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Image result for ibm

Introduction

In September, I wrote a piece of writing that chronicled the tedious decline of alien company Machines (IBM). The article focused on the company’s declining revenues and margins and the fallacy this is Watson that has been overhyped and over-marketed. given that the article was posted, things acquire gotten worse for the business. Its inventory expense has declined from $a hundred forty five to the existing $123.

as a result, its market valuation has declined from more than $one hundred thirty billion to the current $112 billion. This valuation makes IBM reasonably valued compared to different technology agencies. In IBM, traders are paying 19X trailing earnings and 8X ahead salary. here's greatly reduce than what traders are paying for other used tech businesses like Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Cisco (CSCO) which acquire a standard ahead PE ratio of 15. in a similar fashion, IBM has a forward PS ratio of 1.41, which is reduce than the usual of those organizations of four.65.

throughout IBM’s decline, many buyers – including Warren Buffet – acquire invested within the enterprise, hoping that it is going to obtain a turnaround. they acquire totality been disillusioned as the company’s stock has endured to perceive lessen lows. short marketers on the other hand were rewarded because the inventory has lost 17% of its expense this 12 months. The brief pastime has increased from 14 million in January to the existing 21 million.

in my view, IBM will proceed to underperform since it lacks a catalyst if you want to acquire the stock greater. This analysis might exist a celebrate as much as the previous article and will spotlight extra complications that the huge blue is dealing with and the way it may likewise exist saved.

Elephant in the Room: RHT

When tremendous groups are in decline, they acquire a addiction of making impecunious choices certainly in terms of acquisitions. Two examples of this are the altenative with the aid of Sears Holdings (SHLD) to acquire k-Mart and the altenative by usual electric (GE) to purchase Baker Hughes (BHGE). lamentably, IBM determined to comply with the footsteps of those corporations.

Two weeks ago, the business introduced that it would spend $34 billion to acquire crimson Hat (RHT). IBM would purchase RHT for $190, which was a 63% premium. In its announcement, IBM’s CEO said that:

The acquisition of red Hat is a online game-changer. It adjustments every itsy-bitsy thing in regards to the cloud market. BM will develop into the world's #1 hybrid cloud company, providing agencies the most efficacious open cloud reply in an pains to unencumber the whole expense of the cloud for their organizations

This announcement reminded me of what GE’s Jeff Immelt stated when he introduced the acquisition of Baker Hughes.

BHGE is an business chief positioned to carry in any pecuniary atmosphere and aid their purchasers in using productiveness. This deal capitalizes on the current cycle in oil and gasoline while additionally strengthening their status for the market recovery. As they lag forward, the brand novel fullstream providing hurries up their faculty to lengthen a digital framework to shoppers while offering world-classification technical innovation and repair execution. They appear to exist forward to carrying on with a seamless integration for their purchasers.

what's diverse in the two statements is that Immelt turned into correct in regards to the scale of Baker Hughes. however, Virginia Rometty’s remark changed into demonstrably incorrect. First, within the press conference, IBM used the notice cloud forty three times and based on Rometty, the deal will support IBM acquire an better market share in the cloud industry. youngsters, a glance at red Hat’s revenues suggests a different photograph. Most of its revenues advance from infrastructure-related offerings whereas the next earnings comes from application development and different emerging know-how offerings. In its 10K, it describes the subscription choices as: revenue generated from crimson Hat commercial enterprise Linux and linked technologies such as purple Hat satellite and purple Hat Virtualizations.

source: pink Hat

This factor become likewise mentioned via Barron’s article that interviewed an analyst from Bernstein who referred to that:

greater than half of red Hat’s profits became generated with the aid of its common on-premise server working-gadget enterprise, which isn’t without retard tied to the cloud and has a slowing boom rate.

additional, while Amazon’s (AMZN) cloud grew through forty six% in 2017, purple Hat’s cloud-related revenues rose via just 14%. at the identical time, the annual revenues of pink Hat are only under $three billion with the net revenue being under $300 million. Worse, IBM is paying 55 instances RHT’s estimated revenue, which is a hefty valuation considering the fact that that many companies in the sector are bought at four.5 instances ahead sales.

therefore, totality this doesn't warrant the hefty $34 billion. also, this is not the first time that IBM has overpaid for its cloud functions. In 2013, when it introduced the acquisition of Softlayer, it declared that:

As organizations add public cloud capabilities to their on-premise IT methods, they want business-grade reliability, security and management. To tackle this probability, IBM has developed a portfolio of excessive-price inner most, public and hybrid cloud choices, as well as utility-as-a-carrier company solutions. With SoftLayer, IBM will speed up the build-out of their public cloud infrastructure to supply shoppers the broadest option of cloud choices to pressure enterprise innovation.

Even with the SoftLayer acquisition, IBM has lagged other cloud computing organizations. it is number 5 in the industry in the back of Amazon, Microsoft, Alibaba (BABA), and Google (GOOG). In public cloud, it has a market share of 6%, which is miniscule in comparison to Amazon’s forty six% market share.

in brief, IBM is following the identical vogue adopted by way of generic electric when it acquired Baker Hughes or the disastrous $10.three billion acquisition of Autonomy by means of HP in 2011.

A silver lining in totality this is that there is a possibility that the deal will now not shut. within the press commentary, IBM mentioned that it is going to pay $190 for the enterprise. As of this writing, the business is buying and selling at $172, which is 10% lessen than the proposed $a hundred ninety. In merger arbitrage, here's a sign that an excellent variety of investors don’t consider the deal will close.

next Elephant within the Room: Debt

The red Hat acquisition is the primary amongst many challenges I did not tackle in my previous article. This deal however presents IBM with a stability sheet problem. To finance the all-cash transaction, IBM will requisite to raise extra debt.

before the deal is closed, IBM has a debt to fairness ratio of 2.372, which is greater than that of the peers mentioned above. Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and Cisco acquire a debt to GDP ratio of 0.8867, 1.527, 1.068, and nil.59 respectively. Their common is 1.01. hence, this can worsen when the enterprise considerations extra debt to finance the acquisition.

this would now not exist a problem for an organization this is becoming. unfortunately, as I wrote before, the enterprise’s increase has slowed, revenues are declining, and the huge bets on Watson aren't figuring out. because it has been noted, many Watson customers are pondering of scaling down.

As you support in mind, IBM under Rometty has become a huge fiscal engineering business. To enhance self-confidence out there, the business has borrowed closely to finance buybacks. during the past ten years, the enterprise has spent greater than $40 billion in share buybacks. The chart beneath shows the cutting back share counts for the enterprise in the past ten years.

examine this with the boom in lengthy-term debt as shown beneath.

In different phrases, the deal through IBM to acquire red Hat will dramatically increase its debt although RHT’s free money circulate is expanding. this can workable lead to decreased dividends. basically, because of the acquisition, the company has announced that it will halt the buybacks in 2020. for this reason, it's going to halt buybacks to finance a deal I believe will now not assist it in future. couple totality this with the hefty $18 billion pension legal responsibility which is greater than that of similar organizations.

IBM can exist Saved

listed here, I actually acquire neglected other considerations that I raised within the outdated article. These considerations encompass the slowing growth, thinning margins, and the improved competitors from corporations like Alibaba, Amazon, and Google.

whereas issues show dismal for IBM, I accept as lawful with that it can likewise exist saved. other historic technology agencies acquire totality been in the identical condition like IBM and recovered. before Satya Nadella, Microsoft was death. in a similar way, before Steve Jobs, Apple was dying.

an outstanding vicinity for IBM to mount is to value that it's in problem. After this, it is going to mount through establishing the explanation for the issue. I consider that the explanation for IBM’s issues was its lateness in the cloud computing business. This lengthen allowed Amazon and different corporations to enter the trade and purchase customers. In cloud, the churn expense is so low that when a company acquires a consumer, it will possibly get certain that the company will no longer defect to its opponents.

subsequent, as with different tech agencies which acquire recovered, IBM should still coincide with altering its management. The reality is that Verginia Rometty has now not been a much CEO. beneath her leadership, the company’s stock has declined through more than 30% as proven beneath. at the identical time, she has been paid more than $one hundred twenty million. If Rometty has now not changed the enterprise in 6+ years, what makes the board assured that she will exist able to flip it around in future?

next, as mentioned above, IBM should still coincide with giving up the acquisition of crimson Hat. while this could attract a hefty divorce bill, it can exist worth than the catastrophe that awaits if the deal goes on. recollect that 83% of totality M&A offers fail and there is no explanation why this may exist successful. To exist clear, IBM will requisite to get acquisitions to compete with Amazon. truly, with the $34 billion, the company can get altenative investments. as an example, it can spend about $three billion to purchase a company like box (field) that counts 61% of Fortune 500 organizations as shoppers.

more desirable, it may possibly Use its ventures arm to attach money into small startups in an identical approach that Google has executed it with Google Ventures. As shown below, IBM Ventures has now not made any meaningful investments in the fresh previous.

supply: Crunchbase

finally, IBM should still believe divesting its international company options (GBS) segment. here is a aspect that offers consulting, software administration, and global process services. In 2017, the segment generated $sixteen.38 billion in revenues, which turned into lower than $sixteen.7 billion in 2016. The section’s margins are the least among the different segments.

The grievous margins are 25%. here is very nearly comparable to different agencies in the sector like Accenture (CAN), Wipro (WIT), and Cognizant applied sciences (CTSH) which acquire grievous margins of 30%, 30%, and 39%. hence, on a sum-of parts foundation, this aspect solitary will likewise exist expense greater than $30 billion if you chance to evaluate it with its friends.

it is estimated that GBS has more than 120K personnel. therefore, divesting the section will aid the enterprise reduce the headcount and ameliorate margins.

ultimate ideas

IBM’s inventory has persevered to decline after the announcement of the pink Hat acquisition. As I even acquire explained, the enterprise continues to countenance significant headwinds if you want to probably acquire it lessen. however, I consider that the directors can serve the company neatly by way of getting out of the RHT deal and finding improved acquisition objectives, changing the CEO, investing in early stage cloud groups via IBM Ventures arm, and diversifying the world business capabilities arm.

Disclosure: i'm/we're long AAPL, box.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (other than from in the hunt for Alpha). I don't acquire any company relationship with any business whose inventory is outlined listed here.


IBM looks to Disrupt Scientific research on the Blockchain | killexams.com existent Questions and Pass4sure dumps

The Use instances for distributed ledger expertise are on the upward push, as evidenced by way of IBM’s most concomitant patent software for open scientific analysis on the blockchain.

The tech expansive envisions a device in which a blockchain represents an experiment with individual blocks made out of mission add-ons together with research data, statistics analysis and effects in addition to post-statistics analysis and extra totality with block-linking capabilities to mirror the fame of modifications. The patent, which changed into filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark workplace at 12 months-conclusion 2017, comes on the heels of a separate blockchain patent filed by IBM with an augmented truth and gaming focal point.

The scientific research group has been plagued with a want of transparency for facts collection tied to the evaluation system, in line with which the blockchain is a probable antidote. Chief among the many issues is a scarcity of “faithful records” and conserving suggestions from unauthorized adjustments, totality of which the blockchain solves with facets like immutability and facts protection.

IBM isn’t the simplest entity that is looking to disrupt this system amid what has been described as a “reproducibility disaster in research” and falsified information. however previously, other solutions involving the blockchain acquire fallen brief in addressing key elements surrounding confidentiality, accessibility, using algorithms for projects reminiscent of “computerized correction” and extra, totality of which IBM takes on in its patent utility. The enterprise additionally facets to “restrained systems that permit for sharing information about scientific analysis and showing limpid facts collection and evaluation steps,” which interferes with researchers getting credit for the work they’ve performed.

IBM’s reply includes a brisk computing environment for experiments on the blockchain, one which depends closely on but is not restrained to a cloud computing mannequin through which records uploaded to public databases will likewise exist tracked. They narrate a blockchain system that is two-pronged, made out of each “the trustworthiness of the blockchain thought with open scientific research.” Their expertise accomplishes this through inserting scientific experiments on the blockchain, together with “records accumulated, evaluation carried out and/or results achieved and in doing so bolsters the “trustworthiness and reproducibility of the facts and outcomes” amid the immutable nature of the blockchain.

IBM describes a “first obscure of analysis information and a 2nd obscure of evaluation data representing a log of an evaluation performed on the analysis data.” The technology isn’t for static information as the records can likewise exist analyzed for the “reliability and provenance” of the counsel.

usual, the know-how is designed to speed up the scientific research technique, giving the analysis neighborhood greater gear to compile, analyze, draw conclusions and get corrections on their work, a manner that likewise spills into peer reports, replicating experiments and evaluating the relevance of information totality with the improvement of facts protection that's inherent with the blockchain.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

The post IBM looks to Disrupt Scientific analysis on the Blockchain seemed first on CCN.


000-438 Applying Fundamentals of Tivoli business Automation Management 2008

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LendingTree Inc (TREE) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference summon Transcript | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.© The Motley Fool Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

LendingTree Inc  (NASDAQ: TREE)

Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call

Nov. 01, 2018, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:
  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants
  • Prepared Remarks:

    Operator

    Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the LendingTree Incorporated Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, totality participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remarks, they will acquire a question-and-answer session, and instructions will exist given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

    It is now my delight to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Doug Lebda, Chief Executive Officer. please lag ahead.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, operator and sterling morning to everyone joining the summon today. I want to Use my time with you to tender my thoughts on the business, Run through the progress we're making on key initiatives, and provide some context on what we're seeing in the broader market. J.D. will then cover the quarter's financials and their updated guidance.

    Before they jump in, let me provide the usual disclaimer. During today's call, they may dispute LendingTree's plans, expectations, outlooks or forecast for future performance. Forward-looking statements are typically preceded by words such as they expect, they believe, they anticipate, or other similar statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and LendingTree's actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Many, but not totality of the risks they countenance are described in LendingTree's periodic reports filed with the SEC.

    On this call, they will dispute a number of non-GAAP measures, and I advert you to today's press release available on their website at investors.lendingtree.com for the comparable GAAP measure, definitions and replete reconciliations of GAAP measures or non-GAAP measures to GAAP. With that, let's procure into it.

    Overall, I'm pleased to report that LendingTree once again delivered a record quarter in terms of revenue, variable marketing margin and adjusted EBITDA. I am even more pleased with the strategic and operational successes we've had during this quarter. There are a few key areas I'd like to focus on today. One, the success of their diversification strategy. Two, what we're seeing in the mortgage market. Three, their track record in M&A. And four, their progress on My LendingTree.

    So first, let's talk about the diversification of their product portfolio. Five years ago they consciously set out to expand into novel loan categories. Although they always had a variety of loan types through their network, they first attach existent focused pains on growing their personal loans business. Next with small business loans, then student loans, and credit cards, both organically and through acquisitions. Then followed by deposits, credit services, and most recently insurance. These novel product offerings acquire truly transformed the entire business. And on top of that, they continue to taste solid growth. Five years ago, if someone told me that the blend of their revenues would flip flop from roughly 80% mortgage to roughly 80% non-mortgage, and then exist five times their size, I would acquire had a difficult time believing it myself. Their diversified product blend enabled us to weather the storm, various market shifts and credit cycles in individual products. And with each novel product offering, we're able to deliver increasingly more value to customers, engage with consumers more frequently and in novel and different ways.

    Now let's talk about what we've diversified away from: mortgage. Clearly, mortgage will always exist an incredibly significant and meaningful piece of their business. As I'm sure you're aware, the overall industry is struggling with higher interest rates, rising home prices, low housing inventory and declining volume, but they are working closely with their lenders to ensure that they can navigate this market profitably. Those long-standing relationships are one understanding why their mortgage business continues to carry out so well, continuing -- considering the industry headwinds.

    Even though mortgage revenues are down sequentially, I'd like to lag through some of the reasons why they remain very optimistic on their mortgage business over the intermediate and long-term. Obviously, the pool of borrowers that can benefit from refinancing changes with interest rates. And because consumers enter the market at different times, that pool of borrowers that can benefit likewise fluctuates. According to industry estimates, the pool of homeowners who would qualify for and benefit from a refinance is that is -- is at its lowest point since 2008 with only an estimated 1.5 million households that tumble into that category. However, as they work toward fully understanding the customer journey, we're finding their presence in mortgage as actually driving traffic and revenue to their other loan products. Given rising interest rates, many consumers who initially advance to LendingTree for a mortgage aren't seeing the pecuniary benefit of a refinance, and thus are increasingly finding their way to another LendingTree product.

    In fact, since 2016, the likelihood of reengagement has by most measures internally doubled. Just this year the percentage of consumers who initially shopped with LendingTree for a mortgage, and then reengaged with LendingTree on a non-mortgage product in the identical quarter is up 53%. They likewise track the unique deportment of the mortgage customer who filled out a profile and found multiple matches versus a very different deportment of the borrower who is not able to find a match given their weak credit. And the sterling news is that, cohorts are finding their way to other LendingTree products.

    Additionally, they are making much strides on their novel mortgage experience. When they first began testing on the novel platform, they focused only on refinance. In the third quarter, they launched purchase on the novel mortgage experience. We're releasing novel features every single day, aimed at helping consumers and simplifying the process. Additionally, they acquire a robust pipeline of more than 20 lenders in the queue. And what is especially encouraging is that we're now able to track novel types of lenders who historically acquire not been able to effectively operate on comparison shopping platforms, including expansive banks and novel mortgage companies. And the mount of the fully digital mortgage companies are likewise seeing much success on their novel taste as well.

    We've increased mortgage traffic to the novel taste now at approximately 6%, which costs roughly $1 million of adjusted EBITDA per month because of the incompatibility in monetization. And as they continue to optimize and enhance the experience, we'll ramp up traffic as they ameliorate monetization. Overall, I'm very excited for this game changing taste and believe this will transform the mortgage taste for both consumers and lenders on LendingTree.

    Finally, despite the third quarter challenges they faced in mortgage and the seasonality they anticipate to advance into play in Q4, we're likewise seeing some signs of life in October that are very encouraging. Considering the consumer rendezvous and the traction with the novel mortgage experience, I'm looking forward to their opportunities in mortgage over the next few months, and they will lag into greater details during their Investor Day in December.

    Moving on to M&A. Since 2016, we've completed eight transactions for a total consideration value of just over $680 million, including potential earn outs. Five of these acquisitions acquire been for less than $40 million. Prior to QuoteWizard, which just closed yesterday, their largest acquisition was CompareCards in November of 2016. This transaction was critical to their diversification strategy. In many ways, QuoteWizard is very similar. It gives us a strong presence in an significant and big category, and it was evaluated using the identical approach they applied to each opportunity. They acquire punctilious strategic and disciplined approach to transactions, and they are always looking for revenue synergies and ways to strengthen both the platform and the consumer offering. I'm incredibly arrogant of the team and what we've been able to accomplish in this area.

    Next I'd like to touch on the progress we're seeing with My LendingTree. They now acquire over 9 million users, and the contribution from this product continues to climb, growing 68% year-over-year. They continue to ameliorate their alert functionality, and their feedback from consumers continues to improve. They are enrolling novel customers from opt-ins across the LendingTree platform acquire ramped up app installs to over 8,000 a week, and acquire a robust pipeline of syndication deals very similar to their deal with H&R Block. Overall, I am thrilled with their progress on LendingTree -- My LendingTree.

    And now I'd like to turn the summon over to J.D. for more details on their pecuniary progress.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thanks Doug, and thanks to everyone for joining this morning.

    With Doug having given his thoughts, I'd like to provide further color on their pecuniary results and some additional context on their guidance for the remainder of the year.

    As Doug said, their third quarter results demonstrate many of the identical themes they discussed in the second quarter. The macro pressure facing mortgage and more specifically the margin pressure felt at their lender partners remains persistent. But despite the sustained pressure in mortgage, the overall business continues to perform incredibly well as their non-mortgage categories scale. Margins expanded significantly, and they once again grew variable marketing margin and adjusted EBITDA by more than 30%.

    Total revenue for the quarter of $197.1 million was up 15% year-over-year. While a 25% decline in mortgage revenue weighed down overall revenue growth, their collective non-mortgage revenue grew 45% to $141.8 million, and now accounts for 72% of total revenues. And importantly, more than 80% of total variable marketing dollars.

    Several non-mortgage verticals produced standout performance in the third quarter. First, their personal loans business generated $38.6 million of revenue, up 52% year-over-year. While this is a category that is certainly benefiting from growth in the cessation market, the fundamentals of the business continue to ameliorate as they perceive increasing claim among both the newer entrant non-bank lenders and traditional banks. Although they acquire seen reports of certain lenders citing credit concerns and moderating their growth expectations, the aggregate claim among their lender network is as strong as ever.

    Second, you may recall that after a challenging second quarter they indicated that they saw some signs that their credit card business was stabilizing. Well, we're satisfied to report the revenue and the contribution from cards rebounded nicely, growing 8% year-on-year, and an impressive 10% sequentially to $42.7 million. Their efforts to diversify their issuer groundwork and aligned with those partners during the first half of the year are providing for a more stable and predictable revenue stream, and we're starting to interpose more innovative ad units beyond traditional cost per approval arrangements.

    Third, their Other category continues to grow in both revenue and contribution. In fact, Q3 was the first quarter in which Other, the aggregate of those businesses aside from mortgage card and personal loans was larger in both revenue and contribution than any of those big businesses individually. Other, in total grew 84% year-on-year.

    As Doug pointed out, their diversification has been facilitated through both organic efforts and acquisitions. Most recently, they are satisfied to report the acquisition of Student Loan Hero, and we're pleased to report that the early results from their now scaled student business were very strong in Q3. The traditional in-school student lending business is very seasonal, and Q3 is critical. They are confident that the acquisition of Student Loan Hero helped their already strong SimpleTuition business executed in Q3. And totality indications are that Student Loan Hero should benefit materially from being piece of the LendingTree platform.

    Small business, deposits, and credit services continue to exist stand-outs among their non-mortgage category. And while these are areas where they acquire made acquisitions, they were in two of these three categories prior. Most of their acquisitions acquire been small, as Doug pointed out earlier, but they've helped us to scale and in turn become more critical to their partners. From there they execute a playbook. They lag deeper with existing lenders and partners, expand the network, and unlock incremental traffic sources.

    Finally, let's dispute mortgage. Revenue of $55.3 million was down 25% compared to an exceptional third quarter terminal year. It should not exist a surprise that the lessen was entirely driven by softness in refinance activity where industry originations continue their decline. In this difficult environment, we're focused on maintaining well relationships with their lenders, many of whom are struggling. We're focused on lender economics and they are consciously optimizing their marketing efforts to deliver tall property traffic for their lenders, at times to the detriment of increasing volume. While the current environment is certainly a challenging one, they are encouraged that the strength in their other products are enabling us to weather this term while staying focused on improving their mortgage offering and continuing to deliver results for shareholders.

    Now let's lag on to margins, which are the yarn once again this quarter. As we've been adage consistently, they Run the business to optimize for variable marketing margin dollars, and grow adjusted EBITDA. In the third quarter, they delivered $76.8 million of VMD, up 30% year-over-year. Even including the expensing of a series of offline advertising test Run in the quarter, their Variable Marketing Margin as a result -- as a percent of revenue improved to 39%, the highest such measure since the first quarter of 2015. While they are managing to the percentage, you can value that their efforts to drive more traffic from organic or near organic sources are mount to really materialize, and they are clearly benefiting from the continued expansion of their product offerings.

    Most importantly for shareholders, adjusted EBITDA grew 31% to $45.3 million. After a few quarters of accelerated headcount growth to scale the business, they are returning to demonstrating operating leverage in the portion of the cost structure beneath variable marketing expense. From a GAAP perspective, net income from continuing operations came in at $28.4 million or $2.05 per diluted share. And adjusted net income per share, which excludes certain items expensed under GAAP was $1.92, up 64% year-over-year. With that context in hand, let me provide some color around their revised guidance for the remainder of the year.

    With QuoteWizard just closed yesterday, we're layering some upside onto their adjust -- pre-existing outlook to account for the two months of repercussion the deal will acquire on their reported financials. With that, they are increasing their full-year revenue guidance to $765 million to $775 million. This reflects softness in the mortgage business, coupled with seasonality, offset by an estimated contribution from the novel insurance vertical. VMD is now expected in the sweep of $283 million to $288 million, up from $275 million to $285 million. While mortgage continues to present challenges on the top line revenue, they remain confident in their faculty to generate VMD at levels consistent with what we've promised totality year. And adjusted EBITDA is now expected to exist $152 million to $155 million for the year, an increase from $148 million to $152 million, and now representing year-over-year growth of 32% to 35%.

    Having just closed the acquisition yesterday, we're not in a position to provide a much deal of context on insurance today, but they perceive forward to doing that and updating you on -- updating you totality on their outlook for 2019 at their Investor Day in novel York on December 4th.

    With that, I'll hand it back to Doug.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And with that, operator, let's open it up to questions.

    Questions and Answers:

    Operator

    Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Their first question comes from trace Mahaney of RBC. Your line is now open.

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you. Two questions, please. One, could you talk about the credit card segment, perceive like that recovered a itsy-bitsy bit in Q2, but talk -- I'm sorry, in Q3, but talk about that going forward the sustainability of that recovery that you saw? And in terms of the Q4 guidance, could you just snort how much of that guidance increase is simply due to the acquisition of QuoteWizard or it -- is the organic -- is there an organic reduction in revenue benevolent of offset by that increase? Just quantify the QuoteWizard contribution. Thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Sure, Mark. It's J.D., I'll start with credit card. As you recall, terminal quarter, they talked about -- they talked about some signs of stabilization, and they in fact broke it down by month. And they indicated that May was really the difficult month, and that they saw some signs of stabilization in June, and as they began the third quarter. Simply attach that played out.

    One of the things they talked about was, they were getting closer with their issuer partners. We're satisfied to report that not only acquire they gotten closer with many of them and seen expanding wallet share there, but we're actually -- we've actually grown the issuer network in the third quarter as well. And then the economics acquire just improved. We've done a better job managing the marketing mix. support in mind there are two ongoing transformations since the CompareCards acquisition. One is the diversification of issuers, and the other is layering on different marketing channels into their card mix, and so we're seeing existent benefit from both, it's driven by both.

    We talk about the sequential growth, the contribution in the quarter, just the sequential contribution, improvement was in excess of 30%. So, card really did deliver for the bottom line in the third quarter, and we're excited about that business lag forward. Now, that's against the backdrop by the way, where -- they talked about this whole blend between reward cards and poise transfer. It is not in the broader environment for card, we've not seen in the channel the poise transfer cards become prominent again. So we're executing in a sort of challenging environment for card, and the growth that we're delivering -- the sequential growth that they are delivering is a function of execution, not the external environment. We've not yet seen the issuers advance back with poise transfer cards. So that's the card business. And they are encouraged that -- if they can execute in that environment, at some point those poise transfer cards are going to advance back, they procure paid more for those, they are more valuable for the issuers, and so we're just going to continue the playbook of expanding the network, improving the marketing mix, and being there when that market recovers. But if they can deliver growth in this environment, it's a pretty sterling indication for 2019. So that's card.

    Your second question was with admiration to, how much of their contribution. They talked terminal -- when they announced the acquisition, they got asked the question about seasonality in insurance. It does not acquire unique seasonality. But like their business, November and December are always months that we're sort of conservative with projections. So we're getting two months of QuoteWizard, we've layered on, I assume preempt upside effectively to their full-year plan. They modestly adjusted for mortgage downward on revenue-only not on VMD and EBITDA, just to exist clear, just like terminal quarter, they can deliver the bottom line, but they did adjust the revenue guide for mortgage modestly. And the understanding for that, as you perceive at the aggregate year, perceive at the fourth quarter, it is the most significant decline in refi, it's expected to exist down 38%. So in that environment they thought it was preempt to acquire the revenue from mortgage-only down just modestly.

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Okay. Thank you, J.D.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Nat Schindler of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Yes, hi guys. Thank you. Can you back me out on the mortgage business. It means -- the gap between you and the industry looks like its narrowed in this quarter. Was that conscious on your time in that you decided that it wasn't worth as much to fight in refi if it wasn't going to carry out as well, so you shifted marketing dollars mid-quarter or is there something more fundamental going on?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. So it's a much question. And everything they carry out is conscious, and we've talked before about the flywheel and this ultimately boils down to what they summon CPL and RPL, Revenue Per Lead and Cost Per Lead. And they just -- in the mortgage environment they acquire where lenders are -- where there's not enough refinance volume as they're switching over to purchase, they adjust their marketing spend to exist in tune with whatever those revenue per leads are. In a purchase customer, if you remember, monetize about half of a refinance customer, so you drive more purchase volume from organic sources, SEO, and just people knowing about LendingTree, TV et cetera, and so that's really the switch over that we're seeing. So I wouldn't acquire any alarm with it, because we're basically just maximizing their VMD every single day. And as I said in October, we're seeing unit revenue improve, which is giving us a lot more self-confidence going into Q4. We're likewise seeing -- importantly the Cost Per Lead is coming down as, they always say, there's two sides to this equation as mortgage companies increasingly focus on their most profitable channels, they're going to exist doing more business with LendingTree and less direct marketing on research and other things, so that helps out their marketing expense.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Great. And likewise just a quick follow-up. Can you shiver out the various growth rates between purchase and refi as you done in the past? Is that possible?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    It's possible, but I don't know that we've done that. For J.D., carry out they --

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    No, we're not. Now we're not breaking that down. We've talked about their revenue relative to the industry, but the actual refi activity.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    But the decline in business. The revenue -- the top line decline in mortgage is a 100% refi driven and offset by some growth in purchase.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    As we've -- now, I guess one of things we've talked already, the purchase business is just -- it's a harder business, they procure paid less for it because of conversion rates as we've talked about in the past. perquisite now we're in an environment where that refi activity is de minimis. And so we're having to execute in the lower margin product effectively. And now, just like they talked about at the cessation of Q2 in card, we're internally seeing some signs, as Doug pointed out, particularly on the cost side in mortgage, they are mount to exist encouraging, but that's against a backdrop where we're expecting a 38% decline in broader refi activity in Q4 coupled with Q1 being a tough comparison for mortgage. As you remember, they were able to drive RPLs double digits in Q1, that was the terminal quarter where they had RPL expansion. So we're seeing sterling signs internally in mortgage, but only internally. The cost equation is getting better and that's great. But we're going into a tough -- we're in a tough fourth quarter for refi, and they carry out acquire one difficult comparison ahead of us in Q1 of next year. But importantly, those initial signs that the blend between RPL and CPL is improving are there.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And then the only other thing I'd add, increasingly over time we're going to exist looking at the total platform revenue. The individual products are important. But as I said earlier, we're seeing a lot of crossover from mortgage where people traditionally may click on a mortgage ads and they advance in and they snort there's no benefit, they pop over to a personal loan, et cetera. And then the other thing I would add is that the novel mortgage taste completely changes the game on conversion rates as they ameliorate that monetization. And just one encouraging sign they are seeing, lenders locking loans at about a four times higher clip on the novel mortgage taste than the current mortgage experience, and the net promoter scores are very, very tall on that. So as they work to sort of automate the mind of the loan officer on the site and they procure the monetization equal, then that's going to really change the game in the mortgage business and hopefully give us a novel leg of growth.

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from John Campbell of Stephens. Your line is now open.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hey guys, sterling morning.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Good morning.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Hey, John.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hi. Doug, you mentioned flipping of a mortgage to about 20% of rev, clearly you guys acquire the addition of QuoteWizard, that's going to I guess pushed mortgage blend shift a itsy-bitsy bit lower. But just looking at the forecast, if they stuck with that, if they just benevolent of went with that 20% mix, I'm thinking you might acquire to perceive mortgage down again next year. I know you guys mentioned the tough comp in 1Q of '19, and I'm sure you guys will talk about this more at Analyst Day, but am I thinking about the phasing of that mortgage revenue right? And is it pretty difficult to grow mortgage revenue next year?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    No. They are definitely planning on growing mortgage next year, and the percentage blend just changes based on the individual growth rates. Some of the other businesses are growing faster, but mortgage they absolutely anticipate to grow significantly next year.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay, that's much to hear. And then on the broadcast spent, can you talk just benevolent of broadly how that looked year-over-year. And if you guys maybe intend on stepping on -- accelerated a itsy-bitsy bit more as you procure into next year?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah, I'll hit it at a tall level. And I'll let J.D. remark as well. Their broadcast spent, we've been testing, they acquire been running decent amount of TV, we're likewise running ads now increasingly on their non-mortgage products, particularly credit card, including some ads on the CompareCards brand, which are either running or they're in-process. And so year-over-year marketing spend offline is down because of the mortgage environment, you just don't want to market into lower revenue per lead if you can't carry out it profitably, but yes, they acquire a -- we'll talk more about in December. They acquire a significant offline spend anticipated for next year, and they anticipate to exist able to carry out that very profitably.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah, John, I'll let add is, interestingly, I mean, clearly offline spend is down in 2018. It's down in piece because very intentionally, as Doug points out, in mortgage specifically the RPLs didn't necessarily warrant that TV spend. But it's likewise down because we've been going through an evaluation of how they should exist spending those dollars. We've got a novel logo that you might acquire noticed, they -- as Doug pointed out, are going to advertise not just broad LendingTree but specific products. And in Q3, It was actually up meaningfully relative to Q2, because they were testing, and that's what we're referencing. We're testing different ad units in regional markets. So in Q3 it was actually up, but in a testing format. They will roll it out more specifically at Investor Day what their intent is, but it should exist up meaningfully.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And the only other thing I'd add is well on the marketing flywheel effect. They acquire built over the terminal couple of years a significant SEO business, now tracking to roughly 20% of their revenue, and that's from almost zero a few years ago.

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    That's much color. Thanks guys.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thanks, John.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Hi. Yeah. Just following up on the advertising discussion. Online advertising, I guess it continues to actually grow faster than your revenue this year. Does that become harder to leverage in 2019 as you stop -- as you start to comp some of the lower -- really I guess, the lower expenses or the lower spend you made in broadcast TV? I guess, how should they assume how you're optimizing for your online advertising spend?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So the online advertising spend is optimized in minute if you will. So it's -- in existent time we're constantly looking at the supply and claim equation and marketing up to the terminal profitable dollar anywhere they can find it. So you're looking at the claim from your lenders, looking at the availability of inventory, making sure you can carry out it cost effectively, and you optimizing online stuff in existent time.

    The offline spend, this year we've done a lot of analytics and data tracking. It does get money over the term of, let's say, six months, but you sort of lag negative and then you lag positive for many amount of ad spend, and they can draw those curves out fairly precisely, and it gives us a lot of self-confidence to exist able to market into next year. Particularly, as you're getting increasing monetization from My LendingTree and people are buying multiple products, that does nothing but ameliorate your lifetime value and gives even more juice to lag market against.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    And then on the digital mortgage, can you give us an update just how consumers' throughput is doing? And as they lag through a purchase environment, how much outreach is going to exist -- asked to exist done on your piece to educate lenders on how to manage leads and better drive on -- I guess on a product that's harder to transform converter that has a longer sales cycle?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. So on mortgage -- could you iterate your first question, Jed?

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    How's the (inaudible) throughput are not digital mortgages? (Multiple Speakers)

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Okay, yeah. So -- got it. Yeah. So the digital mortgage taste -- so first off, LendingTree in the novel model takes a consumer from inquiry, which is filling out the form, assume about like a search query, shows you the results and then LendingTree helps you get a -- helps you get a selection. Once you select a lender, you either deal with that lender "manually" even though manual today is very, very automated or there are some lenders better mortgage is a sterling example, who acquire a non-human touch, fully digitized taste once you fill out the actual application and then actually lock online. So the advent of the digital mortgage experience, whether it's the Rocket Mortgage of Quicken Loans, the things that loanDepot and many others are doing, and that technology is becoming more and more available. But it's really sort of a click over to a fully digital application, assume of it like the personal loans product. It reduces a lot of friction, and we're helping lenders procure increasingly automated.

    To your second point, the notion of touch points particularly on purchase, assume of a -- and you've heard me talk about the mind of the loan officer. The logged in taste of LendingTree needs to overtime emulate what a loan officer would talk to you about, what are your goals, let's perceive what products they have, how long are you going to stay in that house, et cetera, et cetera. With purchase, you layer on the fact you requisite to support a realtor in the loop, and the time lag between the time a customer comes in and the time they ultimately close, it could sometimes exist as long as six months. During that period, you requisite to incubate them, and they carry out that mostly through technology. They were -- they had to carry out this when they own LendingTree loan, so we're bringing those that muscle tone back so that they know how to interact with customers, but most of it they are not doing over the phone, most of it's coming through text, email and then the online experience, plus alerts telling you that rates are changing, et cetera, et cetera. So as that incubation process gets better and more automated, they assume -- they actually assume that purchase will exist easier in the novel mortgage taste than refi, because that similar -- because basically we'll exist running the identical incubation process across totality of their lenders, and we'll exist doing that ones as opposed each of their lenders doing at five times.

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is now open.

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    Yeah, thanks guys. Two quick questions. One is, how is the home equity business doing? And secondly, outside of mortgage, could you rank your sort of products from best visibility to maybe least visibility?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So let me remark on home equity. The home equity business is doing fine, but I would say, it has not reached the ramming speed of several years ago, and I'll talk about why that is, but that's starting to change. Before 2008 you had lenders, mostly banks, doing home equity loans and keeping them on their poise sheets and they did them in a highly automated way with drive-by appraisals and most of it done online. Very, very tall conversion rates just like they perceive in personal loans. The banks acquire not yet brought that process back, and there is not really a liquid secondary market for home equity like there used to exist pre-crisis. So with that, the home equity business is growing more slowly. But as technology automation happens and we've got some exciting things on the docket for next year, then they procure the RPL up, and then they can market into that.

    The other thing I would snort about home equity, you likewise procure a lot of business where people advance in for a home equity loan then they can procure a replete refinance on their home. So you likewise pickup some refinance business through home equity. But overall, I would say, we're waiting for and helping the automation home equity to happen, so that they can then market into it.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah, Mike, it's J.D. totality I would snort is, we've traditionally called out home equity, but it wasn't about calling out home equity, it was taking that non-mortgage category, and away from those individual businesses like card NPL that are expansive enough that they requisite to identify the absolute dollar number -- the dollar amount, they obviously for competitive reasons they don't want to give individual business scale, but they carry out want to give you and investors a sense for what's driving the broad -- increasingly broad non-mortgage category. And so they always highlight those that acquire contributed most, and that's why we're in this quarter -- home equity just wasn't among the top three that they pointed out grew in excess of 100%. The business is fine, but the percentage growth rates are not as overwhelming partially because a year ago that business was probably inflated by lenders who were buying home equity leads to transform them into a refi product.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And the only other thing I'd add on product visibility. It's benevolent of enchanting is they got ready -- as we're getting ready for a novel TV ad campaign, obviously, they carry out a lot of research. Consumers still assume of LendingTree as primarily a mortgage business, as a mortgage comparison shopping service, and they are going to change that next year with their novel ad campaign, and I assume it's totality upside. If people are thinking about us for a mortgage and it's not a significant piece of their business, once they realize oh, wow! LendingTree does totality of that too. They procure much more enthusiasm about the brand and they can command that yarn very easily through advertising.

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    It will exist sterling to perceive that at the Investor Day. Thanks.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Michael Tarkan of Compass Point. Your line is now open.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Thanks for taking my question. Just a technical one here. I saw on the VMM calc on the back page, you had 3.6 million cost of advertising resold to third-parties. Can you just provide a itsy-bitsy color on that? And if that flew through to revenue in some profile or another.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. No, absolutely. So, they -- we've talked in the past -- over the terminal year about business development partnerships and so -- and the media side, they own a just -- sterling amount of inventory with CNN and MSN that they Use for their own properties, and periodically they determine to resell that inventory. And so, rather than -- so they classify that differently from accounting perspective as cost of revenue rather than traditional classification for their own business. So we're just making -- drawing the distinction. So that when they sell it to a third-party, and it's not a LendingTree sale, but sold to another publisher.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Is that the -- Sorry, lag ahead.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And acquire you -- and conceptually if you assume about it, basically, we've done a partnership with a partner, and instead of running LendingTree appearance -- LendingTree ads or units are rate tables constantly, you achieve a point of where are with the consumer and then they shift that inventory of to other ad buyers through totality the ad networks in an highly automated fashion. So it's -- and over time as their other products -- as that inventory can exist better spent on LendingTree products, they will simply carry out that.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Is that activity that they should anticipate to continue or is this sort of a one-time situation or just sort of temporary? How carry out they assume about the sustainability of that?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So I would assume about it in terms of just revenue, because if that they weren't reselling that inventory, we'd exist running on LendingTree ad and it would exist in LendingTree revenue, so it will fluctuate up and down depending on those deals. But I would just -- it's effectively taking revenue from one LendingTree product and sticking it in another one. So I wouldn't assume of it is like a huge growth engine of the business. It's more of just a supplement or a substitution for other LendingTree product revenue.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Okay, great. And then question on sort of pricing versus volume. In the past you've talked, I think, directionally about how mortgage you had, pricing power, and then you're sort of flat now, is that the road being a itsy-bitsy bit on the pricing side? And then identical question on personal loans, are you still able to acquire pricing up on your lender base?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. Let me acquire mortgage, and I'll give J.D. personal. And so, pricing power, if you assume about it, it really comes from lenders conversion rate. So they attach in effectively a bid or what they're willing to pay for a given customer introduction or a lead. And we've -- and that's where the pricing power comes from. And in October we've actually seen pricing lag up with some of their significant lenders, because conversion rates are better, they've worked through some of the -- the switchover costs from refinance to purchase, and they're able to transform better. And because of that they up their bids, because of that they can then market into it. So we're actually seeing pricing strength in Q4 a itsy-bitsy bit.

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And by the way the other nice thing about that, that tends to stick as you lag through another cycle. So if you assume -- attach yourself in the mind of a lender, you're cutting every unprofitable marketing channel back. And your LendingTree channel, which is generally sustainable and very profitable for lenders, and they can toggle the volume up and down, that tends to exist the terminal channel they turn off. And then not only does that back their revenue per lead, but on the cost per lead side, as I mentioned, as lenders haul out of direct advertising, that improves their economics online as well.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Youssef Squali of SunTrust. Your line is now open.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Hi, thank you very much for taking the question. Maybe you can just speak to the -- your guidance or particularly what's the implied VMM growth relative to revenue growth looks like, maybe at the midpoint, that's about $79 million as to VMM for Q4. Maybe you can just back us assume through that and likewise the contribution of QuoteWizard to VMM if you can back share that. Thanks.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Sure. We've seen an ongoing -- they obviously acquire reached a recent peak here in the third quarter with respect to VMM percentage at 39% as they pointed out. QuoteWizard operates at a very similar margin profile to LendingTree business, it's one of the things that attracted us to it. We'll procure two months of it in the quarter. Their -- as I pointed out earlier, they did -- the only number aside from QuoteWizard, the only adjustment made was for mortgage revenue, not for VMD in that guide and not for EBITDA. So we'll continue to perceive strong VMD and EBITDA. There shouldn't exist a huge differential in terms of that growth rate in Q4, and QuoteWizard's contribution is similar with respect to percentage.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    I assume on a percentage basis, at the midpoint I'd assume some deterioration on the margin side. Is that just seasonal or what's going on there?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    There's always a itsy-bitsy bit of seasonal in there, yes, every quarter, that has nothing to carry out with QuoteWizard.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Got it.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    And we're operating off of it. If you want to talk about, it's sequential, we're coming off of a 39%, a peak number there.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Okay. And then just still on the cost side. Can you may exist shed some more light on the cost of revenue jump in the third quarter? And how they should assume about it going forward?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    It's what they just discussed on the advertising side that Doug just went into detail on, that's the cost of revenue increase.

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Got it. Okay. totality right. Thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Thank you very much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Stephen Sheldon of William Blair. Your line is now open.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Yeah. Hi, sterling morning. So you've gotten a lot of questions on mortgage, but just given the degree of the decline this quarter, I just wanted to question if anything has changed in your view within the competitive environment that has had any repercussion there?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    No, I don't assume it -- I don't assume it has. They -- obviously we're in a -- the same, I would summon it identical competitive environment with the other aggregators. They continue -- they believe they continue to acquire share from -- on the lender side, they continue to perceive much growth there. And so, I acquire not seen -- they acquire not seen any significant competitive pressure. There's always innovation in the business. But the sterling news there is, a tough mortgage market benefits LendingTree, I would say, disproportionately than others, because they still acquire the faculty to lag out in market because of their deep lender network. And then as I said, once they acquire a novel mortgage taste up and running, that's a game changer with respect to capacity. So for example, their lenders will perceive roughly -- we'll perceive many fewer leads coming in the front door, but they will exist much more highly qualified, which means they will open up the floodgates, increase demand, and then we'll exist able to market into that, and that's why we're putting so much pains on that novel experience.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Got it. That's helpful. And then I know you will provide more at the Investor Day, but just at a tall even and more qualitatively, how are you thinking about adjusted EBITDA margins heading into 2019, benevolent of excluding the repercussion from QuoteWizard. Would you anticipate some haul back next year given the boost you've gotten this year from layer -- lower variable marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue, which could lag up next year, and a potentially more propitious claim environment, or what the leverage from headcount additions this year and marketing efficiencies, maybe let adjusted EBITDA margins still trend up some next year. Thanks.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. So Stephen, it's a sterling question. I assume we're certainly not -- they will definitely procure some operating leverage, which will exist great. As they pointed out, they anticipate mortgage to grow. They but this is not -- when you perceive at their margins being in excess of 20%, they may lag up modestly, but that's not a deliberate strategy. You shouldn't, they procure question the question totality the time, what's the natural margin in the business. I don't assume that what you're seeing this year is necessarily something that you should pencil out as an improvement into next year. We're still very much in market share gain mode. And so we're going to lag after dollars, as we've talked about, that may not necessarily translate into -- we're going to operate the business in the identical EBITDA margin zip code that they acquire for some time. So, we'll procure some operating leverage share, but they will exist in growth mode and their margins will exist what their traditional margins acquire been. piece of this is that, we've obviously made marketing decisions in the light of the macro environment in mortgage. And so that's -- that is resulting in a year in which maybe the top line growth is not as strong, but the margin expansion is there. They perceive forward to getting back to an environment where we're going to perceive top line growth.

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And by the way, that is -- just to add on to that. That is a -- you'll perceive -- if you perceive at LendingTree over the years, you will perceive some variation in margin percentages as the macro environment changes, because you only -- because you market up to your terminal profitable dollar, and -- however the VMM dollars and EBITDA dollars support climbing through that, so that's -- those are the numbers that I tend to perceive at, because individual percentage margins can vary based on channel blend and individual claim and individual products.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Eric Wasserstrom of UBS. Your line is now open.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Thanks. Hi, how are you. Just one more question on mortgage, which is similar to the question I asked terminal quarter, which is, just about the relative debt of this transition for the lender groundwork versus prior cycles, and I assume your response terminal quarter was that, it is -- it's a deeper and therefore maybe longer lasting, and I just wanted to perceive if anything about that perspective has changed?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah, I don't -- the longer lasting -- I'm not sure I would say, this is definitely "deeper" given the statistic I attach about consumer benefit. If you advance in for a refinance, and you're -- you can save money either in a lower payment or you guys can always -- most the time you could save my lower payments stretch out your term, probably not the best consumer idea, but if you don't acquire a pecuniary benefit, obviously there's -- doesn't get sense to refinance and those numbers acquire been way down.

    The sterling news though in mortgage, and I've seen this play out over 20 years, it's not the absolute value of interest rates that drive refinance and purchase volume, it's more the -- refinance volume, it's the rate of change. So you can acquire low interest rates. And when the tenure knocks down a itsy-bitsy bit, you procure a flood of refinance volume, because consumers can save money from the used -- from there, now tall -- "high rates". So even historically low rates, you can still procure sterling refinance volume as those rates bump up and down, and you just adjust your marketing mix. I've said before, the mortgage business functions very much like the hotel business in travel, lenders will fill up capacity, they will -- if they've got excess capacity inside of their shops, they want more volume, if they can carry out it profitably, then they support their bids down. But as they ameliorate their conversion rates in their technology, those bids lag up as they're doing in October. And then as I said, they market into it.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    So just in terms of the ending of shake out (ph), what would exist your assessment?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    The ending, I exist significant time frame or --?

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Yeah. like the -- the baseball referenced to like which innings?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Good question. I acquire given their predicting interest rates. And so I assume I'm going to maintain that. I acquire absolutely no clue. totality I know is that the playbook for us changes from one interest rate cycle to another, and they can -- they flip the switch very strongly. But if you've got to read on where rates are going, please let me know, because it -- advance warning always helps.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Eric, the only thing I add to that -- sorry, some of the novel experiences we're going through should change who on the lender side, benefits and can operate on the network. And thus, they don't acquire -- you don't acquire to summon the bottom of the cycle for their traditional lender client, they should benefit from that network expansion before that occurs.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Right, got it. (Multiple Speakers) question which was then -- what is the 10X driving your expectation about next year, and it sounds like it's more the transitions that you attach in place, it's not so much an expectation about a bottoming of the broader cycle. Is that correct?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    That is correct.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Great. Thanks very much.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    We typically -- they typically set their mortgage way based on what the NBA looks like and they requisite that to set the numbers, but the other VMM can grow through both cycles as long as they continue to get conversion rate improvements. And then to J.D.'s point that he just said to about novel types of lenders and broadened base. As they switch over the mortgage experience, it levels the competitive playing domain on the network side, and that's basically what you perceive is that, these less automated lenders can actually compete against the Quickens and the loanDepots et cetera who acquire highly automated factory has been doing this for 20 years. And then that helps to ameliorate their conversion rates, which really improves aggregate conversion rates, because it's very similar to the long tail upshot that you saw with search engines, and the more you can boost up the lenders who are in sort of that long tail, you then ameliorate your economics overall.

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Got it. Great. Thanks very much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Hi, thanks for taking the question. Question on My LendingTree, and the growth there slowed down on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and the comp was tougher, but the annualized revenue per My LendingTree account declined significantly sequentially. What's behind that? Is there some seasonality there, or is that the promotions are not as attractive?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Oh, no. I think, I mean, their growth rate declined from, I think, like 100% to like 70% sequentially, and I assume it's simply more of a factor of your -- we're marketing less, so therefore you've got less traffic flowing through the system and a lot of their track -- a lot of the My LendingTree signups are coming through, you know, sign ups from the core LendingTree platform, and so that growth rate is -- we're incredibly satisfied with it. And then as the monetization improves, you can continue to carry out marketing. And as I said, we've got a really, really robust pipeline of syndication deals and anticipate to hear more from that in the coming weeks and months. But, no, I'm very, very encouraged about the progress we've made with My LendingTree and I wouldn't -- I wouldn't sweat the growth rate difference.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. And Kunal, the only thing I'd add to that is, just acquire a perceive at -- the thing that we're encouraged by is the app downloads, and if you perceive at their presence in the app store that's improving, the downloads are improving dramatically, the property overall of the people opting in. What they want this to ultimately exist is not just a groundwork of members, but likewise people engaging in the app. And so, from a property perspective, they assume it improved dramatically in the quarter.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Great, thanks. And a quick follow-up on the guide. I know you've discussed the revenue guide previously, but by my math and my math maybe off, I'm getting like a mid-single digit pro forma year-over-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter. Is that the trough that they should expect?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    From a growth rate perspective, yeah, they don't -- they certainly carry out not. That is -- that is up against a difficult comparison from the fourth quarter a year ago with a very robust mortgage business. They certainly are not operating a -- that type of growth business latitude in aggregate. So in that respect, in terms of revenue growth, yes. It is a unique comparison, both the third and fourth quarter are tough comparisons when you consider the change in the revenue groundwork for the mortgage business.

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you so much.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Rob Wildhack of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open.

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Hi guys. J.D., from your commentary earlier it sounded like they could infer that variable marketing dollars in mortgage were up year-over-year. Is that correct?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Variable marketing dollars year-over-year, no. We've seen -- I'm not sure which commentary you're referring to, I apologize. Which statement you're referring to?

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    I assume I'd acquire to lag back and check, but they can carry out that offline. Maybe more broadly I wanted to question about the sale of ad inventory. carry out you consider that to exist like a "lever" that you acquire one flexing marketing spend. And if you do, how far down the list of options is a determination like this?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Yeah. On the ad selling, I would, again, that is a sort of a substitute/complement, not really a lever. Basically you carry out a syndication deal with, let's say, a CNN, where we're going to attach LendingTree rate tables, widgets, app downloads, opportunities, et cetera, et cetera on a site like CNN. You attach the LendingTree applicable units there until the terminal profitable dollar and then whenever you can, and then whenever it's not profitable, it's easy to sell that excess inventory out to third parties. So I wouldn't perceive it as a lever. And quite frankly it's not something that I necessarily really focus on, because over time as LendingTree monetization improves, those ad units will exist absorbed by LendingTree.

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Got it. Thank you.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    And, Rob, to reply -- to try to reply your first question just because they always want to carry out that. No, the dollars from mortgage and aggregate were certainly down. The percentage is flat quarter -- from Q3 of terminal year.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Your line is now open.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Hi, sterling morning. Could you talk about how swift you can on board these acquisitions? Are they quickly generating traffic and revenue from -- coming onto your platform, how -- or are they still on a stand-alone basis?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Hamed, much question, I really value that, and it's something they probably used to focus on. They are able to, for the most part, predict what synergies were going to procure before they even carry out the deal, because they can perceive what either changing the brand appellation is going to carry out or, for example, with -- they bought one SEO business and those guys are now running SEO across the whole company. So we're seeing synergies chance very, very fast, and I got it lag hats off to their team here who really, really digs in everywhere from HR to Finance to Operations, and they like to summon it the entrepreneur without the headaches. Every time they bring one of these guys in, they snort listen, we'll wield your capital, we're going to wield totality those things that it takes to Run a business from a corporate standpoint, and totality you got to carry out is lag grow your business, and then they attach people. They acquire much integration teams and knock on wood, totality of these acquisitions acquire been very, very accretive for us. You can't bat a thousand in the M&A world, but I'm just thrilled with where their team has done it, and the synergies, if anything I assume they underestimate them in some of their earlier deals.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay. And then as far as just the -- J.D. made remark about peak margin on the VMM. Is it becoming dilutive being in so many different products that you acquire to advertise each of them individually, and when carry out you start to carry out it in more of a platform setting?

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    So, yeah, you try to carry out both. So, for example, you might Run and ad that features somebody buying a home or somebody getting a mortgage or somebody getting a credit card, but typically you tried to likewise at the cessation talk about totality of the loan types, so you can bring in traffic that way. But no, you -- the more products you have, I like to summon it the more marketable events you have, and the more marketable events you have, the more you can optimize where you status those events across the web or across TV. So the more products, the better, and they carry out acquire some ads that Run where they talk about everything and you can anticipate to perceive some more of that, but you just basically carry out whatever works, and you try to blend in individual product spots to command a specific story, but then likewise tried to say, hey, but we're likewise here for everything.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    And, Hamed, I'd actually snort it's benevolent of the opposite. totality of these non-mortgage businesses are benefiting from draft traffic. And so, Doug made reference to it before, in terms of somebody coming in for mortgage and going somewhere else, and like every Internet company we're getting smarter in terms of tracking this and using data science to carry out that. Right. So what's very evident to us, is that, totality of these other businesses are benefiting from draft traffic from not just mortgage but from each other, and that's the benefit of an acquired company coming onto the platform is that they procure that traffic. And so the aggregate brand is contributing to them in a pretty material way, and that equally procure smarter about this over time, and obviously deals with attribution models and we've got to pencil it totality out. But it's really exciting actually when you perceive what benefit they can procure from being piece of the platform.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    So is your cost going up, is that why you're using the word dilutive in your commentary or peak?

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    No, no, no. When they snort peak, what we're referring to is the fact that the VMM of 39% was the highest since what first quarter of '15. That's totality what we're referring to. Now, as you know, we've managed the business for dollars. And so that VMM percentage may sweep from the low 30s to the tall 30s. I'm simply referring to the fact that at 39% that was a tall number relative to recent history.

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    Okay, thank you.

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    But there was -- I didn't -- yeah, I'm not adage it's dilutive at all.

    Operator

    Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the summon back over to Doug Lebda, the CEO, for any closing remarks.

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you operator, and thank you totality for joining today and thank you for the really, really thoughtful questions. I'd just like to nigh with one comment. Around LendingTree, they always talk about trying to get sure they totality assume and act like owners, and they don't requisite to just attach ourselves in your shoes, everybody here is an owner in LendingTree equity, and they assume about it in the identical terms that you do. And one other things that I assume about as an investor, that I'm just thrilled with as I perceive over the years is the resilience of their business model. For those of you acquire been around a long time, you recollect when they sold their mortgage company, they thought -- people thought, oh my gosh, this guy will tumble in mortgage, we've had various mortgage rate changes over the years. You recollect a few years ago the personal loan business was going to completely evaporate and lag away. They had pressures in card or worries about card. And through each and every one of those, LendingTree has been able to grow through them all. Each time it gives us a lot more self-confidence in their business and in their faculty to execute that they can not only survive but likewise thrive through different macro environments. Their lender network is strong, their team is executing incredibly well, and I'm very confident and optimistic about their future, and I perceive forward to sharing their long sweep way and lots of novel information at Investor Day and a itsy-bitsy over a month.

    Thank you totality very much, and we'll talk to you soon.

    Operator

    Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone acquire a much day.

    Duration: 66 minutes

    Call participants:

    Douglas Lebda -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    J.D. Moriarty -- Chief pecuniary Officer

    Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Nathaniel Schindler -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    John Campbell -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

    Jed Kelly -- Oppenheimer & Co. -- Analyst

    Michael Grondahl -- Northland Securities -- Analyst

    Michael Tarkan -- Compass Point Research & Trading LLC -- Analyst

    Youssef Squali -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

    Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

    Eric Wasserstrom -- UBS -- Analyst

    Kunal Madhukar -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

    Robert Wildhack -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

    Hamed Khorsand -- BWS Financial, Inc. -- Analyst

    More TREE analysis

    Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

    This article is a transcript of this conference summon produced for The Motley Fool. While they strive for their fatuous Best, there may exist errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with totality their articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your Use of this content, and they strongly cheer you to carry out your own research, including listening to the summon yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. please perceive their Terms and Conditions for additional details, including their Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

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    Why automation will not acquire away jobs | killexams.com existent questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Image: Shutterstock

    Image: Shutterstock

    Here's an age-old paradox that comes up with every leap of technological advancement: Will automation acquire away jobs from people?

    Let’s start with a question that is easier to answer, because it’s in retrospect. Has automation taken away jobs from people?

    You would anticipate the reply to exist a simple yes or no, based on data, but there’s the catch. It likewise depends on how they perceive at it.

    For centuries, many, probably most of the technological innovations acquire been created with an intent to supersede human labor. Starting with the ancient farming equipment, perquisite up to assembly lines, computing machines, ATMs, and recent technologies; the intent has been the same. The population eligible for economic activities, or “work”, has increased manifold during this time. Does that exist significant jobs acquire reduced? Definitely not. On the contrary, employment rates acquire consistently increased in each one of these areas.

    Let’s acquire assembly lines, for example. Assembly lines were designed to simply reduce the manual labor, but accomplished a lot more. That did not mean, however, that the number of people working in factories reduced. Granted, the number of people required to procure a car out of production might acquire reduced, and in most cases people were taken off the jobs they did in respective manufacturing departments.  However, what likewise happened is that more cars were manufactured, there was more money available to set up factories, and over time, labor-intensive jobs were upgraded or redesigned. Hence, more jobs were created.

    If they talk of banking, ATMs acquire a similar story. These machines were designed to ‘replace tellers completely’. In effect, while ATMs became omnipresent and inevitable for totality banking, the number of tellers (or teller work profiles) employed by banks increased manifold as well. Banks figured they could open up more branches, and in these branches the benevolent of work tellers did was more than just counting cash and dispensing money. They were likewise focusing on customers and customers' specific requirements, in turn, structure more business for the bank. The virtuous cycle of skill upgrade and higher output sustained despite totality further advancements in technology.

    What’s novel this time?The claim that recent technological advancements, especially automation, simulated intelligence, robotics, internet of things (IoT) are a threat to jobs is an dispute that's turned on its head.

    When you assume of the benevolent of jobs automation replaced in the past, it was mostly in the manual labour or blue collar category. terminal couple of decades' advancements in workflow software, content management, productivity software, business rules management, including the recent robotic process automation – in short, most information technologies – have, in fact, aided progress in orchestration and determination making as well. This means that not only the data entry folks, but supervision and management jobs acquire likewise been replaced by technologies.

    This trend – of replacing human determination making and management skills – is further speeding up with advancements in analytics and AI, including further automation in the areas of business process management.

    Does that exist significant that middle managers and lore workers would lose jobs? The reply is, no.

    Granted, the threat is real. However, they will acquire to perceive at the underlying pattern here. And, that pattern is - “automation primarily replaces the repetitive, mundane and routine parts of a lore worker’s job, freeing up the individual’s bandwidth to perform the existent tasks expected of the lore worker, likewise creating further cash current for the business to grow and as a whole the scope of work expected of people”.

    The flip side of this dispute is that those with a particular manual skill are still losing their jobs. Obviously, there’s an immediate pressure on people to upgrade their skills or change working habits to perform existent lore work.  However, that is what acquire precisely been the expectations of business as well as workers, since forever. People procure bored doing the identical things over and over again, and without an external impetus to ameliorate their working environment, the productivity as well as motivation goes down over time.

    So, in essence, automation is not actually taking away jobs. It is only nudging people to perform more fulfilling and progressive tasks. It is allowing businesses to create a more balanced working environment, where people can apply their taste and determination making skills. Automation, in this sense, is a major boost to lore worker empowerment.

    Net, Net;In every business, work profiles are separated into several strata. People are still locked into mundane, routine activities, which are mostly tiring and draining. Enterprises want to lag forward and grow, and lower productivity and demotivated workforce are huge bottlenecks. Automation frees up dormant human talent, equips enterprises to accomplish more, creates more tall value jobs and empowers lore workers.

    The author is Senior Vice President Technology, Newgen Software

    Thank you for your comment, they value your persuasion and the time you took to write to us!



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