fulfilling and progressive tasks. It is allowing businesses to create a more balanced working environment, where people can apply their sustain and determination making skills. Automation, in this sense, is a major boost to learning worker empowerment.

    Net, Net;In every business, work profiles are separated into several strata. People are still locked into mundane, routine activities, which are mostly tiring and draining. Enterprises want to traipse forward and grow, and lower productivity and demotivated workforce are huge bottlenecks. Automation frees up quiescent human talent, equips enterprises to accomplish more, creates more elevated value jobs and empowers learning workers.

    The author is Senior Vice President Technology, Newgen Software

    Thank you for your comment, they value your view and the time you took to write to us!



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